Forecasting the Coming Week: Fedspeak and FOMC Minutes should rule the sentiment


The Greenback lost further ground and dropped to multi-week lows on the back of rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed, a view that was further reinforced by lower US CPI data in April

The Greenback remained on the back foot and dragged the USD Index (DXY) to the 104.00 zone amidst an equally downward move in US yields. Weekly Mortgage Applications, Existing Home Sales and FOMC Minutes are all due on May 22. The usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, New Home Sales and flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs come on May 23, while Durable Goods Orders and the final Michigan Consumer Sentiment are expected on May 24.

EUR/USD maintained its uptrend well in place, advancing for the fifth week in a row and flirting with the key 1.0900 barrier. Germany’s Producer Prices are due on May 20, while EMU Balance of Trade is expected on May 21. On May 23, the advanced Manufacturing and Services PMIs in Germany and the euro bloc and the flash Consumer Confidence gauge in the euro zone will be unveiled. On May 24, the final Q1 GDP Growth Rate in Germany is due.

GBP/USD extended its march north beyond the 1.2700 mark for the first time since mid-March. In the UK docket, the CBI Industrial Trends Orders are due on May 21, seconded by the Inflation Rate and Public Sector Net Borrowing on May 22. May 23 will see the preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMIs, while Retail Sales and the GfK Consumer Confidence are due on May 24.

USD/JPY traded in a choppy fashion, eventually ending the week with marginal losses around 155.50. The Tertiary Industry Index is due on May 20 ahead of the Reuters Tankan Index, Balance of Trade and Machinery Orders all expected on May 22. On May 23, there will be the weekly Foreign Bond Investment and flash Jibun Bank Manufacturing and Services PMIs. The Inflation Rate will close the week on May 24.

AUD/USD resumed the uptrend and closed the week with marked gains, managing to finally surpass the key 0.6700 barrier. On May 21, the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index and the RBA Minutes are due. The flash Judo Bank Manufacturing and Services PMIs are expected on May 23 along with Consumer Inflation Expectations.

Anticipating Economic Perspectives: Voices on the Horizon

  • Fed’s Powell speaks on May 19.
  • Fed’s Bostic, Barr, Waller and Jefferson speak on May 20 along with BoE’s Broadbent.
  • Fed’s Bostic, Barkin, Williams, Waller and Barr speak on May 21. In addition, ECB’s Lagarde, BoE’s Bailey and US Treasury Secretary Yellen are also due to speak.
  • Fed’s Bostic, Collins and Mester speak on May 22 seconded by BoE’s Breeden.
  • Fed’s Bostic and BoE’s Pill are due to speak on May 23.
  • Fed’s Waller and SNB’s Jordan speak on May 24.

Central Banks: Upcoming Meetings to Shape Monetary Policies

  • The PBoC holds its meeting on May 20.
  • The Hungarian central bank (NBH) meets on May 21.
  • The Bank Indonesia (BI) will meet on May 22 along with the RBNZ.
  • The Bank of Korea (BoK) and the CBRT meet on May 23.
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