- EUR/JPY edges down 0.03%, pressured by suspected last week FX intervention.
- Technical outlook remains upward as price action stays above the Ichimoku Cloud.
- Key supports at 172.00, 171.58, and 170.56; resistance levels at 172.45 and 173.43.
The EUR/JPY remains under pressure for the third straight day after Japanese authorities intervened in the FX space last Thursday, although policymakers have not confirmed this. The cross-pair trades at 172.12, down 0.03%.
EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook
From a daily chart perspective, the pair is upward biased as price action stills above the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo) and a series of successive higher highs and lows, which could pave the way for further upside.
As measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the momentum suggests that sellers had stepped in firmly, as the RSI hovers around the 50-neutral line, following a steep fall.
Given the backdrop, the EUR/JPY could consolidate in the short term. If the pair falls below 172.00, that can pave the way for further loss. The following support would be Kijun-Sen at 171.58, ahead of the 50-day moving average (DMA) at 170.56, ahead of the psychological 170.00 figure, ahead of the Senkou Span B at 169.92.
On further strength, the EUR/JPY first resistance would be the Senkou Span A at 172.45 before testing the Tenkan-Sen at 173.43.
EUR/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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