Gold price remains on track for second straight week of gains, awaits US NFP


Most recent article: Gold continues positive run as investors foresee lower interest rates 

  • Gold price regains positive traction and climbs back closer to a two-week top. 
  • September Fed rate cut bets undermine the USD and lend support to the metal.
  • The risk-on mood might cap gains as traders gear up for the key US jobs report. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts fresh buyers following the previous day's range-bound price action and climbs to the $2,365 area, or its highest level since June 21 during the Asian session on Friday. The markets have been pricing in a greater chance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut in interest rates in September and again in December in the wake of the recent softer US macro data. This, in turn, drags the US Dollar (USD) lower for the fourth straight day, to over a three-week low and turns out to be a key factor lending support to the commodity. 

That said, the prevalent risk-on environment might keep a lid on any runaway rally for the safe-haven Gold price. Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive bets and prefer to wait for the release of the US monthly employment details. The popularly known Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will influence market expectations about the Fed's future policy decisions. This, in turn, will drive the near-term USD demand and provide a fresh directional impetus to the precious metal, which remains on track to register gains for the second successive week. 

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price is underpinned by Fed rate cut bets, sustained USD selling

  • Expectations for an imminent start of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle in September weigh on the US Dollar for the fourth straight day on Friday and continue to lend support to the non-yielding Gold price. 
  • The market bets were lifted by this week's softer US macroeconomic releases, which pointed to signs of weakness in the labor market and a loss of momentum in the economy at the end of the second quarter.
  • That said, hawkish signals from a slew of influential Fed officials, along with the minutes of the June FOMC policy meeting, suggest that policymakers were still not confident about bringing down lending costs.
  • Furthermore, the underlying bullish sentiment across the global equity markets holds back traders from placing fresh bullish bets around the safe-haven precious metal ahead of the closely-watched US employment data.
  • The popularly known Nonfarm Payrolls report is due for release later during the North American session and is expected to show that the US economy added 190K jobs in June as compared to the 272K previous.
  • Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is anticipated to hold steady at 4%, while Average Hourly Earnings growth could see a modest dip, rising by the 3.9% yearly rate as compared to the 4.1% increase recorded in May. 
  • The crucial data will play a key role in influencing market expectations about the Fed's future policy decisions, which, in turn, will drive the USD demand and provide a fresh directional impetus to the XAU/USD.

Technical Analysis: Gold price needs to find acceptance above $2,365 area before the next leg up

From a technical perspective, Wednesday's sustained breakout through the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) was seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. Adding to this, oscillators on the daily chart have again started gaining positive traction and suggest that the path of least resistance for the Gold price is to the upside. Some follow-through buying beyond the $2,365 area will reaffirm the constructive outlook and allow the XAU/USD to reclaim the $2,400 mark. The momentum could extend further towards challenging the all-time peak, around the $2,450 zone touched in May.

On the flip side, weakness back towards the 50-day SMA resistance breakpoint, around the $2,339-2,338 region, could be seen as a buying opportunity. This is followed by support near the $2,319-2,318 area, which if broken decisively could make the Gold price vulnerable to weaken further below the $2,300 mark and test the $2,285 horizontal zone. Failure to defend the said support levels might expose the 100-day SMA, currently near the $2,258 area, and the $2,225-2,220 support before the XAU/USD eventually drops to the $2,200 round-figure mark.

Economic Indicator

Nonfarm Payrolls

The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews ​and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.

Read more.

Next release: Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:30

Frequency: Monthly

Consensus: 190K

Previous: 272K

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish.

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

XM
Account
7.2
Tools
9.2
Service
9.4
Trading
9.0
Trust
7.0
Experience
8.4
Read review
Moneta Markets
Account
7.4
Tools
6.6
Service
8.0
Trading
6.6
Trust
5.2
Experience
9.2
Read review
Trading Pro
Account
7.2
Tools
5.2
Service
6.6
Trading
8.0
Trust
5.0
Experience
7.0
Read review
Pepperstone
Account
8.2
Tools
8.2
Service
7.4
Trading
9.0
Trust
8.8
Experience
9.0
Read review
XM
Read review
Moneta Markets
Read review
Trading Pro
Read review
Pepperstone
Read review
Trading Pro
Read review
Pepperstone
Read review
XM
Read review
Moneta Markets
Read review
Trading Pro
Account
7.2
Tools
5.2
Service
6.6
Trading
8.0
Trust
5.0
Experience
7.0
Read review
Pepperstone
Account
8.2
Tools
8.2
Service
7.4
Trading
9.0
Trust
8.8
Experience
9.0
Read review
XM
Account
7.2
Tools
9.2
Service
9.4
Trading
9.0
Trust
7.0
Experience
8.4
Read review
Moneta Markets
Account
7.4
Tools
6.6
Service
8.0
Trading
6.6
Trust
5.2
Experience
9.2
Read review

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD accelerates losses to 1.0930 on stronger Dollar

EUR/USD accelerates losses to 1.0930 on stronger Dollar

The US Dollar's recovery regains extra impulse sending the US Dollar Index to fresh highs and relegating EUR/USD to navigate the area of daily troughs around 1.0930 in the latter part of Friday's session.

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD plummets to four-week lows near 1.2850

GBP/USD plummets to four-week lows near 1.2850

The US Dollar's rebound keep gathering steam and now sends GBP/USD to the area of multi-week lows in the 1.2850 region amid the broad-based pullback in the risk-associated universe.

GBP/USD News
Gold trades on the back foot, flirts with $3,000

Gold trades on the back foot, flirts with $3,000

Gold prices are accelerating their daily decline, steadily approaching the critical $3,000 per troy ounce mark as the Greenback's rebound gains extra momentum and US yields tighten their retracement.

Gold News
Can Maker break $1,450 hurdle as whales launch buying spree?

Can Maker break $1,450 hurdle as whales launch buying spree?

Maker holds steadily above $1,250 support as a whale scoops $1.21 million worth of MKR. Addresses with a 100k to 1 million MKR balance now account for 24.27% of Maker’s total supply. Maker battles a bear flag pattern as bulls gather for an epic weekend move.

Read more
Strategic implications of “Liberation Day”

Strategic implications of “Liberation Day”

Liberation Day in the United States came with extremely protectionist and inward-looking tariff policy aimed at just about all U.S. trading partners. In this report, we outline some of the more strategic implications of Liberation Day and developments we will be paying close attention to going forward.

Read more
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD

The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD

SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures

Best Brokers of 2025