Amid a whole lot of speculations concerning the Brexit, the Sky News reporter Sam Coates came out with his own analysis that rejects the likelihood of the United Kingdom’s (UK) Parliament support to the Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal, if any reach the doors.
The news report anticipates that the deal will fall short of getting 320 required votes in the House of Commons considering the uncertainty of support surrounding the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and some backbenchers. It also mentions few anonymous Tory sources suggesting to vote against the deal.
Key quotes
“The prime minister needs 320 MPs to vote for his plan on Saturday in order to be sure of a majority.”
“All current Conservative MPs can realistically be expected to vote for it, with a small chance of a rebellion just one or two Brexiteer "spartans".”
“So being charitable to Number 10, that's 287 votes in favour - although Brexiteers who will largely take their cue from the Northern Ireland unionists may drag this down slightly.”
“There is only a deal if the DUP give its approval so if the vote is going ahead, their 10 MPs will be giving their support as well, taking the numbers voting for the government - on an optimistic tally - to 297.”
“So where are the other 23 votes coming from?”
“There are two pools that Number 10 can fish in.”
“One is Labour MPs in Leave-leaning seats, and the other is the 21 former Tory MPs who lost the whip last month after a no-deal rebellion.”
“Neither will provide a straightforward win, despite attempts by Number 10 in recent days.”
“Number 10 will be particularly worried about their lack of apparent process among the former Tories.”
“Guto Bebb, one of the former Tories, told Sky News tonight that he would not vote for the prime minister's deal, and that he believed that would be true for "six to eight" MPs in his group.”
“This still leaves 12 to 14 more MPs willing to vote for Mr Johnson, although this could be even smaller.”
“Another member of the group suggested a much worse prognosis for Mr Johnson - that a dozen might vote against Mr Johnson's deal, leaving only eight or nine votes in favour.”
FX implications
While the GBP/USD pair stays mostly positive backed by the latest upbeat signal from the French President Emmanuel Macron, the news highlights the risk of the Cable’s correction should prove right.
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