Apple Stock Price and Forecast: Three reasons to be cautious on AAPL stock is still in play


  • Apple stock falls nearly 1% in early trading on Wednesday.
  • AAPL had made new highs last week but suffered on Monday.
  • Apple releases quarterly earnings next week on July 27.

Update: Early trading in Apple is proving to be cautious just as we titled this piece. The big tech leader dropping below $145 in the first half an hour of trading as traders turn increasingly cautious ahead of results next week. The MACD looks to have made a bearish crossover and AAPL stock is just sitting on the 9-day moving average currently. Choppy trading likely ahead of the results release. 

Apple shares roared back to life on Tuesday with a gain of over 2% and in the process retook some key technical levels. The move to record highs has been a nice steady uptrend breaking key technical levels identified at FXStreet. The move was triggered by relative underperformance in April and May and by a turnaround in the Nasdaq and big tech stocks. Other FAANG names had made new highs such as Facebook (FB) and Alphabet (GOOGL), but AAPL had lagged behind. Once the key $135 level was broken, the move was able to accelerate due to a lack of resistance and a lack of volume. 

Apple traded up to $150 and stalled. It is funny how often markets stall or target round numbers, and this time was no different. Markets are dominated by human emotions (despite the rise of algorithms), and humans like symmetry and, hence, round numbers. Apple traded up to $150 and then came crashing back. 

Apple key statistics

Market Cap $2.44 trillion
Enterprise Value $2.1 trillion
Price/Earnings (P/E) 32

Price/Book

38
Price/Sales 9
Gross Margin 40%
Net Margin 23%
EBITDA $100 billion
Average Wall Street rating and price target Buy $159

 

Apple stock forecast

Tuesday's call here at FXStreet – "Tuesday is likely to see a bounce after Monday's sharp fall, and a break of the 9-day moving average would be an opportunity to get long Apple stock again. Just use a stop or some form of risk management as this is not a strong risk-reward trade. Ahead of earnings next week the direction is likely to be choppy. Keep an eye also on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) as it appears to be about to crossover, which is a bearish signal."

This worked out well as Apple broke the 9-day moving average and continued higher. So now what, you ask? Earnings next week are still likely to see continued choppiness, so taking a longer-term view is more difficult. News has just hit the wires that Apple will launch a budget 5G phone in early 2022 and appears to be moving all models away from 4G. But until we have some clarity from results, we will take cautious positions if any. 

The trade yesterday worked well, but this was a short-term scalping opportunity. Now the picture is less clear.

1. A gap had been created from Friday to Monday that has now been filled.

2. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains poised to cross into bearish territory, so keep a close eye on this. 

3. Earnings next week mean the direction will be choppy until then.


Like this article? Help us with some feedback by answering this survey:

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Feed news

Latest Forex News


Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD: Portrays bearish set-up on D1 below 1.1900

EUR/USD edges lower around 1.1870 amid a quiet start to the week’s Asian session trading on Monday. The major currency pair snapped a four-day uptrend on Friday, posting the bearish spinning top candlestick.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD: The fundamental background backs another leg higher

The GBP/USD pair settled at 1.3900, its best weekly close since early May. The pair eased on Friday as month-end flows helped the greenback to recover some of the ground lost post-Fed’s dovish statement. Cable could fall once below 1.3865, buyers could surge on approaches to 1.3800.

GBP/USD News

Gold bulls hesitate as focus shift to NFP

After closing the previous week in the negative territory, gold stayed on the back foot on Monday and dropped below $1,800. However, the subdued market action ahead of key macroeconomic events allowed the precious metal to stay in a consolidation phase on Tuesday.

Gold News

Shiba gets listed on eToro as demand for SHIB skyrockets

Leading investment platform eToro has been adding cryptocurrency assets on popular demand from users. The Dogecoin killer recently amassed 600,000 holders despite range-bound price action. 

Read more

Challenging week ahead

Three macro considerations are shaping the investment climate: the evolution of the virus and the response, the timeframe of the Fed's tapering, and China's broad regulatory crackdown. Beijing's new policy initiatives are broader and quicker than generally anticipated.

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures