Analysts at Nomura explained that despite Friday’s weak CPI inflation print, the dollar performed strongly in the first half of the week, aided by above-consensus retail sales numbers and hawkish comments from NY Fed Dudley suggesting that he would support a further hike in 2017 if the data warranted it.
Key Quotes:
"Nonetheless, these gains were reversed in part later in the week by dovish FOMC minutes and continued political turbulence in Washington.
Wednesday’s FOMC minutes showed continued uncertainty on inflation with ‘many participants’ seeing some likelihood inflation could remain below 2% for longer than currently expected, with risks tilted to the downside. Inflation prints between now and the December meeting remain highly important for the FOMC and the market.
There were also discussions on financial conditions, despite having increased rates three times since December, financial conditions have eased in the US. Finally, there was a continued consensus on balance-sheet reduction at September’s FOMC meeting.
Based on the minutes, and our expectations that the August CPI data will not contain another large downward surprise and that financial conditions do not change drastically, our economists’ maintain their call for a December rate hike.
President Trump has faced a challenging week in the White House. Meanwhile, the 29 September deadline Mnuchin has set for the debt ceiling bill to be passed approaches. Our economics and rates teams find that the risks of breaching the debt limit are lower than in 2011 and 2013, but slightly higher than in 2015. FX markets and FX vols tend not to react in the same way that Treasuries have ahead of debt ceiling limit breaches, and historically debt negotiations do not become serious until the closing bell gets much closer.
Tail risk hedges are unlikely to build during the August recess, but if discussions show signs of deadlock in September, then the market may begin to take notice."
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD falls back toward 1.1150 as US Dollar rebounds
EUR/USD is falling back toward 1.1150 in European trading on Friday, reversing early gains. Risk sentiment sours and lifts the haven demand for the US Dollar, fuelling a pullback in the pair. The focus now remains on the Fedspeak for fresh directives.
GBP/USD struggles near 1.3300 amid renewed US Dollar demand
GBP/USD is paring back gains to trade near 1.3300 in the European session. The data from the UK showed that Retail Sales rose at a stronger pace than expected in August, briefly supporting Pound Sterling but the US Dollar comeback checks the pair's upside. Fedspeak eyed.
Gold hits new highs on expectations of global cuts to interest rates
Gold (XAU/USD) breaks to a new record high near $2,610 on Friday on heightened expectations that global central banks will follow the Federal Reserve (Fed) in easing policy and slashing interest rates.
Pepe price forecast: Eyes for 30% rally
Pepe’s price broke and closed above the descending trendline on Thursday, eyeing for a rally. On-chain data hints at a bullish move as PEPE’s dormant wallets are active, and the long-to-short ratio is above one.
Bank of Japan set to keep rates on hold after July’s hike shocked markets
The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its short-term interest rate target between 0.15% and 0.25% on Friday, following the conclusion of its two-day monetary policy review. The decision is set to be announced during the early Asian session.
Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know
VERIFIED In this review, the FXStreet team provides an independent and thorough analysis based on direct testing and real experiences with Moneta Markets – an excellent broker for novice to intermediate forex traders who want to broaden their knowledge base.