Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD retreats from three-month top as Russia-linked fears ebb


Gold (XAU/USD) remains pressured around an intraday low of $1,851, paring the heaviest daily jump in a month heading into Monday’s European session.

The yellow metal rallied the previous day as market players rushed towards risk-safety on geopolitical fears emanating from Russia. Adding to the bullish bias were global inflation fears, as well as easing probabilities for a 0.50% rate hike by the Fed following softer US sentiment data.

It should, however, be noted that a sluggish start to the week joined Ukraine’s request to Russia for a meeting to tame the risk-off mood and trigger a pullback in the gold prices from a three-month high.

Even so, US Treasury yields and equities in Asia-Pacific trade mixed while stock futures in the US and Europe print mild gains by the press time.

That said, gold traders await clear updates from Russia, as well as comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, for intraday direction. However, major importance will be given to Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes.

Technical analysis

Although nearly overbought RSI conditions triggered gold’s recent pullback, the metal sellers will undoubtedly wait for a clear downside break of the previous resistance line, near $1,850 to convince markets.

Also acting as a downside filter is a five-week-old horizontal support zone near $1,830 and the key SMAs surrounding $1,818-17.

Although bullish MACD signals keep gold buyers hopeful, a clear downside break of $1,817 won’t hesitate to welcome sellers targeting the previous month’s low near $1,780.

Meanwhile, an upward sloping trend line from early January, near $1,873 guards the immediate advances of the metal, a break of which will direct hold buyers towards the $1,900 round figure.

In a case where gold buyers manage to keep reins past $1,900, tops marked during June and January 2021, respectively near $1,917 and $1,960 will be in focus.

Overall, gold consolidates recent gains but is not out of the woods.

Gold: Four-hour chart

Trend: Pullback expected

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price 1853.76
Today Daily Change -7.47
Today Daily Change % -0.40%
Today daily open 1861.23
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 1821.41
Daily SMA50 1808.78
Daily SMA100 1800.46
Daily SMA200 1807.18
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 1865.51
Previous Daily Low 1820.98
Previous Weekly High 1865.51
Previous Weekly Low 1806.9
Previous Monthly High 1853.91
Previous Monthly Low 1780.32
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1848.5
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1837.99
Daily Pivot Point S1 1832.97
Daily Pivot Point S2 1804.71
Daily Pivot Point S3 1788.44
Daily Pivot Point R1 1877.5
Daily Pivot Point R2 1893.77
Daily Pivot Point R3 1922.03

 

 

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