|

Forex Today: US Dollar consolidates weekly gains ahead of mid-tier data

Here is what you need to know on Friday, May 12:

Markets stay relatively quiet on Friday as investors assess the latest data releases while keeping an eye on headlines surrounding the banking crisis in the US. Later in the day, Import and Export Price Index data will be featured in the US economic docket. Ahead of the weekend, the University of Michigan (UoM) will release the Consumer Sentiment Survey for May.

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Preview: Modest improvement not enough to boost the mood

Escalating fears over a deepening banking crisis caused investors to seek refuge on Thursday and the US Dollar Index climbed to its highest level in 10 days above 102.00 before going into a consolidation phase near that level early Friday. PacWest said in a securities filing on Thursday that its deposits dropped nearly 10% and the bank's shares lost more than 20%. The financial heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average lost nearly 0.7% on a daily basis. In the European morning, US stock index futures trade modestly higher on the day.

The Bank of England (BoE) raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% as expected and repeated in its policy statement, "If there were to be evidence of more persistent pressures, then further tightening of monetary policy would be required." Although the BoE revised inflation projections higher, Governor Andrew Bailey said there were good reasons to think that the Consumer price Index will fall sharply from April.

GBP/USD came under heavy bearish pressure after the BoE event on Thursday and lost more than 100 pips on the day. Early Friday, the data from the UK revealed that the Gross Domestic Product contracted by 0.3% on a monthly basis in March. In the same period, Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production both expanded by 0.7%. GBP/USD, however, largely ignored these data and was last seen posting small recovery gains above 1.2500.

EUR/USD fell to its weakest level in a month at 1.0900 on Thursday. In the European morning, the pair stages a technical correction but continues to trade below 1.0950. European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos will be delivering a speech later in the day.

Although USD/JPY edged higher amid broad-based USD strength on Thursday, the risk-averse market atmosphere didn't allow the pair to gather bullish momentum. Early Friday, the pair trades modestly higher on the day above 134.50.

Gold price failed to benefit from retreating US Treasury bond yields on Thursday and closed in negative territory below $2,020. XAU/USD stays on the back foot in the European session and trades at around $2,010.

Following a two-day consolidation, Bitcoin came under renewed selling pressure on Thursday and continued to stretch lower early Friday. BTC/USD was last seen trading at its weakest level in nearly two months below $26,300. Ethereum lost mode than 2% on Thursday and closed below $1,800. Sellers retain control in the European session and ETH/USD trades in the red at around $1,750.

Author

Eren Sengezer

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

More from Eren Sengezer
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD bounces toward 1.1750 as US Dollar loses strength

EUR/USD returned to the 1.1750 price zone in the American session on Friday, despite falling Wall Street, which indicates risk aversion. Trading conditions remain thin following the New Year holiday and ahead of the weekend, with the focus shifting to US employment and European data scheduled for next week.

GBP/USD nears 1.3500, holds within familiar levels

After testing 1.3400 on the last day of 2025, GBP/USD managed to stage a rebound. Nevertheless, the pair finds it difficult to gather momentum and trades with modest intraday gains at around 1.3490 as market participants remain in holiday mood.

Gold trims intraday gains, approaches $4,300

Gold retreated sharply from the $4,400  area and trades flat for the day in the $4,320 price zone. Choppy trading conditions exacerbated the intraday decline, although XAU/USD bearish case is out of the picture, considering growing expectations for a dovish Fed and persistent geopolitical tensions.

Breaking: US Trump strikes Venezuela, claims President Maduro was captured and flown out of the country

United States (US) President Donald Trump has fulfilled his threats and finally struck Venezuela. Different media reports that explosions in Caracas began around 1:50 am local time on Saturday, leaving multiple areas of the city without power.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).