EUR/USD Price Analysis: Volatility to escalate as USD Index strengthens ahead of US NFP


  • EUR/USD is gauging a cushion around 1.0900 despite the negative market mood.
  • A bear cross, represented by the 20-and 50-EMAs around 1.0927, adds to the downside filters.
  • The RSI (14) has shifted into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, which indicates more weakness ahead.

The EUR/USD pair is attempting to build a cushion below 1.0900 in the Asian session. The major currency pair has shown wild moves in the past two trading sessions led by Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision-inspired volatility. And is likely to continue further ahead of the United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data.

Meanwhile, the risk profile is showing pessimism as risk-perceived assets like S&P500 futures are facing sheer pressure. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is struggling to surpass the immediate resistance of 101.55. The 10-year US Treasury yields are continuously declining and have refreshed the day’s low below 3.37%.

EUR/USD witnessed a vertical sell-off after an Inventory Distribution chart formation on an hourly scale. The inventory distribution in a minor range of 1.1006-1.1033 indicates a shift of inventory from institutional investors to retail participants.

The shared currency pair has dropped to near the critical support around February 2 low at 1.0885.

The 20-and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) have delivered a bear cross around 1.0927, which indicates more weakness ahead.

Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has shifted into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00 and is indicating more weakness.

The asset might display further weakness after a decisive break below February 2 low at 1.0885, which will drag the asset toward February 1 low at 1.0852 followed by January 31 low around 1.0800.

On the flip side, a break above the intraday high at 1.0916 will strengthen the Euro bulls and will drive the asset toward the horizontal resistance placed from January 23 high at 1.0927 and the psychological resistance at 1.1000.

EUR/USD hourly chart

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price 1.0893
Today Daily Change -0.0021
Today Daily Change % -0.19
Today daily open 1.0914
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 1.0834
Daily SMA50 1.0669
Daily SMA100 1.0313
Daily SMA200 1.0318
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 1.1033
Previous Daily Low 1.0885
Previous Weekly High 1.093
Previous Weekly Low 1.0835
Previous Monthly High 1.093
Previous Monthly Low 1.0483
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0942
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.0977
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.0855
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0796
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0707
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.1003
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.1092
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.1151

 

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD stays in positive territory above 1.0850 after US data

EUR/USD stays in positive territory above 1.0850 after US data

EUR/USD clings to modest daily gains above 1.0850 in the second half of the day on Friday. The improving risk mood makes it difficult for the US Dollar to hold its ground after PCE inflation data, helping the pair edge higher ahead of the weekend.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD stabilizes above 1.2850 as risk mood improves

GBP/USD stabilizes above 1.2850 as risk mood improves

GBP/USD maintains recovery momentum and fluctuates above 1.2850 in the American session on Friday. The positive shift seen in risk mood doesn't allow the US Dollar to preserve its strength and supports the pair.

GBP/USD News

Gold rebounds above $2,380 as US yields stretch lower

Gold rebounds above $2,380 as US yields stretch lower

Following a quiet European session, Gold gathers bullish momentum and trades decisively higher on the day above $2,380. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield loses more than 1% on the day after US PCE inflation data, fuelling XAU/USD's upside.

Gold News

Avalanche price sets for a rally following retest of key support level

Avalanche price sets for a rally following retest of  key support level

Avalanche (AVAX) price bounced off the $26.34 support level to trade at $27.95 as of Friday. Growing on-chain development activity indicates a potential bullish move in the coming days.

Read more

The election, Trump's Dollar policy, and the future of the Yen

The election, Trump's Dollar policy, and the future of the Yen

After an assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump and drop out of President Biden, Kamala Harris has been endorsed as the Democratic candidate to compete against Trump in the upcoming November US presidential election.

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures