Forex Today: US Dollar retreats to start the week
Here is what you need to know on Monday, June 24:
The US Dollar (USD) struggles to find demand at the beginning of the new week after outperforming its rivals on Friday. IFO business sentiment data from Germany will be featured in the European economic docket on Monday. Later in the day, Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index will be featured in the US economic docket. Investors will also continue to assess comments from central bank officials.
US Dollar PRICE Last 7 days
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.02% | 0.28% | 1.47% | -0.41% | -0.49% | 0.26% | 0.29% | |
| EUR | 0.02% | 0.34% | 1.52% | -0.38% | -0.56% | 0.34% | 0.31% | |
| GBP | -0.28% | -0.34% | 1.27% | -0.72% | -0.89% | -0.03% | 0.04% | |
| JPY | -1.47% | -1.52% | -1.27% | -1.76% | -1.93% | -1.05% | -1.08% | |
| CAD | 0.41% | 0.38% | 0.72% | 1.76% | -0.13% | 0.69% | 0.77% | |
| AUD | 0.49% | 0.56% | 0.89% | 1.93% | 0.13% | 0.95% | 0.95% | |
| NZD | -0.26% | -0.34% | 0.03% | 1.05% | -0.69% | -0.95% | 0.07% | |
| CHF | -0.29% | -0.31% | -0.04% | 1.08% | -0.77% | -0.95% | -0.07% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Upbeat PMI data from the US on Friday helped the USD gather strength ahead of the weekend. The USD Index extended its weekly uptrend and reached its highest level since early May near 106.00. In the European session on Monday, the USD Index stays in a consolidation phase above 105.50. Meanwhile, US stock index futures trade mixed, while the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield fluctuates at around 4.25%.
The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) Summary of Opinions from its June monetary policy meeting showed that some policymakers voiced their preference for raising interest rates amid upside risks to inflation. USD/JPY closed the seventh consecutive day in positive territory on Friday and came in within a touching distance of 160.00, reaching the highest level since the BoJ intervened in foreign exchange markets late April. Early Monday, the pair corrects lower but holds above 159.50. Japan's top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, reiterated earlier in the day that they stand ready to intervene if necessary.
EUR/USD registered small losses on Friday but managed to recover back above 1.0700 in the European morning on Monday.
GBP/USD stretched lower on Friday and closed the third consecutive week in negative territory. The pair holds steady at around 1.2650 to start the new week.
After rising sharply on escalating geopolitical tensions on Thursday, Gold erased its weekly gains on Friday amid broad-based USD strength. XAU/USD holds its ground on Monday and trades above $2,320.
Central banks FAQs
Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%.
A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.
A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.
Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
