Forex Today: A dull start to a Big week ahead

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Forex today kicked-off the week on a subdued note in Asia, as most majors stuck in tight trading ranges, digesting the US political drama and North Korea warnings over the US military drills with South Korea. Meanwhile, a lack of fresh economic fundamentals also left the markets side-lined. Investors also remained on the edge amid persisting moderate risk-aversion, fuelled by negative Asian equities and lower oil prices. Also, cautious trading prevailed, as attention turned towards the Jack Hole Symposium starting this Thursday.

Main topics in Asia

"Hard Brexit" would deliver GBP 135bln annual boost to UK economy

BBC carried a report from pro-Brexit Economists for Free Trade on Sunday, citing that removal all trade tariffs and barriers would help generate an annual GBP 135bn uplift to the UK economy.

Nikkei hits fresh 3-1/2 month low

Japan’s benchmark index Nikkei fell to 19,383.7 this Monday morning in Asia; its lowest level since May 2 on caution ahead of war drills in the Korean Peninsula.

China’s iron-ore rallies 6%, strongest since March 2017

Having booked nearly 7% gains on Friday, iron-ore futures on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) rallied another 6% so far this Monday, hitting the highest levels since March 2017.

North Korea calls US-South Korea war drills provocative, warns of nuclear war

North Korea has warned the US that its 10-day joint military exercise without Korea will be like “pouring gasoline on the fire”. It says, “the exercises will worsen the state of the peninsula”.

Key Focus ahead

Ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium, the first half of this week remains fairly light in terms of the economic data releases from Euroland, with the German ZEW surveys and Eurozone flash manufacturing and services PMI reports due on the cards, while the UK Q2 GDP estimate and German IFO business climate will be reported in an eventful second half of the week.

In the meantime, markets look forward to the German Buba monthly report and Canadian wholesale sales data due later today for some trading impetus.

GBP/USD remains capped below 1.2900 ahead of a Big week

The GBP/USD pair managed to move further away from five-week lows reached at 1.2829 last Friday, although remains capped below 1.29 handle amid moderate risk-aversion.

The week ahead - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura offered a preview of the week ahead.

Event risks ahead for today - Westpac

Analysts at Westpac offered the key event risks ahead for today in Asia, Europe, and Tthe US.

UK: Eyes on Q2 GDP second estimate - Danske Bank

“In the UK, the calendar (next week) is thin in terms of data releases of interest”, said analysts at Danske Bank. The key report will be the second estimate of Q2 GDP.

