EUR/USD Price Analysis: Volatility to escalate as USD Index strengthens ahead of US NFP


  • EUR/USD is gauging a cushion around 1.0900 despite the negative market mood.
  • A bear cross, represented by the 20-and 50-EMAs around 1.0927, adds to the downside filters.
  • The RSI (14) has shifted into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, which indicates more weakness ahead.

The EUR/USD pair is attempting to build a cushion below 1.0900 in the Asian session. The major currency pair has shown wild moves in the past two trading sessions led by Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision-inspired volatility. And is likely to continue further ahead of the United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data.

Meanwhile, the risk profile is showing pessimism as risk-perceived assets like S&P500 futures are facing sheer pressure. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is struggling to surpass the immediate resistance of 101.55. The 10-year US Treasury yields are continuously declining and have refreshed the day’s low below 3.37%.

EUR/USD witnessed a vertical sell-off after an Inventory Distribution chart formation on an hourly scale. The inventory distribution in a minor range of 1.1006-1.1033 indicates a shift of inventory from institutional investors to retail participants.

The shared currency pair has dropped to near the critical support around February 2 low at 1.0885.

The 20-and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) have delivered a bear cross around 1.0927, which indicates more weakness ahead.

Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has shifted into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00 and is indicating more weakness.

The asset might display further weakness after a decisive break below February 2 low at 1.0885, which will drag the asset toward February 1 low at 1.0852 followed by January 31 low around 1.0800.

On the flip side, a break above the intraday high at 1.0916 will strengthen the Euro bulls and will drive the asset toward the horizontal resistance placed from January 23 high at 1.0927 and the psychological resistance at 1.1000.

EUR/USD hourly chart

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price 1.0893
Today Daily Change -0.0021
Today Daily Change % -0.19
Today daily open 1.0914
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 1.0834
Daily SMA50 1.0669
Daily SMA100 1.0313
Daily SMA200 1.0318
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 1.1033
Previous Daily Low 1.0885
Previous Weekly High 1.093
Previous Weekly Low 1.0835
Previous Monthly High 1.093
Previous Monthly Low 1.0483
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0942
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.0977
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.0855
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0796
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0707
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.1003
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.1092
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.1151

 

 

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