|

AUD/JPY remains well bid around mid-94.00s after RBA keeps interest rate steady at 4.35%

  • AUD/JPY attracts some buyers and builds on the overnight recovery from the YTD low.
  • The risk-on impulse undermines the safe-haven JPY and lends some support to the cross.
  • The RBA’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged does little to provide any impetus.

The AUD/JPY cross gains strong positive traction during the Asian session on Tuesday, albeit struggles to capitalize on the move and attracts some intraday sellers near the mid-95.00s. Spot prices, meanwhile, stick to modest intraday gains around the 94.50 level and move little after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced its decision.

As was widely anticipated, the Australian central bank decided to leave the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.35% at the end of the August policy meeting. Traders, however, await more cues about the RBA's next policy move amid stubbornly high inflation. Hence, the market focus will remain glued to the post-meeting press conference, where comments by the RBA Governor Michele Bullock will influence the Australian Dollar (AUD) and provide some impetus to the AUD/JPY cross. 

In the meantime, the risk-on impulse – as depicted by a relief rally across the global equity markets – is seen undermining the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY) and lending some support to the risk-sensitive Aussie. That said, a rise in Japan's real wages in June for the first time in more than two years bodes well with market expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will tighten monetary policy again. This, in turn, should help limit deeper JPY losses and cap gains for the AUD/JPY cross. 

Apart from this, worries about a slowdown in China – the world's second-largest economy – warrant caution before placing aggressive bullish bets around the China-proxy AUD. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the AUD/JPY cross has formed a near-term bottom. Nevertheless, spot prices, for now, seem to have snapped a five-day losing streak to the lowest level since March 2023, around the 90.15-90.10 region touched on Monday.

Economic Indicator

RBA Monetary Policy Statement

At the end of each of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) eight meetings, the RBA’s board releases a post-meeting statement explaining its policy decision. The statement may influence the volatility of the Australian Dollar (AUD) and determine a short-term positive or negative trend. A hawkish view is considered bullish for AUD, whereas a dovish view is considered bearish.

Read more.

Last release: Tue Aug 06, 2024 04:30

Frequency: Irregular

Actual: -

Consensus: -

Previous: -

Source: Reserve Bank of Australia

Author

Haresh Menghani

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

More from Haresh Menghani
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD drops to daily lows near 1.1630

EUR/USD now loses some traction and slips back to the area of daily lows around 1.1630 on the back of a mild bounce in the US Dollar. Fresh US data, including the September PCE inflation numbers and the latest read on December consumer sentiment, didn’t really move the needle, so the pair is still on course to finish the week with a respectable gain.

GBP/USD trims gains, recedes toward 1.3320

GBP/USD is struggling to keep its daily advance, coming under fresh pressure and retreating to the 1.3320 zone following a mild bullish attempt in the Greenback. Even though US consumer sentiment surprised to the upside, the US Dollar isn’t getting much love, as traders are far more interested in what the Fed will say next week.

Gold makes a U-turn, back to $4,200

Gold is now losing the grip and receding to the key $4,200 region per troy ounce following some signs of life in the Greenback and a marked bounce in US Treasury yields across the board. The positive outlook for the precious metal, however, remains underpinned by steady bets for extra easing by the Fed.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP pare gains despite increasing hopes of upcoming Fed rate cut

Bitcoin is steadying above $91,000 at the time of writing on Friday. Ethereum remains above $3,100, reflecting positive sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy meeting on December 10.

Week ahead – Rate cut or market shock? The Fed decides

Fed rate cut widely expected; dot plot and overall meeting rhetoric also matter. Risk appetite is supported by Fed rate cut expectations; cryptos show signs of life. RBA, BoC and SNB also meet; chances of surprises are relatively low.

Ripple faces persistent bear risks, shrugging off ETF inflows

Ripple is extending its decline for the second consecutive day, trading at $2.06 at the time of writing on Friday. Sentiment surrounding the cross-border remittance token continues to lag despite steady inflows into XRP spot ETFs.