Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD retreats from three-month top as Russia-linked fears ebb


Gold (XAU/USD) remains pressured around an intraday low of $1,851, paring the heaviest daily jump in a month heading into Monday’s European session.

The yellow metal rallied the previous day as market players rushed towards risk-safety on geopolitical fears emanating from Russia. Adding to the bullish bias were global inflation fears, as well as easing probabilities for a 0.50% rate hike by the Fed following softer US sentiment data.

It should, however, be noted that a sluggish start to the week joined Ukraine’s request to Russia for a meeting to tame the risk-off mood and trigger a pullback in the gold prices from a three-month high.

Even so, US Treasury yields and equities in Asia-Pacific trade mixed while stock futures in the US and Europe print mild gains by the press time.

That said, gold traders await clear updates from Russia, as well as comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, for intraday direction. However, major importance will be given to Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes.

Technical analysis

Although nearly overbought RSI conditions triggered gold’s recent pullback, the metal sellers will undoubtedly wait for a clear downside break of the previous resistance line, near $1,850 to convince markets.

Also acting as a downside filter is a five-week-old horizontal support zone near $1,830 and the key SMAs surrounding $1,818-17.

Although bullish MACD signals keep gold buyers hopeful, a clear downside break of $1,817 won’t hesitate to welcome sellers targeting the previous month’s low near $1,780.

Meanwhile, an upward sloping trend line from early January, near $1,873 guards the immediate advances of the metal, a break of which will direct hold buyers towards the $1,900 round figure.

In a case where gold buyers manage to keep reins past $1,900, tops marked during June and January 2021, respectively near $1,917 and $1,960 will be in focus.

Overall, gold consolidates recent gains but is not out of the woods.

Gold: Four-hour chart

Trend: Pullback expected

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price 1853.76
Today Daily Change -7.47
Today Daily Change % -0.40%
Today daily open 1861.23
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 1821.41
Daily SMA50 1808.78
Daily SMA100 1800.46
Daily SMA200 1807.18
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 1865.51
Previous Daily Low 1820.98
Previous Weekly High 1865.51
Previous Weekly Low 1806.9
Previous Monthly High 1853.91
Previous Monthly Low 1780.32
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1848.5
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1837.99
Daily Pivot Point S1 1832.97
Daily Pivot Point S2 1804.71
Daily Pivot Point S3 1788.44
Daily Pivot Point R1 1877.5
Daily Pivot Point R2 1893.77
Daily Pivot Point R3 1922.03

 

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD appears side-lined around 1.1700 ahead of Fed Minutes

EUR/USD appears side-lined around 1.1700 ahead of Fed Minutes

EUR/USD remains under modest downward pressure, trading just above 1.1700 amid a consolidative range on Wednesday. The pair's bearish tone comes as President Donald Trump announced additional tariffs and hinted that more are coming, maintaining market uncertainty. In the meantime, traders are waiting for the FOMC Minutes, which could shed more light on the Fed's potential rate path.

GBP/USD extends its consolidation below 1.3600

GBP/USD extends its consolidation below 1.3600

GBP/USD alternates gains with losses on Wednesday, embarking on a range-bound theme just below the 1.3600 barrier. The cautious market sentiment caused by the uncertainties surrounding US trade policies allows the US Dollar to remain resilient against its peers while limiting Cable’s upside.

Gold recovers above $3,300 on another round of Trump letters

Gold recovers above $3,300 on another round of Trump letters

Despite lacklustre gains in the US Dollar and declining US yields across the board, Gold regained traction and advanced modestly north of the key $3,300 per troy ounce on Wednesday. The improved tone in the precious metal remains propped up by uncertainty on the trade front, while traders shift theur focus to the release of the FOMC Minutes.

Fed Minutes to offer clues on next rate cuts amid tariff turmoil

Fed Minutes to offer clues on next rate cuts amid tariff turmoil

The Minutes of the US Fed’s June 17-18 monetary policy meeting will be published on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. Policymakers decided to maintain the policy rate at the range of 4.25%-4.5%, but the revised Summary of Projections showed that policymakers were projecting two 25 bps rate cuts in 2025.

New US tariffs target Asia, but some countries stand to gain

New US tariffs target Asia, but some countries stand to gain

President Trump’s new tariffs are higher than expected for most Asian economies. Moreover, most countries will face additional tariff rates on transshipments. The new announcements are silent on Singapore, India and the Philippines, which might stand to benefit from tariff concessions if negotiations progress favourably.

Best Brokers for EUR/USD Trading

Best Brokers for EUR/USD Trading

SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures

Best Brokers of 2025