Forex Today: Aussie sold-off into weak Aus data, risk-off, UK jobs in focus

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Risk-off sentiment extended into Asia and emerged the key theme across the fx board, boosting the demand for the safe-havens Yen, CHF, and gold at the expense of the risk assets such as the equities, oil, GBP, and Antipodeans. The risk-averse market condition is mainly driven by oil-price sell-off after the IEA slashed the global demand growth forecasts for 2017, 2018 a day before.

Amongst the fx space, the Aussie was the biggest loser, despite persisting broad-based US dollar weakness, as downbeat Aus wages data and risk-aversion weighed heavily. Meanwhile, the Yen was the top gainer on the back of the Japanese growth story and safe-haven flows, as the Nikkei 225 index slumps -1.30%.

Main topics in Asia

Japan's GDP grows for seventh straight quarter as exports outperform

The Japanese economy is witnessing the longest period of uninterrupted growth in more than a decade on the back of strong export growth.

Australia Wage Price Index (QoQ) below expectations (0.7%) in 3Q: Actual (0.5%)

Oil leads the risk-off, IEA trimmed demand forecast

Oil is leading the risk-off action; currently down 1 percent on fears that rising US output and weak demand growth would keep the market oversupplied in 2018.

China Xi's special envoy to visit N. Korea from Nov 17th - Xinhua

China’s official news agency, Xinhua, reported earlier today that the Chinese President Xi Jinping's special envoy will visit North Korea from November 17.

Key Focus ahead

Heading into Europe, markets look forward to the RBA Assistant Governor Ellis speech, followed by the FOMC member Evans’ speech. On the data front, the UK jobs report is likely to be the main risk event in Europe today. Also, on the cards will be the second-liner Eurozone trade balance data, which is expected to have virtually no impact on the markets.

Moving on, the BOE MPC member Broadbent is due to speak about Brexit and interest rates at the London School of Economics ahead of the US open, while the key US CPI and retail sales data will be reported soon after. The US traders will also await the regional manufacturing index and business inventories data for some impetus. Meanwhile, the US EIA crude stockpiles report will wrap a busy Wednesday.

GBP/USD in a holding pattern ahead of UK labor data, yield spread topped out?

Cable's drop below 1.31 levels yesterday was short-lived, courtesy of the broad-based USD weakness, still, the area around 1.3180 proved a tough nut to crack.

EUR/USD in a phase of consolidation near 1.1800 ahead US CPI

The EUR/USD pair extends its overnight consolidative mode near three-week tops into Asia, as the bulls await the key US macro releases for the next push higher.

US CPI / retail sales preview - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura explained their outlook for the key US events ahead today in CPI and retails sales.

GMT	Event	Consensus	Previous
Wednesday, Nov 15
08:00	USD Fed's Evans Speech
09:30	GBP Average Earnings including Bonus (3Mo/Yr)	2.1%	2.2%
09:30	GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M)	4.3%	4.3%
09:30	GBP Average Earnings excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr)	2.2%	2.1%
09:30	GBP Claimant Count Rate		2.3%
09:30	GBP Claimant Count Change	2.3K	1.7K
10:00	GBP MPC Member Haldane Speech
10:00	EUR Trade Balance n.s.a.		€16.1B
10:00	EUR Trade Balance s.a.	€21.4B	€21.6B
10:00	EUR ECB's Praet Speech
12:00	USD MBA Mortgage Applications		0%
13:00	GBP MPC Member Broadbent Speech
13:30	USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	26.0	30.2
13:30	USD Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)	0.2%	1.0%
13:30	USD Retail Sales control group	0.4%	0.4%
13:30	USD Retail Sales (MoM)	0.0%	1.6%
13:30	USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM)	0.2%	0.1%
13:30	USD Consumer Price Index (YoY)	2.0%	2.2%
13:30	USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY)	1.7%	1.7%
13:30	USD Consumer Price Index Core s.a		252.86
13:30	USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM)	246.658	246.819
13:30	USD Consumer Price Index (MoM)	0.1%	0.5%
15:00	USD Business Inventories	0.0%	0.7%
15:30	USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks change	-2.850M	2.237M
21:00	USD Net Long-Term TIC Flows	$34.6B	$67.2B

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

AUD/USD stays weak above 0.6900 after China’s trade data

AUD/USD struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s recovery and stays defensive on the 0.6900 level following the narrowing of trade surplus in China. Increased December Fed rate hike bets allows the US Dollar to pause its decline and weigh on the pair. US CPI data is next of note for the major.

USD/JPY retakes 158.00 on weak Japanese data; focus shifts to US CPI

USD/JPY attracts some dip-buyers and retakes 158.00 in the Asian session on Tuesday as a fall in Japan’s Household Spending offsets hawkish BoJ Summary of Opinions, undermining the Japanese Yen. Moreover, Fed hike bets support the safe-haven US Dollar and the currency pair. The market focus now shifts to the release of the crucial US CPI report.

Gold: $4,150 remains a tough nut to crack as US CPI report looms

Gold pauses recovery near $4,150 as sellers jump in amid pre-US CPI profit-taking. US Dollar licks wounds amid US-Iran optimism and falling Oil prices-led easing inflation concerns. Gold reclaimed key 21-day SMA support on the daily chart as RSI flipped bullish.

NYSE taps Avalanche for clearing and settlement of tokenized securities

Avalanche defied the crypto market drawdown on Monday, up 4% after announcing it will provide the core ledger technology for clearing in the New York Stock Exchange's upcoming tokenized securities trading platform.

This weeks’ two big inflation reports will offer perspective

Payrolls on Friday surprised with a big gain, 165,000 new jobs rather than the 65,000 forecast. Also the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1% although average hourly earnings are up only 0.4% ($32.75). This weeks’ two big inflation reports will offer perspective. Tomorrow it’s CPI and on Friday, which is a Friday the 13th, it’s PPI.

Gold reclaimed $4,100. Tuesday’s CPI test decides if it holds

Gold (XAU/USD) starts the week on a positive note, reclaiming the $4,100 psychological level as the US Dollar (USD) retreats from its recent highs. The precious metal recovers from Friday's losses, although investors remain cautious ahead of Tuesday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which could determine the next direction for Bullion.