Forex Today: Aussie sold-off into weak Aus data, risk-off, UK jobs in focus

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Risk-off sentiment extended into Asia and emerged the key theme across the fx board, boosting the demand for the safe-havens Yen, CHF, and gold at the expense of the risk assets such as the equities, oil, GBP, and Antipodeans. The risk-averse market condition is mainly driven by oil-price sell-off after the IEA slashed the global demand growth forecasts for 2017, 2018 a day before.

Amongst the fx space, the Aussie was the biggest loser, despite persisting broad-based US dollar weakness, as downbeat Aus wages data and risk-aversion weighed heavily. Meanwhile, the Yen was the top gainer on the back of the Japanese growth story and safe-haven flows, as the Nikkei 225 index slumps -1.30%.

Main topics in Asia

Japan's GDP grows for seventh straight quarter as exports outperform

The Japanese economy is witnessing the longest period of uninterrupted growth in more than a decade on the back of strong export growth.

Australia Wage Price Index (QoQ) below expectations (0.7%) in 3Q: Actual (0.5%)

Oil leads the risk-off, IEA trimmed demand forecast

Oil is leading the risk-off action; currently down 1 percent on fears that rising US output and weak demand growth would keep the market oversupplied in 2018.

China Xi's special envoy to visit N. Korea from Nov 17th - Xinhua

China’s official news agency, Xinhua, reported earlier today that the Chinese President Xi Jinping's special envoy will visit North Korea from November 17.

Key Focus ahead

Heading into Europe, markets look forward to the RBA Assistant Governor Ellis speech, followed by the FOMC member Evans’ speech. On the data front, the UK jobs report is likely to be the main risk event in Europe today. Also, on the cards will be the second-liner Eurozone trade balance data, which is expected to have virtually no impact on the markets.

Moving on, the BOE MPC member Broadbent is due to speak about Brexit and interest rates at the London School of Economics ahead of the US open, while the key US CPI and retail sales data will be reported soon after. The US traders will also await the regional manufacturing index and business inventories data for some impetus. Meanwhile, the US EIA crude stockpiles report will wrap a busy Wednesday.

GBP/USD in a holding pattern ahead of UK labor data, yield spread topped out?

Cable's drop below 1.31 levels yesterday was short-lived, courtesy of the broad-based USD weakness, still, the area around 1.3180 proved a tough nut to crack.

EUR/USD in a phase of consolidation near 1.1800 ahead US CPI

The EUR/USD pair extends its overnight consolidative mode near three-week tops into Asia, as the bulls await the key US macro releases for the next push higher.

US CPI / retail sales preview - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura explained their outlook for the key US events ahead today in CPI and retails sales.

GMT	Event	Consensus	Previous
Wednesday, Nov 15
08:00	USD Fed's Evans Speech
09:30	GBP Average Earnings including Bonus (3Mo/Yr)	2.1%	2.2%
09:30	GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M)	4.3%	4.3%
09:30	GBP Average Earnings excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr)	2.2%	2.1%
09:30	GBP Claimant Count Rate		2.3%
09:30	GBP Claimant Count Change	2.3K	1.7K
10:00	GBP MPC Member Haldane Speech
10:00	EUR Trade Balance n.s.a.		€16.1B
10:00	EUR Trade Balance s.a.	€21.4B	€21.6B
10:00	EUR ECB's Praet Speech
12:00	USD MBA Mortgage Applications		0%
13:00	GBP MPC Member Broadbent Speech
13:30	USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	26.0	30.2
13:30	USD Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)	0.2%	1.0%
13:30	USD Retail Sales control group	0.4%	0.4%
13:30	USD Retail Sales (MoM)	0.0%	1.6%
13:30	USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM)	0.2%	0.1%
13:30	USD Consumer Price Index (YoY)	2.0%	2.2%
13:30	USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY)	1.7%	1.7%
13:30	USD Consumer Price Index Core s.a		252.86
13:30	USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM)	246.658	246.819
13:30	USD Consumer Price Index (MoM)	0.1%	0.5%
15:00	USD Business Inventories	0.0%	0.7%
15:30	USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks change	-2.850M	2.237M
21:00	USD Net Long-Term TIC Flows	$34.6B	$67.2B

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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