GMT	Event	Actual	Consensus	Previous
Sunday, Aug 20
24h	HUF Saint Stephen's Day
21:00	KRW Producer Price Index Growth (YoY)	3.0%		2.8%
21:00	KRW Producer Price Index Growth	0.1%		-0.4%
22:45	NZD Visitor Arrivals (YoY)	3.8%		17.3%
23:01	GBP Rightmove House Price Index (YoY)	3.1%		2.8%
23:01	GBP Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)	-0.9%		0.1%
Monday, Aug 21
24h	ARS Day of general José de San Martín
04:30	JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM)			-0.9%
08:00	EUR Current Account (YoY)			€-0.582B
08:30	GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing			£6.278B
10:00	EUR German Buba Monthly Report
n/a	EUR Current Account Balance			€-1.056B
11:30	INR M3 Money Supply			7.1%
12:30	USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index			0.13
12:30	CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM)			0.9%
13:00	EUR Consumer Confidence Index			2
15:30	USD 3-Month Bill Auction			1.015%
15:30	USD 6-Month Bill Auction			1.115%
Tuesday, Aug 22
04:00	IDR Bank Indonesia Rate			5.5%
04:30	EUR Consumer Spending Volume			2.2%
n/a	EUR Unemployment Rate			8.7%
06:00	CHF Trade Balance			2,813M
06:00	CHF Exports (MoM)			18,738M
06:00	CHF Imports (MoM)			15,926M
n/a	DKK Retail Sales (YoY)			0.5%
07:00	HUF Gross Wages (YoY)			12.9%
n/a	HKD Consumer Price Index			1.9%
09:00	EUR ZEW Survey - Current Situation		85.5	86.4
09:00	EUR ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment		16.5	17.5
09:00	EUR ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment			35.6
n/a	EUR 9-Month Letras Auction			-0.391%
n/a	EUR 3-Month Letras Auction			-0.488%
10:00	GBP CBI Industrial Trends Survey - Orders (MoM)			10
n/a	HUF MNB Interest Rate Decision			0.9%
12:30	CAD Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)			-0.1%
12:30	CAD Retail Sales (MoM)			0.6%
12:55	USD Redbook index (YoY)			2.5%
12:55	USD Redbook index (MoM)			-0.4%
13:00	USD Housing Price Index (MoM)			0.4%
14:00	USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index			14
15:30	USD 4-Week Bill Auction			0.94%
20:30	USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			-9.2M
Wednesday, Aug 23
00:30	JPY Nikkei Manufacturing PMI			52.1
05:00	SGD Consumer Price Index (YoY)			0.5
n/a	NOK Labour Force Survey			4.3%
n/a	TRY Consumer Confidence			71.3
n/a	DKK Consumer Confidence			10.5
07:00	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		54.5	54.9
07:00	EUR Markit Services PMI		55.7	56.0
07:00	EUR Markit PMI Composite		55.5	55.6
07:30	EUR Markit PMI Composite		54.7	54.7
07:30	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		57.7	58.1
07:30	EUR Markit Services PMI		53.4	53.1
08:00	ZAR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			5.1%
08:00	ZAR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.2%
08:00	EUR Markit PMI Composite		55.7	55.7
08:00	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		56.3	56.6
08:00	EUR Markit Services PMI		55.4	55.4
n/a	EUR 10-y Bond Auction			0.49%
10:00	GBP Inflation Report Hearings
11:00	USD MBA Mortgage Applications			0.1%
12:00	BRL Mid-month Inflation			-0.18%
n/a	PLN M3 Money Supply (YoY)			5%
13:00	MXN Retail Sales (YoY)			4.1%
13:00	MXN Retail Sales (MoM)			-0.1%
13:30	BRL Current Account			$1,330B
13:45	USD Markit Manufacturing PMI		53.4	53.3
13:45	USD Markit PMI Composite			54.6
13:45	USD Markit Services PMI		54.9	54.7
14:00	USD New Home Sales (MoM)		0.613M	0.610M
14:00	USD New Home Sales Change (MoM)		0.8%	0.8%
14:00	EUR Consumer Confidence		-1.9	-1.7
14:30	USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks change			-8.945M
22:45	NZD Trade Balance (MoM)			$242M
22:45	NZD Trade Balance (YoY)			$-3.66B
22:45	NZD Exports			$4.7B
22:45	NZD Imports			$4.46B
23:50	JPY Foreign bond investment			¥-145.5B
23:50	JPY Foreign investment in Japan stocks
Thursday, Aug 24
24h	USD Jackson Hole Symposium
05:00	JPY Leading Economic Index			106.3
05:00	JPY Coincident Index			117.2
06:45	EUR Individual Investment (Current Year)			6%
06:45	EUR Business Climate		108	109
07:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)		3.1%	3.0%
07:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)		0.9%	0.8%
07:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)			3.2%
07:00	EUR Export Prices (YoY)			3.6%
07:00	EUR Import Prices (YoY)			8.1%
n/a	SEK Consumer Confidence (MoM)			102.2
07:15	CHF Industrial Production (YoY)			-4.6%
07:15	CHF Industrial Production (QoQ)			-1.6%
07:30	SEK Unemployment Rate			7.4%
08:00	PLN Unemployment (MoM)			7.1%
08:30	GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals			40.2K
08:30	GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY)		1.7%	1.7%
08:30	GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)		0.3%	0.3%
08:30	GBP Total Business Investment (QoQ)			0.6%
08:30	GBP Total Business Investment (YoY)			0.7%
08:30	GBP Index of Services (3M/3M)			0.4%
10:00	GBP CBI Distributive Trades Survey - Realized (MoM)			22%
12:30	USD Continuing Jobless Claims			1.953M
12:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims		239K	232K
13:00	MXN 1st half-month Core Inflation			0.19%
n/a	MXN 1st half-month Inflation			0.24%
13:00	EUR Leading Indicator			-1.5
n/a	RUB Central Bank Reserves $			$419.9B
14:00	USD Existing Home Sales (MoM)		5.57M	5.52M
14:00	USD Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)		0.7%	-1.8%
14:30	USD EIA Natural Gas Storage change			53B
15:00	USD Kansas Fed manufacturing activity			4
21:00	KRW Consumer Sentiment Index			111.2
23:30	JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY)			0.1%
23:30	JPY Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY)		0.3%	0.2%
23:30	JPY Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY)			-0.1%
23:30	JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY)			0.4%
23:30	JPY National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY)			0%
23:30	JPY National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY)		0.5%	0.4%
23:50	JPY Corporate Service Price (YoY)			0.8%
Friday, Aug 25
24h	USD Jackson Hole Symposium
06:00	EUR Import Price Index (MoM)		0.1%	-1.1%
06:00	EUR Import Price Index (YoY)		2.3%	2.5%
06:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)		2.1%	0.8%
06:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)		0.6%	0.6%
06:45	EUR Producer Prices (MoM)			-0.4%
06:45	EUR Consumer Confidence		104	104
n/a	EUR Industrial Production (YoY)			3.6%
07:00	EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks at Jackson Hole
07:30	SEK Producer Price Index (MoM)			-0.8%
07:30	SEK Producer Price Index (YoY)			4.8%
08:00	EUR IFO - Current Assessment		125.0	125.4
08:00	EUR IFO - Business Climate		115.5	116.0
08:00	EUR IFO - Expectations		106.8	107.3
n/a	EUR 10-y Bond Auction			2.16%
n/a	TRY Manufacturing Confidence			109.5
n/a	TRY Capacity Utilization			78.7%
n/a	INR FX Reserves, USD			$393.61B
12:30	USD Durable Goods Orders		-5.5%	6.5%
12:30	USD Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation			0.2%
13:00	MXN Jobless Rate s.a			3.3%
13:00	MXN Jobless Rate			3.3%
17:00	USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count			763
n/a	ARS Trade Balance (MoM)			$-748M
19:30	USD CFTC Oil NC net positions			463.5K
19:30	USD CFTC Gold NC net positions			$187.7K
19:30	USD CFTC USD NC net positions			$150.2K
19:30	GBP CFTC GBP NC net positions			£-31.9K
19:30	JPY CFTC JPY NC net positions			¥-77.5K
19:30	EUR CFTC EUR NC net positions			€79.3K
19:30	AUD CFTC AUD NC net positions			$59.6K
Saturday, Aug 26
24h	USD Jackson Hole Symposium

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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