|

Is BoE Governor Bailey a Swiftie? – UBS

UK June inflation was broadly as expected, and on target. However, the popular music artist Taylor Swift had several UK concerts in June. Swifties need some place to stay. Hotel price increases were a very sizable part of June inflation, UBS macro strategist Paul Donovan notes.

Trump to tax US consumers of goods partially made overseas

“The popular music artist Taylor Swift had several UK concerts in June. Swifties need some place to stay. Hotel price increases were a very sizable part of June inflation. BoE Governor Bailey should ignore this effect. Goods prices, and in particular durable goods prices, remain firmly in deflation. Producer price inflation was weaker than expected.”

“US May industrial production data is due. It is of some interest to the markets, but not normally a major driver of assets. Yesterday’s retail sales strength (never go short the hedonism of the US consumer) was in contrast to pessimism expressed in sentiment surveys—and the failings of sentiment surveys may carry into business sentiment polls.”

“Former US President Trump said he would allow Federal Reserve Chair Powell to complete his term. However, Trump reiterated a desire to aggressively tax US consumers of goods partially made overseas—tariff risks are something investors need to consider. The Fed’s Beige Book of economic anecdotes will be published. Economists care (but political partisanship may infect the responses).”

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD recovers to 1.1750 region as 2025 draws to a close

Following the bearish action seen in the European session on Wednesday, EUR/USD regains its traction and recovery to the 1.1750 region. Nevertheless, the pair's volatility remains low as trading conditions thin out on the last day of the year.

GBP/USD stays weak near 1.3450 on modest USD recovery

GBP/USD remains under modest beairsh pressure and fluctuates at around 1.3450 on Wednesday. The US Dollar finds fresh demand due to the end-of-the-year position adjustments, weighing on the pair amid the pre-New Year trading lull. 

Gold retreats to $4,300 area, looks to post monthly gains

Gold stays on the back foot on the last day of 2025 and trades near $4,300, possibly pressured by profit-taking and position adjustments. Nevertheless, XAU/USD remains on track to post gains for December and extend its winning streak into a fifth consecutive month.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP prepare for a potential New Year rebound

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple are holding steady on Wednesday after recording minor gains on the previous day. Technically, Bitcoin could extend gains within a triangle pattern while Ethereum and Ripple face critical overhead resistance. 

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).