AUD/USD pierces 0.7100 on upbeat Australia Retail Sales, Fed in focus


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  • AUD/USD renews intraday high as Aussie Retail Sales crossed forecasts.
  • Australia’s Retail Sales rose 1.6% MoM in March.
  • Sluggish sentiment ahead of the key FOMC, off in Japan, China also restricts the pair’s moves.
  • US data, risk catalysts will also be important for trading directions.

AUD/USD grinds higher as it renews intraday top around 0.7110 on firmer Aussie Retail Sales data for March. In doing so, the Aussie pair extends the previous day’s recovery from a three-month low amid pre-Fed anxiety.

Australia’s Retail Sales for March rose past 0.6% market consensus to 1.6%, versus 1.8% prior. Earlier in the day, Australia’s S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs eased below the previous readouts of 56.2 and 56.6 to 55.9 and 56.1 in that order.

Despite the recently softer data, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish play, as well as hopes of no major positive surprise from the Fed, underpin the AUD/USD rebound of late. Adding to the corrective pullback are the mild gains of equities in the US.

It should be observed that holidays in China and Japan also restrict bond moves in Asia and allow the Aussie pair to portray recovery moves.

That being said, the AUD/USD prices rallied the previous day the most in a fortnight after the RBA superseded market expectations of a 0.15% rate hike with 25 basis points (bps) of a lift to the benchmark rate. Not only that, the Australian central bank’s readiness for more such moves, considering inflation fears and economic resilience, also favored the pair on Tuesday.

The AUD/USD recovery, however, was against the strong prints of the US JOLTS Job Openings and Factory Orders for March. The reason for the pair’s latest recovery could also be linked to the hopes that the Fed won’t go beyond the already priced-in measures.

Even so, the Fed is known for surprises and the hot inflation requires attention, which in turn makes today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) the key event. Also important will be April’s outcome of the US ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change, as well as geopolitical and covid-linked headlines.

Technical analysis

March’s low of 0.7165 appears as a short-term ceiling for the AUD/USD prices even as the RSI rebound challenges bears targeting the yearly low surrounding 0.6965.

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price 0.7103
Today Daily Change 0.0009
Today Daily Change % 0.13%
Today daily open 0.7094
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 0.7306
Daily SMA50 0.7346
Daily SMA100 0.7261
Daily SMA200 0.7285
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 0.7148
Previous Daily Low 0.7046
Previous Weekly High 0.7257
Previous Weekly Low 0.7054
Previous Monthly High 0.7662
Previous Monthly Low 0.7054
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.7109
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.7085
Daily Pivot Point S1 0.7044
Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6994
Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6942
Daily Pivot Point R1 0.7146
Daily Pivot Point R2 0.7198
Daily Pivot Point R3 0.7248

 

 

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