|

Forex Today: Markets remain mixed ahead of FOMC Minutes

Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, February 22:

Choppy market action continues mid-week as investors await the next significant catalyst. IFO sentiment survey from Germany will be featured in the European docket on Wednesday. In the late American session, the US Federal Reserve will publish the minutes of its first policy meeting of the year. Market participants will also keep a close eye on comments from central bank officials.

Safe-haven flows dominated financial markets amid escalating geopolitical tensions on Tuesday and Wall Street's main indexes suffered heavy losses. In turn, the US Dollar managed to hold its ground against its major rivals and the US Dollar Index snapped a two-day losing streak to close above 104.00. Meanwhile, the data from the US revealed that S&P Global Services PMI recovered sharply to 50.5 in early February from 46.8 in January. Supported by the upbeat data, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield extended its rally and touched its highest level since early November at 3.96% on Tuesday before retreating toward 3.9% early Wednesday.

FOMC Minutes Preview: Did policymakers discuss returning to bigger rate hikes?

During the Asian trading hours, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced that it raised its policy rate by 50 basis points to 4.75% as expected. In its policy statement, the RBNZ noted that 50 and 75 bps hikes were discussed during the meeting but unveiled that the terminal rate projection for June 2023 got revised lower to 5.14% from 5.41%. Commenting on the outlook, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said that they were still predicting a recession over a 9-12 month period. Following Tuesday's sharp decline, NZD/USD gained traction following the RBNZ event and was last seen trading modestly higher on the day at 0.6230.

The data from Australia revealed on Wednesday that Wage Price Index edged higher to 3.3% on a yearly basis in the fourth quarter from 3.1%. With this print falling short of the market expectation of 3.5%, AUD/USD turned south in the Asian session. At the time of press, the pair was trading in negative territory below 0.6850.

USD/JPY closed the third straight trading day in positive territory on Tuesday before going into a consolidation phase below 135.00. Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Naoki Tamura reiterated that it would be appropriate to maintain monetary easing but added that a policy review will be required at some point in the future.

GBP/USD registered impressive gains on the back of upbeat UK PMI surveys on Wednesday. The pair stays relatively quiet on Wednesday but continues to trade above 1.2100. 

EUR/USD edge lower and closed in negative territory at around 1.0650 on Tuesday. The pair is having a difficult time regaining its traction in the European morning.

Gold price stayed under modest bearish pressure on Tuesday amid rising US Treasury bond yields and closed below $1,840. XAU/USD moves up and down in a very narrow channel early Wednesday.

Bitcoin staged a downward correction on Tuesday and extended its slide toward $24,000 early Wednesday. Ethereum lost more than 2% on Tuesday and returned below $1,700. As of writing, ETH/USD was already down 1% on the day at $1,640.

Author

Eren Sengezer

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

More from Eren Sengezer
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD sits at two-month lows near 0.6950 after Australian CPI data

AUD/USD is sitting at two-month lows near 0.6950 in the Asian session on Wednesday, as below-expectations August Australian underlying CPI data pours cold water on expectations for further RBA interest rate hikes. Chinese PMI data also fail to inspire the Australian Dollar, despite a pause in the US Dollar advance.

USD/JPY stays weak below 157.00 amid Japanese intervention risks

USD/JPY keeps losses below 157.00 in the Asian session on Wednesday, as hawkish BoJ expectations, along with intervention risks, underpin the Japanese Yen, countering dismal domestic factory output and retail sales data. Meanwhile, a broad US Dollar retreat also collaborates to the pair's downside.

Gold flat lines below $4,200, as focus shifts to US ADP and PCE

Gold extends its consolidative price move in the European session, trading near the $4,200 mark. Falling US bond yields drag the US Dollar away from the two-month high, touched on Tuesday, and act as a tailwind for the commodity. However, hawkish US Federal Reserve expectations cap the upside as traders await important US macro data before placing fresh directional bets on the non-yielding bullion.

Bitcoin consolidates below $85,000 amid rising US Treasury yields, derivatives deleveraging

Bitcoin consolidates near $83,000 at the time of writing on Wednesday after bulls failed to close above the key $85,000 level earlier this week. The Crypto King's investors remain cautious amid rising US Treasury yields and several key macroeconomic data releases due this week.

US core PCE inflation set to rise in August, pressuring the Federal Reserve

The United States Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index data for August on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. Market participants closely watch the PCE Price Index because it is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation and could influence its policy outlook.

Silver is more volatile than Gold ahead of PCE and NFP. This chart shows the positioning gap
The market’s attention is focused on American data this week, but there’s something only those with a trained eye may be looking at: Gold and Silver positioning gap. Financial markets are moving on fears, mostly related to persistently high energy prices driven by the Middle East war. Sure, the US Dollar (USD) is strong, but at what cost?