Sergey Kamenshikov, Ph.D.
IFC Markets
Summary
Charles Dow postulates assume that a price of a trading instrument reflects all fundamental data instantly. However market efficiency may be preserved partially due to inertial properties. In this case a trader has to take into account related markets when opening a position: network effect arises. Below we represent a plain FX H4 trading system based on two currency indexes and classic ParabolicSAR indicator. After indexes are incorporated in a single platform a trader obtains an opportunity to analyze EUR/USD currency pair, EURi and vs USDi simultaneously at one screen and one time frame. A conservative trading idea is simple: EUR/USD long (short) position should be opened if EURi and vsUSDi give bullish (bearish) signals simultaneously. If inconsistency occurs and signals of two indexes differ then the opened position should be closed immediately. This strong signal shows us inefficient market stages when all players move as a whole. Our hypothesis is that this property may be used for effective trend following.Latest Live Videos
Editors’ Picks
Gold extends its march north to $4,750
Gold builds on Monday's gains and hits at a new record high around $4,750 per troy ounce on Tuesday. Escalating geopolitical tensions and growing fears of deepening trade conflicts, alongside the broad-based selling pressure surrounding the US Dollar continue to fuel the precious metal’s rally.
GBP/USD targets 1.3500 amid extra USD selling
GBP/USD advances for the second day in a row, coming closer to 1.3500 the figure, or multi-day highs, on the back of the intense sell-off in the Greenback. Cable, in the meantime, seems to ignore the mixed results from the UK labour market, which appear to reinforce the case for extra BoE easing.
EUR/USD remains bid above 1.1700
EUR/USD adds to Monday’s optimism and climbs to fresh 2026 tops near 1.1760 on turnaround Tuesday. The “Sell America” trade continues to weigh on the US Dollar as investors continue to assess developments around the US and Greenland.
Bitcoin extends decline as tensions around Greenland mount
Bitcoin price extends losses, trading below $91,000 at the time of writing on Tuesday amid escalating geopolitical tensions over Greenland. Investors are moving toward safe-haven assets, with Gold hitting fresh all-time highs, while BTC continues to nosedive.
Greenland tariffs: What happened, and how to position for the new Europe risk premium
Over the weekend, President Trump threatened a new round of tariffs on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and the UK, with reporting flagging 10% from February 1 and a possible step-up later.
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, January 20:
Safe-haven flows continue to dominate the action in financial markets on Tuesday as geopolitical tensions remain high. ZEW sentiment data from Germany will be published during the European trading hours, while investors will pay close attention to fresh developments surrounding the EU-US tensions over Greenland.