The Euro (EUR) retraced early week’s losses to end the week flat, OCBC’s FX strategists Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
Factors may be supportive of EUR upside
“Lack of ECB dovishness and broad USD weakness were some of the factors underpinning EUR’s late comeback for the week. A day later, she told reporters that ECB is open to considering a rate cut in October if the economy suffers a major setback though the next comprehensive set of information will only be available at the following meeting (which is December). Banque de France’s Villeroy added that the pace has to be highly pragmatic and that policymakers are not pre-committing to any particular rate path, and they keep their full optionality for next meetings.”
“Other ECB officials also chimed in: 1/ Simkus said that policymakers will need strategic patience as they plot the course ahead and services inflation, wage dynamics are the key uncertainties; 2/ Holzmann said there could be room for another 25bp cut in Dec meeting; 3/ Kazaks said that a cut can be considered if economy feels significantly weaker than is currently expected and inflation also significantly declines; 4/ Rehn said that growth remains slow in the euro-area and downside risks to growth have increased over the summer.”
“On net, the focus is on growth. If growth momentum decelerates significantly, then rate cut cycle may pick up pace. But as of now, there is no rush and ECB prefers to maintain full optionality. On this note, ECB’s no rush to ease vs. greater room for Fed to ease may be supportive of EUR upside. Bearish momentum on daily chart shows signs of fading while RSI rose. Risks are slightly skewed to the upside for now. Resistance here at 1.1140 and 1.12 levels. Support at 1.1010, 1.0970 (50-DMA, 38.2% fibo retracement of 2024 low to high).”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD corrects sharply toward 1.0950 ahead of US NFP, Powell
EUR/USD is extending its correction toward 1.0950 in the European session on Friday. The US Dollar has come up for air after the trade war and recession fears-led sell-off, weighing on the pair. Traders look to the US NFP report and Fed Chair Powell's speech for fresh directives.
GBP/USD remains heavy near 1.3000, US NFP data awaited
GBP/USD is battling 1.3000, under heavy selling pressure in European trading on Friday. Traders resort to profit-taking on their US Dollar short positiions, re-adjusting ahead of the critical US Nonfarm Payrolls data and Fed Chair Powell speech.
Gold price sticks to negative bias around $3,100; bears seem non-committed ahead of US NFP report
Gold price meets with a fresh supply on Friday, though the downside potential seems limited. Trump’s tariffs-inspired risk-off mood might continue to act as a tailwind for the precious metal. Fed rate cut bets weigh on the USD and also contribute to limiting losses for the XAU/USD pair.
Nonfarm Payrolls forecast: US jobs growth set to slow in March amid growing worries over US tariffs
Nonfarm Payrolls are forecast to rise by 135K in March, following a 151K gain reported in February. The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the jobs data on Friday at 12:30 GMT. US labor data could impact the Fed’s interest rate path, potentially affecting the US Dollar's price action.
Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs on the way
United States (US) President Donald Trump’s self-styled “Liberation Day” has finally arrived. After four straight failures to kick off Donald Trump’s “day one” tariffs that were supposed to be implemented when President Trump assumed office 72 days ago, Trump’s team is slated to finally unveil a sweeping, lopsided package of “reciprocal” tariffs.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.