Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bulls can stay hopeful above $1,968, US NFP, Fed clues eyed – Confluence Detector

  • Gold Price remains around weekly top, grinds higher past key support confluence.
  • Cautious optimism ahead of the US NFP, absence of major data/events prod XAU/USD bulls of late.
  • Reconfiguration of Fed bets, optimism about US debt-ceiling deal keeps Gold buyers hopeful.
  • Downbeat US employment figures, no US default can keep XAU/USD bulls in the driver’s seat.

Gold Price (XAU/USD) remains on the bull’s radar as it prints the first weekly gain in four heading into the key US employment report for May amid cautious optimism in the market. That said, the bullion’s latest run-up could be linked to the broad reduction in the market’s hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve (Fed), as well as hopes of avoiding the ‘catastrophic’ US default. Adding strength to the Gold Price upside could be the latest run-up in the equities, backed by the technology shares and downbeat yields. It’s worth noting that the fresh optimism about China’s economic recovery adds strength to the XAU/USD upside as Beijing is one of the world’s biggest Gold consumers.

Moving on, today’s US employment report becomes more important and hence any surprise in the headline figures won’t be taken lightly. That said, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) to ease to 190K from 253K prior while the Unemployment Rate is also expected to increase to 3.5% from 3.4%. Apart from that, the US Senate’s passage of the debt-ceiling bill and the avoidance of the default woes, as well as the last round of the Fed talks ahead of the pre-Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) blackout period for policymakers, should also be eyed closely for clear directions. 

Also read: US May Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Analyzing Gold price's reaction to NFP surprises

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

As per our Technical Confluence Indicator, the Gold Price grinds higher past $1,968 key confluence level comprising the 50-HMA, Fibonacci 61.8% in one-week and 23.6% on one-month.

Not only that, but the XAU/USD also trades beyond the Fibonacci 38.2% in one-day and the middle band of the Bollinger on the hourly chart, around $1,972 hurdle, to keep the buyers hopeful.

Also acting as an immediate support, previous resistance, is the convergence of the Pivot Point one-week R1 and Fibonacci 23.6% on one-day.

With this, the Gold Price appears capable of approaching the $1,992 upside hurdle including the 50-DMA and 200-HMA on four-hour chart.

Ahead of that, the $1,989-90 area may prod the XAU/USD bulls as it comprises the Pivot Point one-day R1 and Fibonacci 23.6% on one-month.

In a case where the Gold buyers manage to keep the reins beyond $1,992, the $2,000 round figure may act as the last defense of the Gold bears.

Here is how it looks on the tool


About Technical Confluences Detector

The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.  If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content

Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD regains 1.0900 ahead of Powell speech

EUR/USD regains 1.0900 ahead of Powell speech

EUR/USD is recovering above 1.0900 in the European session on Monday. The pair finds demand, as the US Dollar rebound stalls. The focus remains on US politics and Fedspeak looking ahead.


GBP/USD holds below 1.3000, as focus shifts to Powell speech

GBP/USD holds below 1.3000, as focus shifts to Powell speech

GBP/USD pares losses but stays below 1.3000 in European trading on Monday. The US Dollar struggles after a positive start, as traders digest the assassination attempt on ex-US President Donald Trump. Powell's speech is next on tap for the pair. 


Gold price clings to gains near $2,400 on firm Fed rate-cut bets

Gold price clings to gains near $2,400 on firm Fed rate-cut bets

Gold price holds gains to near $2,400, driven by growing speculation for Fed rate cuts in September. Softer-than-expected US inflation for June indicated that price pressures are on course to return to 2%.

Gold News

Bitcoin price sets for a rally following a breakout above the descending trendline

Bitcoin price sets for a rally following a breakout above the descending trendline

On-chain data suggests that miners' selling activity is decreasing, indicating a bullish move ahead. US spot Bitcoin ETFs registered $1.047 billion in inflows last week. Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap is increasing, suggesting that whales are intensifying their accumulation.

Read more

Trump assassination attempt boosts his chances of winning November election

Trump assassination attempt boosts his chances of winning November election

Donald Trump got this close to being assassinated this weekend while he was giving a speech in an election rally. He was lucky that the bullet only grazed his ear, but he showed his resilience by demonstrating strength and defiance after being shot.

Read more