French lawmakers have voted. Both the left and right wings united to reach a combined vote of 331, well above the 288 simple majority needed. PM Barnier has lost a vote of no-confidence. In Germany, chancellor Scholz is expected to call for a vote of confidence on 11 Dec and the Bundestag will vote on 16 Dec. EUR/USD was last at 1.0527, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong notes.
Daily momentum is mild bullish
“Mr Barnier and cabinet will likely have to resign, and the government goes into caretaker mode. As no legislative elections can be held until 1 year after the last elections (held in July this year), snap election is not possible. The next focus is on Germany. To survive the vote, Scholz would need to receive the support of an absolute majority of 367 votes. But in the event, he fails, then Germany is likely to make way for elections on 23 Feb 2025.”
“And despite the political uncertainties, the EUR has refused to trade much lower. We believe a lot of known negatives are already in the price of EUR – slowing growth momentum, political fallout, ECB cut expectations, etc. EUR bears need a new catalyst to break lower, failing which, shorts could be frustrated.
“We still caution for the risk of short squeeze on any Euro-area positive news or poor US data catalyst. EUR still holds above its lows. Daily momentum is mild bullish while RSI remains flat. Consolidation likely. Resistance at 1.0570 (21 DMA), 1.0610 and 1.0670 (38.2% fibo retracement of Oct high to Nov low). Support at 1.0450 levels before 1.0330.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD rose to fresh highs around 1.1240
EUR/USD maintained its bullish momentum on Thursday, climbing to the 1.1240 region as the US Dollar accelerated its decline amid growing concerns about the economic fallout from Trump's tariffs.
GBP/USD picks up pace, challenges 1.3000
GBP/USD made significant gains, edging just pips shy of the psychological 1.3000 barrier. The advance came amid trade war jitters and a sharp sell-off in the Greenback following the announcement of 145% US tariffs on China.
Gold flirts with record peaks near $3,175, Dollar tumbles
Gold continued its record-setting rally on fresh tariff-related headlines, surging past the $3,170 mark per troy ounce after the White House confirmed new tariffs, sparking another round of US Dollar selling.
Cardano stabilizes near $0.62 after Trump’s 90-day tariff pause-led surge
Cardano stabilizes around $0.62 on Thursday after a sharp recovery the previous day, triggered by US Donald Trump’s decision to pause tariffs for 90 days except for China and other countries that had retaliated against the reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2.
Trump’s tariff pause sparks rally – What comes next?
Markets staged a dramatic reversal Wednesday, led by a 12% surge in the Nasdaq and strong gains across major indices, following President Trump’s unexpected decision to pause tariff escalation for non-retaliating trade partners.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.