Buy the rumour Sell OPEC

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Summary

The Day So Far…

Watching the journalists jostling for position at the OPEC meeting is always a sight to behold and why OPEC insist on publishing a tentative schedule is beyond me. None the less, as per usual there was no need to wait for the official closing speech this afternoon and just after 9am the ‘cat was let out the bag’ and OPEC confirmed a 9-month extension to the current production cuts. The reaction was somewhat inevitable and after squeezing up to $52/bbl level this morning, marking a near 18% gain since the 5th May, the confirmation of the deal acted as a moment to book profits on those long positions prompting a sharp drop in prices exacerbated by momentum based algo’s jumping on the activity. Once the OPEC circus leaves town my bias still sides with oil feeling the weight of the dual force of increasing US output and OPEC compliance issues in the medium-term and when the US come into market it will be interesting to see how they interpret the decision with the $50 handle a key level on the downside.