Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bulls are testing critical resistance, traders eye key events


Share:
  • Gold price is running into a critical resistance area on the charts.
  • A sell-off in Gold price and capitulation of the bulls could lead to a significant run towards $1,900. 

The Gold price is making progress on the day into the final push on Wall Street and rallied from a low of $1,917.22 to a high of $1,942 on the day so far.

Gold price rose to the highest in nine months as the US Dollar and bond yields came under pressure following the start of the week's 1% drop in leading economic indicators in December which solidified the dovish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve, Fed, that is now expected to announce another interest-rate hike when its policy committee meets next week.

The US Dollar was weakening, making the metal more affordable for international buyers while the Fed officials are out on the blackout week ahead of the highly anticipated Fed interest rate decision. the Gold price flourished with investors now awaiting US economic data due this week that could impact the Federal Reserve's policy path. 

Federal Reserve is eyed, sentiment mixed

Investors are banking on the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25 basis points (bps) at the January 31 - February 1 policy meeting, after slowing its pace to 50 bps in December, following four straight 75-bp hikes. Meanwhile, the Gold price tends to benefit due to lower interest rates that otherwise decrease the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. 

The most hawkish of comments came from St. Louis Federal Reserve's President James Bullard who said US interest rates have to rise further to ensure that inflationary pressures recede.

''We’re almost into a zone that we could call restrictive - we’re not quite there yet,” Bullard said Wednesday in an online Wall Street Journal interview. Officials want to ensure inflation will come down on a steady path to the 2% target. “We don’t want to waver on that,” he said.

“Policy has to stay on the tighter side during 2023” as the disinflationary process unfolds, Bullard added.

Bullard has pencilled in a forecast for a rate range of 5.25% to 5.5% by the end of this year.

However, economic reports, such as Producer Price Index and Retail Sales have recently shown disinflationary tendencies, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will continue to reduce its tightening pace in upcoming meetings.

With that being said, analysts at ANZ Bank recently wrote a note, entitled, ''Fed tightening not done yet.''

''So far in early 2023, US data releases have indicated a mild easing in inflationary pressures and softer demand. This indicates the Fed’s aggressive tightening last year is starting to take effect,'' the analysts explained. ''Weakness in housing is evident (existing home sales fell 17.8% last year), manufacturing activity has faltered and Retail Sales are returning to trend.''

Meanwhile, analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman have also of the opinion that the market is underestimating the potential for a higher for longer Federal Reserve. ''Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, PCE, has largely been in a 4.5-5.5% range since November 2021,'' they said. ''We think the Fed needs to see further improvement before even contemplating any sort of pivot.''

EUR/USD and Europen Central Bank sentiment in the mix

Meanwhile, the Euro has been a little cheerier of late, also pressuring the US dollar and helping to support risk appetite and a bid into the Gold price. European Central policymaker, Peter Kazimir, said on Monday that inflation easing was good news but added that it was not a reason to slow the pace of interest rate hikes, as reported by Reuters.

Governing Council member and Governor of Austria's central bank Olli Rehn made some comments on the European Central Banks' interest rates policy during their appearances over the weekend also as did  ECB governing council member Klaas Knot on Sunday, advocating steep rate hikes. "Expect us to raise rates by 0.5% in February and March and expect us to not be done by then and that more steps will follow in May and June," Knot said.

Analysts at TD Securities argued that the gold price could struggle to firm further in the absence of the single-largest buyer of gold over the past months. On the downside, a break below the $1,900/oz range is required to spark trend-follower liquidations.

Gold technical analysis

The Gold price is on track for a crash should the US dollar bust to life given the placement of the price in the market structure. The US Dollar has been testing the daily trendline resistance as follows:

If this were to break then the Gold price will likely be headed lower, but there is red news scheduled for Thursday so any moves prior to that might be limited and a distribution schematic and higher highs could be more likely in the lead up:

Bullish trendline for Gold price is vulnerable.

A break of Gold price structures is eyed for the days ahead so long as resistance holds. 

A sell-off and capitulation of the Gold price bulls could lead to a significant run towards $1,900. 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Follow us on Telegram

Stay updated of all the news

Join Telegram

Recommended content


Follow us on Telegram

Stay updated of all the news

Join Telegram

Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD stabilizes above1.0800, looks to post weekly gains

EUR/USD stabilizes above1.0800, looks to post weekly gains

EUR/USD continues to trade in a tight channel above 1.0800 in the second half of the day on Friday, as the improving risk mood makes if difficult for the USD to gather strength. The pair remains on track to snap a five-week losing streak.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD clings to modest daily gains above 1.2650

GBP/USD clings to modest daily gains above 1.2650

GBP/USD trades in positive territory above 1.2650 in the American session on Friday. The bullish opening in Wall Street doesn't allow the USD to gather strength and helps the pair stay on track to close higher for the fifth consecutive day.

GBP/USD News

Gold holds steady above $2,020 as US yields edge lower

Gold holds steady above $2,020 as US yields edge lower

Gold regained its traction and stabilized above $2,020 after falling below this level during the European trading hours. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield is down nearly 1% on the day below 4.3%, allowing XAU/USD to keep its footing heading into the weekend.

Gold News

Ethereum price risks decline as increasing exchange supply raises chances of profit taking

Ethereum price risks decline as increasing exchange supply raises chances of profit taking

Ethereum price crossed $3,000 several times this week but the altcoin failed to sustain above this key level, raising concerns regarding its price trend. ETH price faces the risk of decline as the supply of the altcoin on exchanges is on the rise. 

Read more

Up go stocks, down go bonds

Up go stocks, down go bonds

We knew that yesterday was going to be a good day – at least for the stock markets, given that Nvidia defied the expectations that it would - maybe – fail to deliver $20bn sales in the latest quarter. 

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures