Apple Stock News and Forecast: AAPL sheds 4% on iPhone production report

• Apple stock closed higher on Tuesday as markets gave up morning gains.
• AAPL looked to be forming a bottom.
• Initial reports from iPhone 14 orders looked strong.

UPDATE: AAPL stock has traded down 4% at the start of Wednesday's session on reports that Apple has told its suppliers to shelve plans to boost iPhone production. Shares are now at $145.71 at the time of writing. Markets are mixed at present. The NASDAQ is down 0.2%, while the Dow is up 0.3% and the S&P 500 is up 0.2%. The yield on 10-year treasuries briefly topped 4%, another warning sign for equity markets. US pending home sales for August, reported Wednesday morning, were down 24.2% YoY. A speech from Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jay Powell will begin at 10:15 AM EST and will likely direct markets for the rest of the session.

Apple (AAPL) stock looks to open lower on Wednesday as reports surface over production of the new iPhone 14. Hopes had been high that the new iPhone would provide a stimulus going into Q3 earnings, but now it appears that may not follow through. 

Apple stock news

We hear reports from Bloomberg this morning that Apple has told suppliers not to try and increase production of the iPhone 14. Now it looks like an additional 5 to 6 million units will not be pushed ahead, and instead flat production of 90 million units seems more likely. Earlier reports had been positive with talk of strong preorders. There were also reports that orders were skewed to higher cost, higher margin models that would have had a positive flow straight down to Apple's bottom line.

Now, this report puts that theory into question. As a reminder, we remain with our 12-month price target of $100 for Apple based on this very issue: lower margins and lower demand. Our key point from that deep dive was: "The tech giant faces supply chain headwinds, margin shrinkage and demand destruction in 2023." 

Also read: Apple Stock Deep Dive: AAPL price target at $100 on falling 2023 revenues

Apple stock forecast

Apple stock looks set to open substantially lower on Wednesday, currently indicating below $147. This level becomes key. $147.25 is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the June lows at $129.04 to the high in August at $176.15. Holding this level is key. A break opens the door to testing the June lows and would seem more likely on a break.

Holding could at least allow some calm, and investors would then likely wait for clarification from Apple's earnings on October 26. Earnings are historical, but it will be more important to hear from Apple how they are dealing with the surging US dollar and if they do indeed see a curtailing of demand. This move should also see the bearish divergence from the Relative Strength Index (RSI) come to an end. 

AAPL 1-day chart