Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD aims to recapture a 10-week high around $1,770 as less-hawkish Fed bets soar


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  • Gold price is marginally from the 200-EMA as Fed may slow down the current pace of rate hikes.
  • The 10-year US Treasury yields have witnessed a bloodbath as bets over 75 bps rate hike have plummeted.
  • A sheer decline in consumer spending is responsible for lower-than-projected US CPI data.

Gold price (XAUUSD) has witnessed a juggernaut rally after a sheer decline in US inflation figures on Thursday. The precious metal gained around 3% from Wednesday’s closing price and is now expected to recapture a 10-week high at $1,765.58 ahead.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) nose-dived to 107.80 as a bumper decline in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) has accelerated the odds for a less-hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers for December monetary policy meeting. The 10-year US Treasury yields have witnessed a bloodbath and have dropped to 3.8% as chances for a fifth consecutive 75 basis point (bps) rate hike have plummeted below 15%, as per the CME FedWatch tool.

Thanks to the sheer decline in consumer spending in the third quarter of CY2022 that the headline CPI dropped to 7.7% and core CPI declined to 6.3%. Now, chatters over increasing peak for the terminal rate by the Fed may pause for a while and Fed chair Jerome Powell will also discuss supporting the economic prospects too to safeguard the economy from a recession situation.

The market participants should be aware of the fact that the US markets will remain closed on Friday on account of Veterans Day.

Gold technical analysis

On the daily scale, the gold price is marginally far from kissing the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,758.00 for the first time in the past five months. The horizontal resistance placed from August 10 high at $1,807.93 will act as major hurdle ahead.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has overstepped 60.00 for the first time in seven months, showing no signs of divergence and overbought.

Gold daily chart

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price 1754.36
Today Daily Change 49.78
Today Daily Change % 2.92
Today daily open 1704.58
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 1656.1
Daily SMA50 1673.51
Daily SMA100 1716.29
Daily SMA200 1803.93
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 1722.4
Previous Daily Low 1702.23
Previous Weekly High 1682.49
Previous Weekly Low 1616.69
Previous Monthly High 1729.58
Previous Monthly Low 1617.35
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1709.93
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1714.7
Daily Pivot Point S1 1697.07
Daily Pivot Point S2 1689.57
Daily Pivot Point S3 1676.9
Daily Pivot Point R1 1717.24
Daily Pivot Point R2 1729.91
Daily Pivot Point R3 1737.41

 

 

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