Forex Today: Aussie benefits from AU jobs report, trade/Brexit uncertainties prevail


Forex Today remains a little quiet with the same old stories surrounding trade and Brexit that negatively affect market’s risk-tone. However, the Australian Dollar (AUD) takes the bids based on upbeat AU unemployment rate. The US Treasury Secretary earlier pressed the risk-off while showing a lack response from China while the dragon nation’s retaliation over the US State Department’s notice raised bars for any successful trade deal between the two global powers. Further, Hong Kong issue is still on the table with the pro-democracy lawmakers calling the leader Carrier Lam to step down during the legislative session. On the Brexit front, no major solution is yet out despite the European Union (EU), French and German leaders’ optimism surrounding the deal.

The AUD/USD is undoubtedly the winner of the session (till now) while USD/CHF stands on the other extreme. Gold and Japanese Yen (JPY) benefits from the safe-haven demand whereas WTI Crude Oil stays mostly unchanged around $53.00 amid geopolitical tension and higher than previous stockpile data from the American Petroleum Institute (API). Moving on, NZD/USD had no major catalysts then to cheer the upbeat data at largest customer Australia while USD/CAD kept the volume low amid US-China worries.

Main Topics in Asia

BOJ effect: Japan's corporate debt yield hits record low of 0.0000000091% - Bloomberg

Australian bond yields rise on upbeat Aussie labor data

Australian Unemployment rate 0.1% lower and AUD rallies some 30 pips

UK's Labor Party to support second referendum on possible new Brexit deal

BoE Carney: Negative rates have not hurt profits in Europe

RBA Assistant Governor: Rate cuts have taken account of the expected evolution of the housing cycle

US Treasury Sec. Mnuchin: As of now there is no invitation from China for more trade talks in Beijing

Outlook does not look pretty for UK PM Boris Johnson in vote on Brexit deal - Sky News

ECB’s Villeroy: The causes of the slowdown in the euro-area are mainly external

Key Focus Ahead

While the two-day-old EU Summit is in the spotlight, for now, Swiss Trade Balance, UK Retail Sales, and the US housing/manufacturing data can offer intermediate moves to the market. It should also be noted that comments from the Federal Reserve policymakers and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor, up for publishing during the later part of the day, will also be the key to follow. Furthermore, trade headlines now bear the burden of political tussle and will have larger impact in a case of positive surprises.

EUR/USD: Upside remains capped below 1.1085/90 with eyes on EU summit

EUR/USD stays inside the rising channel but fails to overcome 1.1085/90 multiple resistance area. ECB policymakers differ from favoring further monetary easing. A lack of major data keeps highlighting Brexit drama for fresh impulse.

GBP/USD consolidates below 5-month tops, focus remains on key EU summit

The incoming positive Brexit headlines helped reverse an early dip on Wednesday. Fed rate cut expectations continued weighing on the USD and remained supportive. Thursday’s key focus will be on the highly-anticipated European Council summit.

USD/JPY awaits fresh catalysts, likely stemming from Brexit developments

USD/JPY holding in a narrow range of between a low of 108.64 and 108.76 so far. Ears to the ground for Brexit headlines, stealing the show.

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