Is BoE Governor Bailey a Swiftie? – UBS

UK June inflation was broadly as expected, and on target. However, the popular music artist Taylor Swift had several UK concerts in June. Swifties need some place to stay. Hotel price increases were a very sizable part of June inflation, UBS macro strategist Paul Donovan notes.

Trump to tax US consumers of goods partially made overseas

“The popular music artist Taylor Swift had several UK concerts in June. Swifties need some place to stay. Hotel price increases were a very sizable part of June inflation. BoE Governor Bailey should ignore this effect. Goods prices, and in particular durable goods prices, remain firmly in deflation. Producer price inflation was weaker than expected.”

“US May industrial production data is due. It is of some interest to the markets, but not normally a major driver of assets. Yesterday’s retail sales strength (never go short the hedonism of the US consumer) was in contrast to pessimism expressed in sentiment surveys—and the failings of sentiment surveys may carry into business sentiment polls.”

“Former US President Trump said he would allow Federal Reserve Chair Powell to complete his term. However, Trump reiterated a desire to aggressively tax US consumers of goods partially made overseas—tariff risks are something investors need to consider. The Fed’s Beige Book of economic anecdotes will be published. Economists care (but political partisanship may infect the responses).”