- The US Dollar strengthened ahead of the weekly close on the back of mixed data.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its decision on monetary policy next week.
- AUD/USD fell to its lowest since August, maintaining the bearish pressure.
The US Dollar (USD) soared in the last trading session of the week, with the AUD/USD pair falling towards 0.6380, a level last seen in August. Without data releases in Australia, the market focused on the United States (US) macroeconomic developments.
Mixed employment figures initially weighed on the USD, but a better-than-anticipated preliminary estimate of the US Consumer Sentiment Index flipped the coin. The index unexpectedly improved to 74 in December from 71.8 in the previous month, surpassing the expected 73.
Beforehand, the US published the November Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report. The headline figure showed 227K new jobs were added in the month, higher than the 200K anticipated by market analysts. Also, the Unemployment Rate ticked marginally higher, from 4.1% previously to the expected 4.2%.
The NFP report also showed that the Labor Force Participation Rate edged lower to 62.5%, while the annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, held steady at 4%, coming in above the market forecast of 3.9%. The uptick in inflationary pressures fueled bets of an upcoming December rate cut, now at roughly 83% from 71% on Thursday, according to the CME FedWatch Toll.
Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will have a monetary policy meeting next week. The central bank will announce its decision, and it is widely anticipated that interest rates will be kept on hold. The Official Cash Rate (OCR) has been steady at 4.35% since November 2023, when the RBA delivered its latest interest rate hike.
Growth in Australia has been tepid, and RBA’s Governor Michele Bullock should take note of that. The earliest a rate cut is expected, however, is February 2025, with mounting bets it could be delayed up to March.
AUD/USD Technical Outlook
The Australian Dollar (AUD) pressures its multi-month lows against the USD. The AUD/USD pair trades around 0.6370, with the next support level at 0.6360, the April 2024 monthly low, followed by 0.6347, the low posted in August. Beyond the latter, market players will likely target the 0.6300 mark.
The former weekly low at 0.6398 provides resistance ahead of the 0.6430 price zone.
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