|

Forex Today: Unimpressive Fed, escalating geopolitical tensions

What you need to know on Thursday, February 17:

The American dollar edged lower on Wednesday, despite the release of upbeat US data and uncertainty related to Russian and Ukrainian border tensions. Also, the US Federal Reserve released the Minutes of the latest FOMC meeting, which indicated that policymakers are willing to hike rates but did not mention a 50 bps move in March.

US Retail Sales were up 3.8% in January, much better than anticipated, while Industrial Production in the same month surged by 1.4% vs the 0.4% expected.

Regarding geopolitical tensions, the latest on the matter was the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service chief reporting that Russia was moving some 10 battle groups towards the area near Ukraine, where more groups are already awaiting.

European indexes closed in the red with modest losses. Wall Street spent most of the day in the red but managed to recover post-FOMC Minutes now mixed around their opening levels.

Government bond yields remained up the upper end of their weekly range, with the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note hovering around 2.05%.

EUR/USD trades around 1.1390, while GBP/USD flirts with 1.3600 amid the broad dollar's weakness. The AUD/USD pair is also up, trading around 0.7200, while USD/CAD lags, hovering around 1.2670. Weaker oil prices limit the CAD as the black gold retreated sharply from its daily high and trades around $92.50 a barrel.

Iran's top nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani tweeted that, following weeks of intensive talks, the JCPOA participants, including the US and Iran are closer than ever to an agreement. However, he added that "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed."

Safe-haven currencies managed to advance against the greenback, with USD/CHF down to 0.9210.

Gold edged higher and trades at around $1870 a troy ounce.

Cardano Price Prediction: ADA readies for another run to $1.30


Like this article? Help us with some feedback by answering this survey:

Author

Valeria Bednarik

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

More from Valeria Bednarik
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD stuck as the RBA talks tough into a slowdown

The Australian Dollar is going nowhere in a hurry, and the contradiction at its core explains why. The Reserve Bank of Australia keeps dangling the prospect of another hike, yet the economy it governs just expanded 0.3% in the first quarter, a clear step down from the prior pace. A central bank threatening to tighten into a visible slowdown is not a recipe for conviction in either direction, and the tape shows it.

USD/JPY: Japanese Yen coiled at the line, leaning on everyone but Japan

The Yen is doing very little, and that stasis is the whole story. USD/JPY sits glued near 160.00 not because Japan has found new strength, but because two outside forces are fighting to a draw over it: a US rate complex that keeps the dollar bid, and a Ministry of Finance that refuses to let the line break.

Gold declines below $4,500 on stalled US-Iran ceasefire talks, US NFP data looms

Gold price edges lower to near $4,470 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal remains volatile amid ongoing geopolitical turmoil. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the US-Iran peace deal and the US May employment report later on Friday. 


Bitcoin falls below $64K as demand turns negative, short-term holders' selling intensifies

Bitcoin has fallen below $64,000 on Thursday amid weakening market demand and mounting selling pressure from short-term holders. The leading cryptocurrency slipped toward the $63,000 level amid a broader risk-off environment, with several key metrics signaling one of the most challenging periods of the current market cycle.

Nonfarm payrolls: Testing the limits of Fed policy patience

The upcoming nonfarm payrolls report for May will provide the final update on the US labor market before Kevin Warsh attends his first policy meeting as the new Fed Chair later this month.

Recession on paper: What really moves the Canadian Loonie now?

Statistics Canada handed the headline writers a gift and the analysts a headache. Real GDP shrank 0.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, and with the fourth quarter of 2025 revised down to a 1.0% contraction, that is two negative quarters in a row, the textbook definition of a technical recession and Canada's first since the pandemic.