Malaysia: GDP figures remain healthy in Q3 – UOB


UOB Group’s Senior Economist Julia Goh and Economist Loke Siew Ting review the latest GDP figures in Malaysia.

Key Takeaways

Malaysia’s final GDP growth edged up to 3.3% y/y in 3Q23 (from +2.9% in 2Q23), matching the advance estimate reading released on 20 Oct. On a seasonally adjusted basis, real GDP posted the largest expansion in five quarters by 2.6% q/q (2Q23: +1.5%), suggesting a sustained recovery amid rising challenges and an accommodative monetary policy stance during the quarter.

3Q23’s real GDP growth was mainly anchored by resilient domestic demand and stock replenishment activities. An improvement in the services, agriculture and construction sectors helped to cushion the sluggishness in the manufacturing and mining & quarrying sectors last quarter. Although the external sector remained weak, but the country was still able to record a sustained current account surplus of MYR9.1bn or 2.0% of GDP in 3Q23 (2Q23: +MYR9.1bn or 2.1%). 

Cumulatively, real GDP growth stood at 3.9% in the first nine months of 2023 (Jan-Sep 2022: +9.2%). The larger seasonally adjusted GDP growth implies the persistence of a gradual recovery in the economy in 4Q23, which we estimate at ~4.0% y/y. It will take the full-year growth rate to ~4.0% for 2023, in line with our existing projection and the Ministry of Finance (MOF)’s revised growth target of ~4.0%. We expect the growth momentum to improve further to 4.6% in 2024 (MOF est: 4.0%-5.0% or mid-point forecast of 4.8%), backed by a base case scenario of a soft landing in the global economy despite rising global uncertainties. This respectable growth outlook along with broad market expectations of a Fed easing starting from the middle of 2024 continue to support our call for the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) to stay unchanged at 3.00% through 2024. 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD hovers above 1.0850 amid dour mood

EUR/USD hovers above 1.0850 amid dour mood

EUR/USD is oscillating in a tight range above 1.0850 in early Europe on Tuesday. The pair stays cautious due to risk-off sentiment and a modest US Dollar uptick, as investors weigh the ECB and Fed rate cut expectations. The focus now remains on speeches from Fed officials. 

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD posts small gains above 1.2700, awaits fresh catalysts

GBP/USD posts small gains above 1.2700, awaits fresh catalysts

GBP/USD holds small gains above 1.2700 in European trading on Tuesday. Investors await fresh catalysts, with several Federal Reserve speakers and BoE Governor Andrew set to speak. Tuesday's Fedspeak weighed on rate cut expectations and fuelled a fresh US Dollar advance. 

GBP/USD News

Gold price loses its recovery momentum amid renewed US Dollar demand

Gold price loses its recovery momentum amid renewed US Dollar demand

Gold price (XAU/USD) loses traction on Tuesday after reaching a record high earlier. The lack of fresh catalysts in a quiet session in terms of top-tier economic data might limit the precious metal’s upside.

Gold News

Shiba Inu price flashes buy signal, 25% rally likely Premium

Shiba Inu price flashes buy signal, 25% rally likely

Shiba Inu price has flipped bullish to the tune of the crypto market and breached key hurdles, showing signs of a potential rally. Investors looking to accumulate SHIB have a good opportunity to do so before the meme coin shoots up.

Read more

Three fundamentals for the week: UK inflation, Fed minutes and Flash PMIs stand out Premium

Three fundamentals for the week: UK inflation, Fed minutes and Flash PMIs stand out

Sell in May and go away? That market adage seems outdated in the face of new highs for stocks and Gold. Optimism depends on the easing from central banks – and some clues are due this week.

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures