|

Forex Today: Markets turn cautious ahead of key macroeconomic events

Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, July 20:

The dollar selloff seems to have taken a break on Wednesday with the US Dollar Index moving sideways above 106.50 after having erased more than 1% so far this week. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield fluctuates above 3% and US stock index futures trade flat following the impressive risk rally witnessed earlier in the week. Inflation data from Canada and June Existing Home Sales from the US will be featured in the US economic docket. During the American trading hours, the European Commission will release the preliminary Consumer Confidence Index data for July. Finally, investors will pay close attention to the 20-yeas US Treasury note auction, which is scheduled to take place at 1700 GMT.

China reported more than 1000 coronavirus cases for the first time since May 20 and investors grow increasingly concerned over Chinese officials introducing additional restriction measures. Meanwhile, markets continue to scale down 100 basis points (bps) Fed rate hike bets for July.

Earlier in the day, the data published by the UK's Office for National Statistics revealed that inflation in the UK, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, jumped to 9.4% on a yearly basis in June from 9.1% in May. Although this print came in higher than the market expectation of 9.3%, the British pound struggled to gather strength. Following Tuesday's upbeat labor market data and Bank of England (BOE) Governor Bailey's hawkish comments, investors seem to have already fully priced in a 50 bps BOE rate hike in August. As of writing, GBP/USD was posting modest daily gains above 1.2000.

EUR/USD closed the third straight reading day in the positive territory on Tuesday on reports suggesting that the European Central Bank could opt for a 50 basis points rate hike at the upcoming meeting on Thursday. The pair continues to trade in positive territory at around mid-1.0200s in the European morning. In the meantime, Nord Stream 1 pipeline will reportedly come back online after the completion of the annual maintenance on Thursday but the gas will be supplied at a reduced rate. 

ECB Preview: Three critical factors to watch, and why EUR/USD is set to plunge.

AUD/USD climbed to its highest level in three weeks above 0.6900 on Tuesday and seems to have gone into a consolidation phase early Wednesday. Reserve Bank of Australia's governor, Phillip Lowe, reiterated during the Asian session that further rate increases will be required over the months ahead.

Ahead of the Bank of Japan's policy announcements, USD/JPY continues to move sideways in a narrow band near 138.00. 

Gold extends its sideways grind above $1,700 for the fourth straight trading day and struggles to make a decisive move in either direction. Rising US T-bond yields don't allow XAU/USD to benefit from the broad-based selling pressure surrounding the dollar.

Bitcoin trades at its highest level in more than a month above $23,000 and Ethereum stays quiet near $1,500 after having registered small daily losses on Tuesday.

Author

Eren Sengezer

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

More from Eren Sengezer
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD drops to daily lows near 1.1630

EUR/USD now loses some traction and slips back to the area of daily lows around 1.1630 on the back of a mild bounce in the US Dollar. Fresh US data, including the September PCE inflation numbers and the latest read on December consumer sentiment, didn’t really move the needle, so the pair is still on course to finish the week with a respectable gain.

GBP/USD trims gains, recedes toward 1.3320

GBP/USD is struggling to keep its daily advance, coming under fresh pressure and retreating to the 1.3320 zone following a mild bullish attempt in the Greenback. Even though US consumer sentiment surprised to the upside, the US Dollar isn’t getting much love, as traders are far more interested in what the Fed will say next week.

Gold makes a U-turn, back to $4,200

Gold is now losing the grip and receding to the key $4,200 region per troy ounce following some signs of life in the Greenback and a marked bounce in US Treasury yields across the board. The positive outlook for the precious metal, however, remains underpinned by steady bets for extra easing by the Fed.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP pare gains despite increasing hopes of upcoming Fed rate cut

Bitcoin is steadying above $91,000 at the time of writing on Friday. Ethereum remains above $3,100, reflecting positive sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy meeting on December 10.

Week ahead – Rate cut or market shock? The Fed decides

Fed rate cut widely expected; dot plot and overall meeting rhetoric also matter. Risk appetite is supported by Fed rate cut expectations; cryptos show signs of life. RBA, BoC and SNB also meet; chances of surprises are relatively low.

Ripple faces persistent bear risks, shrugging off ETF inflows

Ripple is extending its decline for the second consecutive day, trading at $2.06 at the time of writing on Friday. Sentiment surrounding the cross-border remittance token continues to lag despite steady inflows into XRP spot ETFs.