There is a lot to digest from the shocking assassination attempt on former President Trump over the weekend. US politics, which was already very divided, has now been marred with violence, Rabobank’s senior FX strategist Jane Foley notes.
France’s budget concerns to weigh on the Euro
“Market pricing can only respond in a binary manner and, for the markets, the complexities of the US political backdrop have been boiled down to the assumption that the weekend events will lead to an increased chance of Trump winning the November Presidential election. That said, market expectations of a September Fed rate cut have been growing over the past couple of weeks.”
“The recent focus of US politics though has been on the divisions within the Democrat party and specifically on the pressure on President Biden to drop his bid to retain the White House this year. The assassination attempt has triggered a round of accusations that the Democrat campaign has been too focused on criticising Trump. There is still plenty of time for the pressures on Biden to grow.”
“Despite the relief that the second round of France’s parliamentary elections last weekend saw the far right pushed into third place, a considerable amount of uncertainty about the country’s budget remains. We see risk that this will weigh on the Euro (EUR) medium-term. Since this could coincide with a fading of Fed rate cut hopes, we see scope for further dips in EUR/USD potentially to 1.05 on a 3-to-6-month view.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
Gold price jumps to fresh record high above $3,200 on US-China tariff war
Gold price sits at all-time highs of $3,219 in the Asian session on Friday. The weakening of the US Dollar and escalating trade war between the US and China provide some support to traditional safe haven asset Gold price amid increased dovish Fed expectations.
USD/JPY recovers losses in sync with US Dollar, retakes 143.50
USD/JPY is trimming losses to retest 143.50 in Asian trading hours on Friday, having tested levels under 143.00. The pair is tracking the US Dollar price action amid persistent trade jitters and US recession fears. The Fed-BoJ divergent policy expectations support the Japanese Yen, keep the weight intact on the pair.
AUD/USD consolidates weekly gains near 0.6250 despite trade tensions
AUD/USD consolidates weekly gains near 0.6250 in Asian trading on Friday. The pair capitalizes on sustained US Dollar weakness even as risk aversion remains at full steam on deepening US-China trade war. The White House confirmed on Thursdayt that the cumulative US tariffs on Chinese goods have risen to 145%.
Can Trump's tariff pause and declining inflation keep Bitcoin afloat? Experts weigh in
Bitcoin dived below $80,000 on Thursday despite US Consumer Price Index data coming in lower than expected and President Donald Trump's 90-day reciprocal tariffs pause on 75 countries.
Trump’s tariff pause sparks rally – What comes next?
Markets staged a dramatic reversal Wednesday, led by a 12% surge in the Nasdaq and strong gains across major indices, following President Trump’s unexpected decision to pause tariff escalation for non-retaliating trade partners.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.