- EUR/USD remains under pressure as the US Dollar appreciates amid likelihood of Trump increasing import tariffs and reducing corporate taxes.
- Trump’s fiscal policies could heighten inflation risks, potentially prompting the Fed to adopt a more restrictive monetary policy stance.
- German Chancellor Olaf Scholz dissolved the ruling coalition, leading to new elections to restore stability amid political uncertainty.
The EUR/USD pair continues to face downward pressure for a second consecutive session, hovering around 1.0720 during Monday’s Asian trading hours. The pair is weighed down by a stronger US Dollar (USD) and political uncertainties in Germany.
Investors are anticipating a less dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, as Donald Trump is likely to pursue his campaign promises to enact substantial tariffs, including a 10% increase on imports and a reduction in corporate taxes.
Analysts suggest that if Trump’s fiscal policies are implemented, they could lead to higher investment, spending, and labor demand, elevating inflation risks. This could prompt the Fed to adopt a more restrictive monetary policy, potentially strengthening the US Dollar and putting additional pressure on the EUR/USD pair.
However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated on Thursday that he doesn’t anticipate Trump’s potential return to the White House impacting the Fed’s near-term policy decisions. “We don’t guess, speculate, and we don’t assume what future government policy choices will be,” Powell noted after the bank decided to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.50%-4.75%, as expected.
On Friday, the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 73.0 in November, up from 70.5 in October and exceeding the market’s expectation of 71.0. This upbeat data has broadly strengthened the Greenback.
In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz appointed a new finance minister after dismissing the previous one, effectively dissolving the ruling coalition. This move has prompted calls from opposition and business leaders for new elections to bring stability amid the political uncertainty.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank noted that higher tariffs from the US could strain the Eurozone’s export sector, potentially impacting economic growth. “Uncertainty is high on many levels, from the exact impact of US tariffs to the timing of their implementation to how and when Europe responds,” they stated.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD remains bid around 1.1200, USD melts on tariff concerns
EUR/usd maintains its bullish stance well in place on Thursday, reaching the 1.1200 barrier and beyond on the back of intense selling pressure on the US Dollar, fuelled by concerns over the impact of Trump's tariffs on the US economy.
GBP/USD settles around 1.2950 on weaker Dollar
GBP/USD advances markedly and extends its breakout of the 1.2900 hurdle amid global trade war jitters and a severe sell-off in the Greenback, which was exacerbated following news of 145% US tariffs on China.
Gold resumes record rally, reaches $3,175
Gold extended its record rally on fresh tariff-related headlines, trading as high as $3,175 a troy ounce in the American session. The White House confirmed 35% levies on Mexico and Canada, 145% on Chinese imports, resulting in a fresh round of USD selling and pushing XAU/USD further up.
Cardano stabilizes near $0.62 after Trump’s 90-day tariff pause-led surge
Cardano stabilizes around $0.62 on Thursday after a sharp recovery the previous day, triggered by US Donald Trump’s decision to pause tariffs for 90 days except for China and other countries that had retaliated against the reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2.
Trump’s tariff pause sparks rally – What comes next?
Markets staged a dramatic reversal Wednesday, led by a 12% surge in the Nasdaq and strong gains across major indices, following President Trump’s unexpected decision to pause tariff escalation for non-retaliating trade partners.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.