- The Mexican Peso edges up on Monday as the market mood remains positive following US and Chinese data.
- The Mexican economy continues to expand despite restrictive monetary policy – a positive for the Peso.
- Technically, the USD/MXN is trading along the floor of a sideways range in the short-term.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) trades marginally higher on Monday, supported by a rise in risk appetite after lower-than-expected US jobs’ data raised hopes the Federal Reserve (Fed) will move to cut interest rates, reducing borrowing costs for businesses and consumers.
The positive market mood continued into the Asian session on Monday on the back of Chinese data, further supporting the Peso which appreciates in risk-on environments.
USD/MXN is trading at 16.92, EUR/MXN at 18.22 and GBP/MXN at 21.28, at the time of publication.
Mexican Peso trades higher as market mood remains upbeat
The Mexican Peso edges higher on Monday as Asian stock markets rally after the release of the China Caixin Services PMI data shows continued expansion, and following weak US jobs data on Friday, which increased hopes interest rates might fall. In Japan the Nikkei closed 0.93% higher, China’s Shanghai Composite trades 1.16% higher at time of writing and the Hang Seng is up 0.53%.
Mexican data surprisingly good
In Mexico, the flow of recent economic data continues to point to an economy that is performing surprisingly well under the yoke of the historically high interest rates imposed by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to curb inflation.
Although the GDP growth rate in Mexico was lower on a yearly basis in Q1 it rose 0.2% quarter-on-quarter; April’s Manufacturing PMI remained in expansive territory; Business Confidence in April edged lower but not by much, and Gross Fixed Investment in February beat expectations.
Additionally, in a recent poll, a majority of private analysts expected inflation to rise to 4.20% in 2024, which was up from the March estimate of 4.10%, revealed Banxico.
The data points to Banxico likely keeping interest rates at their elevated 11.0% for now, which supports the Peso since it boosts foreign capital inflows.
Technical Analysis: USD/MXN lies on the floor of short-term range
USD/MXN – the cost of one US Dollar in Mexican Pesos – is still range bound and trending sideways in the short-term. The pair has been oscillating between a floor at 16.86 and a ceiling at 17.40 since the April 19 blow off.
USD/MXN 4-hour Chart
Given the old trading maxim, the “trend is your friend”, the short-term trend is expected to continue until the weight of evidence proves otherwise. Although USD/MXN made an attempt to break out of its range on Friday, bearish pressure was insufficient to push through and prices recovered back inside the range. There is a slight bearish bias, however, given the medium and long-term trends are bearish and these bigger currents influence the shorter-term perspective.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has crossed above its signal line, offering a buy signal which could suggest the pair is about to start rising back up within its range.
More upside could take the USD/MXN up to the 50 Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart at 17.06, followed by the lower high at 17.15. A clear break above the zone of resistance around 17.15-17.18 might see further gains up towards the range highs again.
A decisive breakout of the range – either below the floor at 16.86, or the ceiling at 17.40 – would change the directional bias of the pair.
A break below the floor could see further downside to a target at 16.50, followed by the April 9 low at 16.26.
On the other side, a break above the top would activate an upside target first at 17.67, piercing a long-term trendline and then possibly reaching a further target at around 18.15.
A decisive break would be one characterized by a longer-than-average green or red daily candlestick that pierces above or below the range high or low, and that closes near its high or low for the period; or three green/red candlesticks in a row that pierce above/below the respective levels.
Mexican Peso FAQs
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD retreats toward 1.0850 on modest USD recovery
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure and trades in negative territory at around 1.0850 after closing modestly lower on Thursday. In the absence of macroeconomic data releases, investors will continue to pay close attention to comments from Federal Reserve officials.
GBP/USD holds above 1.2650 following earlier decline
GBP/USD edges higher after falling to a daily low below 1.2650 in the European session on Friday. The US Dollar holds its ground following the selloff seen after April inflation data and makes it difficult for the pair to extend its rebound. Fed policymakers are scheduled to speak later in the day.
Gold climbs to multi-week highs above $2,400
Gold gathered bullish momentum and touched its highest level in nearly a month above $2,400. Although the benchmark 10-year US yield holds steady at around 4.4%, the cautious market stance supports XAU/USD heading into the weekend.
Chainlink social dominance hits six-month peak as LINK extends gains
-637336005550289133_XtraSmall.jpg)
Chainlink (LINK) social dominance increased sharply on Friday, exceeding levels seen in the past six months, along with the token’s price rally that started on Wednesday.
Week ahead: Flash PMIs, UK and Japan CPIs in focus – RBNZ to hold rates
After cool US CPI, attention shifts to UK and Japanese inflation. Flash PMIs will be watched too amid signs of a rebound in Europe. Fed to stay in the spotlight as plethora of speakers, minutes on tap.