- EUR/JPY eyes above 166.00 amid weakness in the Japanese Yen.
- The BoJ seems incapable of hiking interest rates further.
- Investors await Eurozone macroeconomic data and the BoJ policy announcement.
The EUR/JPY pair aims to extend its rally above the immediate resistance of 166.00 in Tuesday’s North American. The cross remains firm as the Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens across the forex domain amid expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is incapable of hiking interest rates further in the remaining year.
Market speculation for the BoJ to leave interest rates unchanged at their current levels by the year-end has strengthened after the outcome of Japan elections in which the ruling party failed to gain a majority. This has raised uncertainty over economic growth stability.
Meanwhile, investors await the BoJ’s interest rate decision on Thursday in which the central bank is expected to leave its key borrowing rates unchanged at 0.25%. Therefore, investors will keenly focus on the interest rate guidance.
In the Eurozone region, investors await a string of macroeconomic data such as preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for October, which will be published on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. The economic data will significantly influence market expectations for the European Central Bank’s (ECB) likely size for interest rate cuts in its last monetary policy meeting of this year in December.
A few ECB officials are worried about the risks of price pressures remaining below the bank’s target of 2% for a longer period due to growing downside risks to economic growth.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
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