|

AUD/USD Price Analysis: Retreats from 200-SMA as bears brace for 0.6580

  • AUD/USD takes a U-turn from intraday high as the key SMA probes recovery.
  • Failure to cross key hurdles, downbeat oscillators favor sellers.
  • Bears eye late November swing low, 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
  • One-month-old previous support line adds to the upside filters.

AUD/USD takes offers to refresh the intraday low near 0.6655 during early Wednesday morning in Europe.

The Aussie pair’s failure to extend the corrective bounce off 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of November-December upside beyond the 200-SMA appears to favor the AUD/USD bears of late.

Adding strength to the bearish bias are the sluggish MACD signals and the RSI (14) that remains downbeat.

As a result, AUD/USD sellers are back to attacking the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) level of 0.6655, a break of which could quickly direct bears toward the convergence of the 50% Fibo. level and the late November swing low, close to 0.6580.

It’s worth noting that the November 08 swing high near 0.6550 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, also known as the “Golden Ratio”, around 0.6510, could challenge the AUD/USD downside past 0.6580.

Alternatively, the 200-SMA hurdle surrounding the 0.6700 round figure guards the AUD/USD pair’s immediate recovery.

Following that, the support-turned-resistance line from November 21, close to 0.6740 at the latest, will act as the last defense of the AUD/USD pair sellers.

Overall, AUD/USD is up for a refreshing monthly low but the downside past 0.6580 has limited room towards the south.

AUD/USD: Four-hour chart

Trend: Further downside expected

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price0.6664
Today Daily Change-0.0006
Today Daily Change %-0.09%
Today daily open0.667
 
Trends
Daily SMA200.6744
Daily SMA500.6574
Daily SMA1000.6664
Daily SMA2000.6891
 
Levels
Previous Daily High0.6744
Previous Daily Low0.6629
Previous Weekly High0.6893
Previous Weekly Low0.6675
Previous Monthly High0.6801
Previous Monthly Low0.6272
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%0.6673
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%0.67
Daily Pivot Point S10.6618
Daily Pivot Point S20.6566
Daily Pivot Point S30.6503
Daily Pivot Point R10.6733
Daily Pivot Point R20.6796
Daily Pivot Point R30.6848

Author

Anil Panchal

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

More from Anil Panchal
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD bounces toward 1.1750 as US Dollar loses strength

EUR/USD returned to the 1.1750 price zone in the American session on Friday, despite falling Wall Street, which indicates risk aversion. Trading conditions remain thin following the New Year holiday and ahead of the weekend, with the focus shifting to US employment and European data scheduled for next week.

GBP/USD nears 1.3500, holds within familiar levels

After testing 1.3400 on the last day of 2025, GBP/USD managed to stage a rebound. Nevertheless, the pair finds it difficult to gather momentum and trades with modest intraday gains at around 1.3490 as market participants remain in holiday mood.

Gold trims intraday gains, approaches $4,300

Gold retreated sharply from the $4,400  area and trades flat for the day in the $4,320 price zone. Choppy trading conditions exacerbated the intraday decline, although XAU/USD bearish case is out of the picture, considering growing expectations for a dovish Fed and persistent geopolitical tensions.

Cardano gains early New Year momentum, bulls target falling wedge breakout

Cardano kicks off the New Year on a positive note and is extending gains, trading above $0.36 at the time of writing on Friday. Improving on-chain and derivatives data point to growing bullish interest, while the technical outlook keeps an upside breakout in focus.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).