AUD/USD Price Analysis: Absence of recovery signals favors more downside, 0.6500 eyed


  • AUD/USD is attempting to scale above 0.6600, however, the risk-off mood is still intact.
  • A Doji candlestick formation indicates indecisiveness among market participants.
  • An oscillation in the 20.00-40.00 range by the RSI (14) indicates that the bearish momentum is currently active.

The AUD/USD pair is displaying a subdued performance below 0.6600 in the Asian session. The upside in the Aussie asset seems restricted as Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe has considered a pause in the rate-hiking spree and the Chinese economy is struggling to accelerate domestic demand despite significant reopening measures.

S&P500 futures have witnessed immense pressure as a sense of deflation conveyed by Chinese Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data indicates that the economy will take plenty of time to strengthen its economic outlook.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is auctioning in a limited range above 105.20 as investors are awaiting the release of the United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for fresh impetus.

AUD/USD has formed a Doji candlestick pattern, which indicates indecisiveness among the sentiment of market participants for further direction. Usually, a Doji formation indicates a reversal after an established trend. However, it requires more filters to confirm a reversal. Also, the negligence of Doji is considered as the continuation of the ongoing trend.

The Australian Dollar might continue to face selling pressure from the 10-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at around 0.6700.

An oscillation in the 20.00-40.00 range by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) indicates that the bearish momentum is currently active. The momentum indicator is not shown any sign of divergence and a situation of oversold.

Going forward, a breakdown of Wednesday’s low at 0.6568 will drag the asst toward the horizontal support plotted from October 4 high at 0.6547 followed by the round-level support at 0.6500.

In an alternate scenario, a break above Doji’s high at 0.6629 will push the Aussie asset toward December 22 low at 0.6650. A break above the same might expose the major to February 27 low near 0.6700.

AUD/USD daily chart

AUD/USD

Overview
Today last price 0.6596
Today Daily Change 0.0002
Today Daily Change % 0.03
Today daily open 0.6594
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 0.6811
Daily SMA50 0.6893
Daily SMA100 0.676
Daily SMA200 0.6784
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 0.6629
Previous Daily Low 0.6568
Previous Weekly High 0.6784
Previous Weekly Low 0.6695
Previous Monthly High 0.7158
Previous Monthly Low 0.6698
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.6606
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.6591
Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6565
Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6536
Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6504
Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6626
Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6658
Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6687

 

 

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