Natural Gas retreats as US jobless claims trigger another leg of US Dollar weakness


Share:
  • Natural Gas prices are steady in the range between $3.20 and $3.70 for November.
  • The US Dollar reverses and is flirting with the low of this week in the DXY
  • Natural Gas prices are expected to remain stable as both demand and supply are steady.

Natural Gas (XNG/USD) is trying to cling on to gains as an uptick in US Jobless data erases a positive mood. More broader, gas prices are starting to form a pure technical range on the charts as both supply and demand are showing signs of easing. On the demand side, positive China data could point to a quicker recovery and thus a pickup in demand from Asia’s biggest gas consumer. On the supply side, no real production hiccups or bottlenecks that could distort near-term flows are at hand. 

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) heads lower again ahead of the US opening bell, after the sharp decline seen on Tuesday, when US inflation data revealed further abating price pressures. With the US Federal Reserve likely done hiking, bets are rising on when the first cut will materialise, erasing the positive rate differential support for the Greenback against most major peers. Traders will keep looking for clues with the US Dollar Index (DXY) at risk to decline further. 

Natural Gas is trading at $3.31 per MMBtu at the time of writing.  

Natural Gas market movers: Weaker Dollar erases earlier gains

  • Just ahead of the US opening bell gas prices are erasing their intraday gains as the US Dollar drops lower again on the back of higher weekly US Jobless Claims. 
  • Recent weather models show that a cold front is approaching Northern Europe with temperatures in Scandinavian capitals to flirt with 0° Celcius. 
  • European Natural Gas prices were declining earlier for a third consecutive day as robust deliveries to the bloc are avoiding pulling gas out of the storages, which are still 99% full. 
  • A mild start of the fall and winter season in Europe has given the bloc a bigger advantage to get through the colder period. 
  • The EU has issued further rules on Methane restrictions, where Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) could see more demand come in as LNG is a greener alternative to Methane use and is exempt from any emission reductions rules. 
  • Around 15:30 GMT, the Energy Information Agency (EIA) will issue the weekly US gas storage numbers for last week. Expectations are for an increase of 40 billion cubic feet, less than the  79 billion cubic feet seen a week earlier.  Estimations range from 33 billion to 49 billion.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis: broader bandwidth

Natural Gas has found some steady ground after a rather volatile October, when the Israel-Gaza tensions were throwing Gas traders left and right. With headlines starting to fade in the region, and the EU not facing substantial shortages for this winter, it looks that Gas prices might trade in this range for some time. Unless a catalyst that either triggers substantial shortage or oversupply, a breakout isn’t expected in the coming days. 

Should a proxy war in the Middle East develop, $3.64, will be the level to watch for as prices would soar. A risk premium would be priced in if Iran, Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region started mobilising forces. In such a case, even a quick sprint to $4.33, the high of 2023, could be expected. 

On the downside, the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is doing its work near $3.20, based on the peak seen on October 4. In case this level is unable to hold any selling pressure, expect to see prices going down towards the orange line, from the double top in August near $3.06. That level should be able to act as the last line of defence before gas prices retreat below $3.

XNG/USD (Daily Chart)

XNG/USD (Daily Chart)

(This story was corrected on November 16 at 13:25 GMT to state that Natural Gas prices had been declining previously, not at the moment)

Natural Gas FAQs

What fundamental factors drive the price of Natural Gas?

Supply and demand dynamics are a key factor influencing Natural Gas prices, and are themselves influenced by global economic growth, industrial activity, population growth, production levels, and inventories. The weather impacts Natural Gas prices because more Gas is used during cold winters and hot summers for heating and cooling. Competition from other energy sources impacts prices as consumers may switch to cheaper sources. Geopolitical events are factors as exemplified by the war in Ukraine. Government policies relating to extraction, transportation, and environmental issues also impact prices.

What are the main macroeconomic releases that impact on Natural Gas Prices?

The main economic release influencing Natural Gas prices is the weekly inventory bulletin from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), a US government agency that produces US gas market data. The EIA Gas bulletin usually comes out on Thursday at 14:30 GMT, a day after the EIA publishes its weekly Oil bulletin. Economic data from large consumers of Natural Gas can impact supply and demand, the largest of which include China, Germany and Japan. Natural Gas is primarily priced and traded in US Dollars, thus economic releases impacting the US Dollar are also factors.

How does the US Dollar influence Natural Gas prices?

The US Dollar is the world’s reserve currency and most commodities, including Natural Gas are priced and traded on international markets in US Dollars. As such, the value of the US Dollar is a factor in the price of Natural Gas, because if the Dollar strengthens it means less Dollars are required to buy the same volume of Gas (the price falls), and vice versa if USD strengthens.

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Follow us on Telegram

Stay updated of all the news

Join Telegram

Recommended content


Follow us on Telegram

Stay updated of all the news

Join Telegram

Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD holds steady near 1.0800 ahead of Fed Minutes

EUR/USD holds steady near 1.0800 ahead of Fed Minutes

EUR/USD fluctuates in a narrow channel at around 1.0800 in the European trading hours on Wednesday after closing the fifth consecutive day in positive territory on Tuesday. The US Dollar stays resilient against its rivals and limits the pair's upside FOMC Minutes.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD consolidates gains above 1.2600

GBP/USD consolidates gains above 1.2600

GBP/USD consolidates Tuesday's gains and trades above 1.2600 in the European session on Wednesday. The pair struggles to gain traction amid a resurgent US Dollar demand as risk sentiment turns sour. The focus now shifts to the Fed Minutes, BoE- and Fed-speak.

GBP/USD News

Gold stabilizes near $2,030, eyes on FOMC Minutes

Gold stabilizes near $2,030, eyes on FOMC Minutes

Gold clings to marginal daily gains at around $2,030 on Wednesday after closing the first two days of the week in positive territory. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield edges lower ahead of FOMC Minutes, helping XAU/USD hold its ground.

Gold News

Bitcoin is 23% away from ATHs, but retail is still not here, why?

Bitcoin is 23% away from ATHs, but retail is still not here, why?

Bitcoin’s journey so far has been nothing short of shocking. From ETF approval to countries warming up to crypto regulation, the crypto landscape seems to have changed quite a bit.

Read more

Will the FOMC Minutes give clues on the timing of rate cuts?

Will the FOMC Minutes give clues on the timing of rate cuts?

Tonight, Minutes from the FOMC's January meeting will be released. Markets will keep a close eye on any clues regarding the timing of the first rate cut, which we now expect to come in May.

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures