- Euro remains under pressure near 1.1100 against the US Dollar.
- Stocks in Europe closed mostly with gains on Friday.
- EUR/USD risks further pullbacks in the short-term horizon.
- US, Eurozone economic calendars are empty at the end of the week.
The Euro (EUR) extends the bearish performance against the US Dollar (USD) at the end of the week, with EUR/USD facing extra selling pressure and hovering around the 1.11100 area, or new weekly lows.
The strong Dollar’s rally this week has driven the pair sharply lower from its 2023 high near 1.1270 on Monday down to current lows in the vicinity of 1.1100 the figure.
Other than some profit taking in light of the pair’s recent strong advance, market chatter suggesting that the Federal Reserve may not end its rate-hiking campaign in July has also boosted the Dollar at the expense of risk assets.
Looking ahead, the pair's spot price seems set for some consolidation ahead of crucial meetings next week by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB). While both central banks are likely to raise rates by 25 bps, an emerging divergence lies in their near-term plans regarding future tightening of their normalization programmes.
Furthermore, the Fed is seen as nearing the end of its hiking cycle, while some ECB rate-setters have sounded less hawkish recently on the prospects for more hikes beyond summer.
In bond markets, yields on both sides of the Atlantic remain directionless during the European morning.
Daily digest market movers: Euro gives away further ground on Dollar buying
- The EUR maintains the trade near 1.1100 against the USD.
- The USD Index remains bid and surpasses 101.00.
- Speculation that the Fed could end its hiking cycle in July looks mitigated.
- US and German bon yields lack clear direction so far on Friday.
- The BoJ defended its current ultra-accommodative stance.
- Retail Sales in the UK for June came in above expectations.
Technical Analysis: Euro faces a deeper correction in the short term
While EUR/USD continues to digest its marked weekly pullback, there is immediate contention at the weekly low of 1.1111 (July 21) ahead of the psychological 1.1000 mark, all seconded by provisional support at the 55-day and 100-day SMAs at 1.0897 and 1.0881, respectively. The loss of this region could open the door to a potential revisit to the July 6 low of 1.0833 ahead of the key 200-day SMA at 1.0687 and the May 31 low of 1.0635. South from here emerges the March 15 low of 1.0516 before the 2023 low of 1.0481 on January 6.
In case bulls regain the upper hand, the next up-barrier emerges at the 2023 high at 1.1275 (July 18). Once this level is cleared, there are no resistance levels of significance until the 2022 peak of 1.1495 recorded on February 10, which is closely followed by the round level of 1.1500.
In the longer run, the constructive view of EUR/USD appears unchanged as long as it trades above the key 200-day SMA.
What is the Euro?
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro?
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
How does economic data influence the value of the Euro?
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro?
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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