AAPL Stock Forecast: Apple Inc shares test the 200 day moving average as employment report awaited

AAPL shares have another look at the 200-day moving average.
Apple has not broken the key level since March 2020.
Tech shares looking heavy, but Friday's jobs report the key.

Apple shares took a dirt nap on Friday like most other tech names as the Nasdaq dropped just over 1%. Investors are growing increasingly worried over inflation as Friday's employment report nears. Thursday's strong ADP report has once again got investors nervous despite the 10-year yield remaining relatively subdued. The stock market is at increasingly stretched levels though and the Fed has hinted at hinting about thinking about tapering.

Apple stock forecast

AAPL shares turned bearish on Monday, breaking out of the formative uptrend channel that had been in place since the last test of the 200-day moving average on May 12. Short-term bearishness was confirmed by the break of the 9 and 21-day moving averages. Now the tactic is how to play the stock from here. Friday's jobs report will set the tone for the broader market and give us some clues as to how Apple will react. If things start to get a bit ugly, AAPL should stage a clean break of the 200-day moving average and bring the stock into the consolidation zone identified. Given the time and volume here, it could be a good place to instigate a long position, as ever using a stop or careful risk management strategy. Breaking the 200-day is a strong bearish move, and doing so should make a new lower low below the $122 low from May 12. A series of lower highs and lows is obviously a bearish trend, so do not be surprised to see AAPL shares trade toward the lower end of the consolidation zone before stabilizing. The March low of $116 should hold on the first test unless something dramatic unfolds. AAPL may not even get to test the level, instead stabilizing around $120. A hold of the 200-day moving average and the first target will be to take back the 9-day moving average and break the $127.87 recent high. This would reintroduce the bullish trend.

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