|

Forex Today: It's all about Fed policy decisions and Powell's presser

Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, February 1:

February starts with a bang as investors eye key macroeconomic data releases and the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy announcements. Eurostat will publish January inflation figures ahead of the European Central Bank's policy meeting on Thursday. The US economic docket will feature the ADP's private sector employment report and the ISM's Manufacturing PMI survey for January. After the Fed releases the policy statement alongside the interest rate decision at 1900 GMT, FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver his comments on the policy outlook and respond to questions from the press from 1930 GMT.

 Federal Reserve Preview: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly, why the US Dollar would rise.

The US Dollar Index stays quiet near 102.00 early Wednesday after having snapped a three-day winning streak on Tuesday. The positive shift witnessed in risk sentiment following the Employment Cost Index data, which rose at a softer pace than expected in the fourth quarter, made it difficult for the US Dollar to outperform its rivals in the American session. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield retreated to 3.5% and Wall Street's main indexes registered strong daily gains. With investors moving to the sidelines ahead of high-tier events, US stock index futures trade modestly lower on the day. 

During the Asian trading hours, the data from New Zealand revealed that the Unemployment Rate edged higher to 3.4% in the fourth quarter from 3.3% in the third quarter. In the same period, Employment Change came in at +0.2%, falling short of the market expectation for an increase of 0.3%. NZD/USD came under bearish pressure and declined toward 0.6400 before recovering to 0.6450 in the early European morning. In the meantime, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI in China improved modestly to 49.2 in January from 49 but failed to trigger a significant market reaction.

EUR/USD registered small daily gains on Tuesday but lost its recovery momentum before reaching 1.0900. Inflation in the Euro area, as measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, is forecast to edge lower to 9% on a yearly basis in January from 9.2% in December.

GBP/USD closed the third straight trading day in negative territory on Tuesday before going into a consolidation phase slightly above 1.2300 early Wednesday. 

USD/JPY failed to make a decisive move in either direction on Tuesday and closed the day virtually unchanged. The pair extends its sideways grind above 130.00 mid-week. Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI in Japan came in at 48.9 in January as expected.

Gold price staged an impressive rebound after having declined toward $1,900 on Tuesday. XAU/USD is having a difficult time gathering further bullish momentum but holding its ground at around $1,930.

Following Monday's sharp decline, Bitcoin recovered marginally on Tuesday. Early Wednesday, BTC/USD is fluctuating in a narrow range at around $23,000. Ethereum shook off the bearish pressure after having declined toward $1,500 earlier in the week and rose more than 1% on Tuesday. At the time of press, ETH/USD was trading marginally lower on the day at $1,575.

Author

Eren Sengezer

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

More from Eren Sengezer
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD posts modest gains above 1.1700 as ECB signals pause

The EUR/USD pair posts modest gains around 1.1710 during the early Asian session on Monday. The Euro strengthens against the Greenback after the European Central Bank left its policy rates unchanged and took a more positive view on the Eurozone economy, which has shown resilience to global trade shocks. Financial markets are likely to remain subdued as traders book profits ahead of the long holiday period.

GBP/USD steadies below 1.3400 as traders assess BoE policy outlook

Following Thursday's volatile session, GBP/USD moves sideways below 1.3400 on Friday. Investors reassess the Bank of England's policy oıtlook after the MPC decided to cut the interest rate by 25 bps by a slim margin. Meanwhile, the improving risk mood helps the pair hold its ground.

Gold advances above $4,350 amid renewed geopolitical tensions

Gold is rising back above $4,350 early Monday, helped by renewed geopolitical tensions. Israel-Iran conflict and US-Venezuela headlines drive investors toward the traditional store of value, Gold. 

Week ahead: Key risks to watch in last days of 2025 and early 2026

The festive period officially starts next week, with many traders vacating their desks until the first full week of January, making way for thin trading volumes and very few top-tier releases.

How much can one month of soft inflation change the Fed’s mind?

One month of softer inflation data is rarely enough to shift Federal Reserve policy on its own, but in a market highly sensitive to every data point, even a single reading can reshape expectations. November’s inflation report offered a welcome sign of cooling price pressures. 

XRP rebounds amid ETF inflows and declining retail demand demand

XRP rebounds as bulls target a short-term breakout above $2.00 on Friday. XRP ETFs record the highest inflow since December 8, signaling growing institutional appetite.