AUD/USD rally stalls near 0.6800 with Aussie inflation in focus
- AUD/USD struggles to extend its upside above 0.6800 as investors have sidelined ahead of Aussie inflation for July.
- The appeal of risky assets remains firm amid optimism over Fed interest rate cuts in September.
- The next move in the US Dollar will be guided by the US core PCE inflation for July.
The AUD/USD pair turns sideways after a juggernaut rally to a fresh six-week high near 0.6800 in Tuesday’s European session. The rally in the Aussie asset appears to have stalled as investors shift focus to the Australian monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July, which will be published on Wednesday.
Annually, the inflation data is estimated to have decelerated to 3.4% from the prior release of 3.8%. An expected decline in price pressures would market speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is unlikely to cut interest rates this year.
Meanwhile, upbeat market sentiment continues to cushion the downside in the Australian Dollar (AUD). The market mood seems favorable for risky assets, given that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely anticipated to start reducing interest rates from the September meeting. S&P 500 futures have posted decent gains in European trading hours. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against six major currencies, struggles to gain ground after posting a fresh year-to-date low of 100.53.
Although Fed September interest rate cuts appear certain, traders remain split over the potential rate-cut size. According to the CME FedWatch tool, 30-day Federal Funds Futures pricing data shows that the probability of a 50-basis points (bps) interest rate reduction in September is 28.5%, while the rest points to a 25-bps rate cut.
For fresh cues about the likely size, investors await the United States (US) core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for July, which will be published on Friday. The annual core PCE is estimated to have accelerated to 2.7% from the prior release of 2.6%, with monthly figures growing steadily by 0.2%.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
