Brexit: Despite defeat, May set to trigger Article 50 before end of March - Danske Bank

According to analysts from Danske Bank, UK PM, Theresa May, could still trigger the Article 50 before ‘end of March’ despite defeat in House of Lords yesterday. 

Key Quotes: 

“The UK government suffered a defeat in the House of Lords (358 voted in favour, 256 voted against), as the Lords voted for an amendment to the EU bill demanding proposals to protect the rights of EU citizens currently living in the UK. The EU bill, which needs to be approved by both houses, is now being sent back to the House of Commons, which will vote on the amendments on 13-14 March.”

“PM Theresa May has said that the UK will still trigger Article 50 before the ‘end of March’. The UK government is confident the House of Commons will vote down the amendment, as the Conservative Party and Labour together have a solid majority”

“The House of Lords is not expected to send it back to the House of Commons once more although theoretically it could do so. Although the UK government could simply just ask the House of Commons to vote for the amendments to get going with the Brexit process, the UK government is reluctant to do so, as the PM may does not want her hands tied before the negotiations with the EU.”

“In our view, it seems likely that the UK and the EU will quickly reach an agreement on this issue when the Brexit negotiations begin. The defeat means that PM Theresa May cannot trigger Article 50 at the EU summit in
Malta on 9-10 March but has to wait until 15 March at the earliest. She is not expected to wait until the end of the month, as it clashes with the celebration of the 60-year anniversary of the Rome treaty on 25 March. Thus, the defeat does not prevent a triggering of Article 50 but only postpones it by a few days.”