- AUD/USD trades sideways with US Inflation in focus.
- Fed Powell cited concerns over easing US labor market strength.
- The RBA is expected to leave interest rates unchanged for the entire year.
The AUD/USD pair stays in a tight range near 0.6750 in Wednesday’s European session. The Aussie asset turns sideways as investors have sidelined with focus on the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be published on Thursday.
The inflation data will provide cues about when the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start reducing interest rates. Meanwhile, market sentiment remains firm as investors see the Fed reducing interest rates in September meeting a done deal due to easing US labor market conditions. S&P 500 futures have posted some gains in European trading hours. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, hovers near 105.00.
On Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in the semi-annual Congressional testimony on Tuesday that escalated inflation has not remained the only risk to Fed’s dual mandate. Powell cautioned about easing US labor market strength as the US is no longer an overheated economy.
Latest US Nonfarm Payrolls data also showed a slowing trend in job demand, a rise in the Unemployment Rate to its highest in more than two years and expected slowdown in Average Hourly Earnings, a wage growth measure.
On the Aussie front, growing speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be the last to join the global rate-cutting cycle has kept the Australian Dollar (AUD) on the front foot. The RBA is expected to keep its Official Cash Rate (OCR) at its current levels for the entire year due to reversed disinflation process, prompted by strong consumer spendings.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD turns negative near 1.1000, Dollar trims losses
The now mild bounce in the US Dollar puts EUR/USD under pressure and drags it back to the proximity of the 1.1000 support as investors continue to assess the stronger-than-expected NFP figures in March (+228K).
GBP/USD stays offered around 1.3000 on USD-buying
The now generalised selling pressure hurting the risk complex sends GBP/USD back to the 1.3000 neighbourhood amid heavy losses and the marked rebound in the Greenback, particulalry following solid prints from the US labour market report.
Gold remains on the back foot around $3,000 after US Payrolls
In the wake of March’s US labour market report, Gold prices maintain their offered tone around the critical $3,000 mark per troy ounce amid marginal gains in the Greenback and further weakness in US yields.
Can Maker break $1,450 hurdle as whales launch buying spree?
Maker holds steadily above $1,250 support as a whale scoops $1.21 million worth of MKR. Addresses with a 100k to 1 million MKR balance now account for 24.27% of Maker’s total supply. Maker battles a bear flag pattern as bulls gather for an epic weekend move.
Strategic implications of “Liberation Day”
Liberation Day in the United States came with extremely protectionist and inward-looking tariff policy aimed at just about all U.S. trading partners. In this report, we outline some of the more strategic implications of Liberation Day and developments we will be paying close attention to going forward.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.