AUD/NZD sees slight uptick ahead of RBNZ decision, hawkish RBA

AUD/NZD opened the week mildly higher at around 1.0990.
New Zealand's struggling economy still causes worries, as the market awaits the RBNZ meeting later this week.
The RBA continues its hawkish tone, creating a favorable outlook for the Aussie.

Patricio Martín FXStreet

Following a climb to the highest level since mid-May and gaining more than 1.20% since late June, the AUD/NZD buyers stepped back to secure some gains but the pair is poised for some consolidation. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)'s Wednesday meetup and while New Zealand's economic performance still shows signs of struggle, fundamentals lean in favor of the Aussie.

In New Zealand, the focus is on ongoing concerns such as the sluggish economic outlook and the coming meetings of the RBNZ on Wednesday where a hold is priced in. Other mid-tier data this week include the Consumer Inflation expectations and NZ PMIs on Wednesday and Thursday which might fuel moves on the NZD dynamics.

Despite markets betting on a 60% probability of a rate hike by the end of the year, as shown in the RBNZ’s May rate path projection, the market strongly anticipates a November rate cut. Some even foresee an earlier cut in October, considering New Zealand's slowing growth.

Meanwhile, in Australia, the latest hot inflation data has ramped up market expectations. The market now suggests an almost 40% chance of a 25 bps rate hike on the September 24 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), rising to around 50% by November 5. The RBA recently has been contemplating raising rates, thus benefiting the Aussie.

AUD/NZD technical analysis

Short-term, the AUD/NZD maintains a bullish stance, though the looming potential for a correction as indicated by nearing overbought conditions warrants caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits close to 70 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to display rising green bars on the chart.

Support levels lie at 1.0950, 1.0930, and 1.0900. Buyers will be eyeing 1.1000 as the next resistance target. A correction might be on the horizon, but as long as the AUD/NZD stays above the 20, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), the outlook remains favorable.

AUD/NZD daily chart

Author

Patricio Martín

FXStreet

Patricio is an economist from Argentina passionate about global finance and understanding the daily movements of the markets.

AUD/USD stays bid above 0.7100 on Australian trade data, Mideast optimism

AUD/USD clings to minor recovery gains above 0.7100 in the Asian session on Thursday as a new Israel-Lebanon ceasefire keeps a lid on the safe-haven US Dollar. Meanwhile, strong AustralianTrade Balane data also help the Aussie pair sustain the bounce from weekly lows.

USD/JPY hovers near the 160.00 intervention threshold on Mideast tensions

USD/JPY struggles to find acceptance above 160.00 and retreats from a one-month high in the Asian session on Thursday amid fears that authorities will step in again to prop up the Japanese Yen. Furthermore, a new Israel-Lebanon ceasefire caps the US Dollar and supports the currency pair. However, renewed US-Iran tensions keep the downside limited in the Greenback and the pair.

Gold rebounds from one-week low as Israel-Lebanon truce pressures safe-haven USD

Gold gains some positive traction on Thursday and climbs to the $4,475 area during the Asian session, reversing a major part of the previous day's slide to a one-week low. The Israel-Lebanon truce prompts some profit-taking around the US Dollar and supports the commodity.

Ethereum: Long-term holders' capitulation drives ETH below $1,800

Ethereum has fallen below $1,800 on Wednesday, the first time since May 2025 following accelerated spot selling pressure and distributions from long-term holders. The Age Consumed metric, which tracks the movement of previously idle tokens or long-term holders' coins, spiked over the past two days as prices declined, indicating increased selling activity among this cohort.

Kevin Warsh takes the Fed helm: What it means for the US Dollar

The Federal Reserve moves away from the highly predictable "forward guidance" model of the Jerome Powell era to a new “Kevin Warsh environment”, characterized by less communication, more policy surprises, and an increased focus on the Fed's complex balance sheet.

Recession on paper: What really moves the Canadian Loonie now?

Statistics Canada handed the headline writers a gift and the analysts a headache. Real GDP shrank 0.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, and with the fourth quarter of 2025 revised down to a 1.0% contraction, that is two negative quarters in a row, the textbook definition of a technical recession and Canada's first since the pandemic.