Analysts at Danske Bank continue to see as a base case scenario that an agreement that includes a simple tree trade agreement on goods, not services, after the European summer. 

Key Quotes: 

“UK has now formally ruled out extending the transition period running until 31 December 2020, as expected. The UK and the EU have agreed to hold more negotiation rounds in July and August. The ambition is now to reach an agreement in August ahead of the EU summit in October. There are signs that both sides may be willing to soften their positions during these negotiations, but comments after the meeting suggest the individual negotiating positions are unchanged.”

“Our base case (65%) remains a simple free trade agreement on goods (not services) in the autumn. We do not expect any breakthrough this summer. We still assign a 35% probability of a no deal Brexit by year-end.”
 

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