EUR/USD Price Analysis: Downside bias remains intact, 1.1250 likely at risk

  • EUR/USD looks south, with 1.1250 at risks amid firmer USD, yields.
  • Bearish RSI supports the potential move lower towards 1.1200.
  • 1.1300 is the level to beat for the EUR bulls for any meaningful recovery.

EUR/USD is seeing some fresh selling pressure, as we progress towards the European opening bell this Monday.

The US dollar remains firmer on the session, tracking the rebound in the Treasury yields across the curve.

From a broader perspective, the euro remains undermined against the greenback, courtesy of the divergence in the monetary policy outlooks between the Fed and the ECB.

The Fed is set to hike the interest rates around mid-2022 while the ECB policymakers have repeatedly denied talks of a rate increase any time next year.

Attention, therefore, now remains on this week’s FOMC minutes for clarity on the Fed’s rate hike timings and the central bank’s tapering pace.

Meanwhile, looking at the currency pair on the four-hour chart, the 1.1250 target has been achieved last Friday, with the downside risks still intact.

At the time of writing, the spot is trading at 1.1268, down 0.16% on the day. If the strong support around 1.1250, the confluence of Friday’s low and the falling trendline, gets breached, then a test of the 1.1200 psychological level will be inevitable.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding the lower ground just above the oversold territory, suggesting that there is more room to the downside.

EUR/USD: Four-hour chart

On the flip side, any meaningful recovery will gain traction on recapturing the 1.1300 level.

The next critical upside barrier is seen at the bearish 21-Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1317.

Further up, the 1.1350 psychological barrier will come into play.

EUR/USD: Additional levels to consider


Today last price 1.1268
Today Daily Change -0.0018
Today Daily Change % -0.16
Today daily open 1.1288
Daily SMA20 1.1509
Daily SMA50 1.1596
Daily SMA100 1.1699
Daily SMA200 1.1859
Previous Daily High 1.1374
Previous Daily Low 1.125
Previous Weekly High 1.1464
Previous Weekly Low 1.125
Previous Monthly High 1.1692
Previous Monthly Low 1.1524
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.1297
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.1327
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.1234
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.118
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.111
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.1358
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.1428
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.1482



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