AUD/USD consolidates near 0.6750 as investors await US Inflation


  • AUD/USD trades sideways with US Inflation in focus.
  • Fed Powell cited concerns over easing US labor market strength.
  • The RBA is expected to leave interest rates unchanged for the entire year.

The AUD/USD pair stays in a tight range near 0.6750 in Wednesday’s European session. The Aussie asset turns sideways as investors have sidelined with focus on the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be published on Thursday.

The inflation data will provide cues about when the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start reducing interest rates. Meanwhile, market sentiment remains firm as investors see the Fed reducing interest rates in September meeting a done deal due to easing US labor market conditions. S&P 500 futures have posted some gains in European trading hours. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, hovers near 105.00.

On Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in the semi-annual Congressional testimony on Tuesday that escalated inflation has not remained the only risk to Fed’s dual mandate. Powell cautioned about easing US labor market strength as the US is no longer an overheated economy.

Latest US Nonfarm Payrolls data also showed a slowing trend in job demand, a rise in the Unemployment Rate to its highest in more than two years and expected slowdown in Average Hourly Earnings, a wage growth measure.

On the Aussie front, growing speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be the last to join the global rate-cutting cycle has kept the Australian Dollar (AUD) on the front foot. The RBA is expected to keep its Official Cash Rate (OCR) at its current levels for the entire year due to reversed disinflation process, prompted by strong consumer spendings.

Australian Dollar FAQs

One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.

China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.

Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.

The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

Australian Dollar holds gains ahead of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Australian Dollar holds gains ahead of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

The Australian Dollar recovers its losses as soft US inflation data raises expectations of Fed reducing rates. China's Trade Balance for June came in at $99.05 billion, widening from the previous figure of $82.62 billion. Fed’s Goolsbee stated that the US economy appears to be on track to achieve 2% target inflation.

AUD/USD News

EUR/USD: The door appears open to extra gains in the near term

EUR/USD: The door appears open to extra gains in the near term

Another auspicious week saw EUR/USD trade with decent gains and extend its positive streak for the third consecutive week, including a visit to the key 1.0900 region for the first time since early June.

EUR/USD News

Gold turns bullish as US data bolster case for Fed rate cut in September

Gold turns bullish as US data bolster case for Fed rate cut in September

Gold gathered bullish momentum and climbed above $2,400 on broad-based USD weakness. Investors expect the Fed to reduce the policy rate in September after soft inflation data. XAU/USD could target a new all-time high once $2,400 is confirmed as support.

Gold News

Three reasons why Chainlink could rally

Three reasons why Chainlink could rally

Chainlink holders have consistently realized losses in July. On-chain trackers have identified accumulation by large wallet investors, however the overall trend is whales shedding their holdings. 

Read more

Trump safe after shots fired in assassination attempt at Pennsylvania rally

Trump safe after shots fired in assassination attempt at Pennsylvania rally

In a fateful incident during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania on Saturday, Former President Donald Trump was injured in an assassination attempt. Several bullet shots were fired at Donald Trump’s rally and one such shot ripped the upper part of his right ear.

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures