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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD retreats from three-month top as Russia-linked fears ebb

Gold (XAU/USD) remains pressured around an intraday low of $1,851, paring the heaviest daily jump in a month heading into Monday’s European session.

The yellow metal rallied the previous day as market players rushed towards risk-safety on geopolitical fears emanating from Russia. Adding to the bullish bias were global inflation fears, as well as easing probabilities for a 0.50% rate hike by the Fed following softer US sentiment data.

It should, however, be noted that a sluggish start to the week joined Ukraine’s request to Russia for a meeting to tame the risk-off mood and trigger a pullback in the gold prices from a three-month high.

Even so, US Treasury yields and equities in Asia-Pacific trade mixed while stock futures in the US and Europe print mild gains by the press time.

That said, gold traders await clear updates from Russia, as well as comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, for intraday direction. However, major importance will be given to Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes.

Technical analysis

Although nearly overbought RSI conditions triggered gold’s recent pullback, the metal sellers will undoubtedly wait for a clear downside break of the previous resistance line, near $1,850 to convince markets.

Also acting as a downside filter is a five-week-old horizontal support zone near $1,830 and the key SMAs surrounding $1,818-17.

Although bullish MACD signals keep gold buyers hopeful, a clear downside break of $1,817 won’t hesitate to welcome sellers targeting the previous month’s low near $1,780.

Meanwhile, an upward sloping trend line from early January, near $1,873 guards the immediate advances of the metal, a break of which will direct hold buyers towards the $1,900 round figure.

In a case where gold buyers manage to keep reins past $1,900, tops marked during June and January 2021, respectively near $1,917 and $1,960 will be in focus.

Overall, gold consolidates recent gains but is not out of the woods.

Gold: Four-hour chart

Trend: Pullback expected

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price1853.76
Today Daily Change-7.47
Today Daily Change %-0.40%
Today daily open1861.23
 
Trends
Daily SMA201821.41
Daily SMA501808.78
Daily SMA1001800.46
Daily SMA2001807.18
 
Levels
Previous Daily High1865.51
Previous Daily Low1820.98
Previous Weekly High1865.51
Previous Weekly Low1806.9
Previous Monthly High1853.91
Previous Monthly Low1780.32
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1848.5
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1837.99
Daily Pivot Point S11832.97
Daily Pivot Point S21804.71
Daily Pivot Point S31788.44
Daily Pivot Point R11877.5
Daily Pivot Point R21893.77
Daily Pivot Point R31922.03

Author

Anil Panchal

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

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