AUD/USD neutral as US GDP data misses expectations


  • US Q4 GDP growth slows to 2.3%, missing estimates of 2.6%.
  • Fed holds rates at 4.25%-4.50%, maintaining cautious stance on inflation progress.
  • AUD/USD stands soft around 0.6235, RBA rate cut expectations limits upside.

The AUD/USD pair stands neutral around 0.6235 on Thursday, struggling to gain traction ahead of the US Q4 GDP data release. The Federal Reserve opted to keep interest rates steady but maintained a cautious tone, expressing concerns over stalled disinflation progress. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to shift toward a policy-easing stance in the coming month, further weighing on the Aussie.

US GDP misses forecasts, Fed holds rates steady

The latest US economic data showed that growth slowed in the final quarter of 2024. Preliminary figures revealed that GDP expanded at an annualized pace of 2.3%, falling short of the 2.6% consensus and marking a notable drop from the 3.1% growth seen in the previous quarter. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index jumped to 2.3%, reflecting stronger inflationary pressures, while core PCE remained steady at 2.2%, below expectations of 2.5%.
Additionally, US jobless claims declined more than expected, with initial claims falling to 207,000 from 223,000 the previous week, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance on potential rate cuts. The central bank left rates unchanged as anticipated but removed language about inflation progress toward the 2% target, signaling a more watchful approach. Fed Chair Jerome Powell later clarified that this change was not intended to send a signal about policy direction, which slightly softened the initial hawkish interpretation.

Investors are closely monitoring upcoming economic data, particularly the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report on Friday, for further clues on the Fed’s policy trajectory. Meanwhile, sentiment around the Aussie remains weak as RBA rate cut bets intensify, with analysts at ANZ predicting a 25-basis-point reduction in February.

Technical overview

AUD/USD remains range-bound, showing limited upside momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 47, still in negative territory but rising. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram prints green bars, hinting at potential upside correction.

Key resistance stands at 0.6250. On the downside, 0.6200 serves as key support, with a break below opening the door toward 0.6170. Until a clear breakout occurs, the pair is likely to remain in consolidation mode.

AUD/USD daily chart

 

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

XM
Account
7.2
Tools
9.2
Service
9.4
Trading
9.0
Trust
7.0
Experience
8.4
Read review
Moneta Markets
Account
7.4
Tools
6.6
Service
8.0
Trading
6.6
Trust
5.2
Experience
9.2
Read review
Trading Pro
Account
7.2
Tools
5.2
Service
6.6
Trading
8.0
Trust
5.0
Experience
7.0
Read review
Pepperstone
Account
8.2
Tools
8.2
Service
7.4
Trading
9.0
Trust
8.8
Experience
9.0
Read review
XM
Read review
Moneta Markets
Read review
Trading Pro
Read review
Pepperstone
Read review
Trading Pro
Read review
Pepperstone
Read review
XM
Read review
Moneta Markets
Read review
Trading Pro
Account
7.2
Tools
5.2
Service
6.6
Trading
8.0
Trust
5.0
Experience
7.0
Read review
Pepperstone
Account
8.2
Tools
8.2
Service
7.4
Trading
9.0
Trust
8.8
Experience
9.0
Read review
XM
Account
7.2
Tools
9.2
Service
9.4
Trading
9.0
Trust
7.0
Experience
8.4
Read review
Moneta Markets
Account
7.4
Tools
6.6
Service
8.0
Trading
6.6
Trust
5.2
Experience
9.2
Read review

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

Gold hovers around all-time highs near $3,250

Gold hovers around all-time highs near $3,250

 

Gold is holding steady near the $3,250 mark, fuelled by robust safe-haven demand, trade war concerns, and a softer-than-expected US inflation gauge. The US Dollar keeps trading with heavy losses around three-year lows.

Gold News
EUR/USD retreats towards 1.1300 as Wall Street shrugs off trade war headlines

EUR/USD retreats towards 1.1300 as Wall Street shrugs off trade war headlines

The EUR/USD pair retreated further from its recent multi-month peak at 1.1473 and trades around the 1.1300 mark. Wall Street manages to advance ahead of the weekly close, despite escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing and mounting fears of a US recession. Profit-taking ahead of the close also weighs on the pair. 

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD trims gains, recedes to the 1.3050 zone

GBP/USD trims gains, recedes to the 1.3050 zone

GBP/USD now gives away part of the earlier advance to fresh highs near 1.3150. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains offered amid escalating China-US trade tensions, recession fears in the US, and softer-than-expected US Producer Price data.

GBP/USD News
Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin and Cardano stabilze –  Why crypto is in limbo

Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin and Cardano stabilze –  Why crypto is in limbo

Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin and Cardano stabilize on Friday as crypto market capitalization steadies around $2.69 trillion. Crypto traders are recovering from the swing in token prices and the Monday bloodbath. 

Read more
Is a recession looming?

Is a recession looming?

Wall Street skyrockets after Trump announces tariff delay. But gains remain limited as Trade War with China continues. Recession odds have eased, but investors remain fearful. The worst may not be over, deeper market wounds still possible.

Read more
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD

The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD

SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures

Best Brokers of 2025