EUR/USD Forecast and News


EUR/USD climbs as sentiment pushes Greenback lower

EUR/USD caught a bid on Thursday, climbing seven-tenths of one percent and vaulting back over the 1.0400 handle. A general weakening in the Greenback bolstered Fiber flows off the back of not-as-bad-as-expected US Producer Price Index inflation figures. 

Latest EUR News


EUR/USD Technical Overview

EUR/USD is treading a fine line, with 1.0209—the weekly low from February 3—acting as a key support level. A decisive break below could pave the way for a deeper slide toward 1.0176, the lowest level seen so far this year.

On the upside, resistance kicks in at 1.0532 (the 2025 high from January 27), followed by 1.0629 (December’s peak) and the 200-day Simple Moving Average at 1.0749.

Technical indicators offer mixed signals—while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 55, suggesting improving momentum, the Average Directional Index (ADX) approaching 15 hints that the current trend may be losing steam.


Fundamental Overview

EUR/USD extended its recovery on Thursday, pushing well above the 1.0400 mark as the US Dollar (USD) took a sharp hit.

In fact, the US Dollar Index (DXY) retreated markedly amid lower US yields and despite growing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its restrictive stance for longer, especially after hotter-than-expected US Producer Prices in January.

The sharp uptick in the pair unfolded against a backdrop of mixed market signals. A broad correction in US yields, renewed trade tensions, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious tone in his recent testimonies all added layers of complexity to the narrative. 

Tariffs continue to inject volatility into markets

While a planned 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports has been delayed, a 10% duty on Chinese goods remains in place, keeping investors on edge. 

Initially, these trade uncertainties led traders to scale back their bullish bets on the US Dollar, creating some temporary softness. However, sentiment quickly shifted after Trump announced a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium imports and hinted at further retaliatory tariffs. 

Despite the choppy price action in recent sessions, these protectionist moves could ultimately strengthen the Greenback in the near future—potentially putting EUR/USD under renewed downside pressure.

Central banks step into the limelight 

The Federal Reserve recently held interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%, maintaining a cautious stance amid solid economic growth, persistent inflation, and a strong labour market. During his semiannual testimonies, Chief Powell emphasised the importance of patience, noting that with unemployment around 4% and inflation still elevated at 4%, premature rate cuts could undermine efforts to control inflation. He reiterated that any future rate reductions would depend on inflation cooling further and the labour market remaining resilient.

The European Central Bank (ECB) recently delivered a widely expected 25-basis-point rate cut in an effort to combat sluggish growth while still contending with inflation that remains above target. ECB President Christine Lagarde highlighted that future rate decisions will be guided by incoming economic data, firmly dismissing the possibility of more aggressive 50-basis-point cuts for now. Despite ongoing trade tensions, she remained optimistic about bringing inflation under control by 2025, signalling a cautious but steady approach to monetary policy in the months ahead. 

Trade war: Potential winners and losers

If tariffs drive US inflation higher, the Federal Reserve may be forced into a more hawkish stance, potentially giving the US Dollar another leg up.

Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) could find itself under increasing pressure if trade tensions spill over into the European Union (EU), raising the risk of EUR/USD edging closer to parity sooner than expected. With markets closely watching policy shifts and economic fallout, currency traders remain on high alert for any signals that could tilt the balance further. 

Where does the Euro go next? 

Looking ahead, EUR/USD is walking a tightrope, caught between trade tensions, diverging monetary policies at the Fed and ECB, and sluggish eurozone growth—especially in Germany. These factors create an unpredictable landscape where sentiment can shift in an instant.

While short-term spikes in the pair are possible, the bigger picture remains hazy until global uncertainties ease. With economic data and trade developments capable of swaying momentum at a moment’s notice, traders and investors will need to stay nimble and ready to react. 



SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST

Interested in weekly EUR/USD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Euro-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:

EUR/USD: US trade war and Powell’s testimony in the eye of the storm

EUR/USD: US trade war and Powell’s testimony in the eye of the storm Premium

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is due to testify before Congress in the upcoming days. Financial markets danced to the rhythm of sentiment as President Trump started a trade war.

Read full analysis

EUR/USD Big Picture

EUR/USD Bullish Themes

EUR/USD Bearish Themes

FXS Signals

Latest EUR Analysis


Latest EUR Analysis

Editors' picks

EUR/USD climbs as sentiment pushes Greenback lower

EUR/USD climbs as sentiment pushes Greenback lower

EUR/USD caught a bid on Thursday, climbing seven-tenths of one percent and vaulting back over the 1.0400 handle. A general weakening in the Greenback bolstered Fiber flows off the back of not-as-bad-as-expected US Producer Price Index inflation figures. 

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD advances past 1.2500, new multi-day peaks

GBP/USD advances past 1.2500, new multi-day peaks

GBP/USD is gaining further upside momentum, breaking past the key 1.2500 level to reach new multi-day highs in response to increased selling pressure on the Greenback.

GBP/USD News
USD/JPY tumbles from weekly high of 154.80 as Japanese Yen outperforms on safe-haven bid

USD/JPY tumbles from weekly high of 154.80 as Japanese Yen outperforms on safe-haven bid

USD/JPY dives to near 153.40 amid significant strength in the Japanese Yen. Investors remain on their toes as US Trump reiterates reciprocal tariff threats. The Fed stated that a restrictive policy stance is favorable if progress in the disinflation trend stalls.

USD/JPY News
Gold price advances amid uncertainty over US tariff threats

Gold price advances amid uncertainty over US tariff threats

Gold climbed during the North American session on Thursday following the release of the Producer Price Index, which was mildly higher than expected. United States President Donald Trump's threats of tariffs increased the appeal of the yellow metal, which trades around $2,925.

Gold News
WTI recovers above $71.00 as tariff fears ease

WTI recovers above $71.00 as tariff fears ease

West Texas Intermediate, the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $71.30 during the early Asian session on Friday. The WTI price trades with mild gains as US tariff announcements by US President Donald Trump were delayed until at least April. 

Oil News

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures


EUR/USD Yearly forecast

How could EUR/USD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2025 EUR/USD forecast!

EUR/USD FORECAST 2025

In the EURUSD 2025 Forecast, our analyst, Valeria Bednarik, says the EUR/USD pair is ending a third consecutive month in the red and technical readings in the monthly chart suggest 2025 will be a tough year for the Euro. The macroeconomic picture favors the USD over the EUR, as with even inflationary pressures, the focus will be on economic developments. Read more details about the forecast.

The pair traded as low as 1.0334 and as high as 1.1214 throughout 2024, with currencies moving on sentiment.

MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2025 FOR EUR/USD

Generally speaking, a Republican victory is seen as positive for financial markets. Wall Street rallied, with the three major indexes hitting record levels amid Trump’s pledge to cut taxes and impose tariffs on foreign goods and services. Tariffs, if implemented, could mean higher prices for Americans in a wide spectrum of goods and services. Worth adding that his tariffs policy could also spread into other major economies.

The Fed signaled a cautious stance on rate cuts in 2025, projecting only two reductions as inflation remains above target and economic growth stays solid.


Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD

The Euro US Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:

The European Central Bank (ECB)

The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone and maintain price stability, so that the euro’s purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. The ECB aims to ensure that the year-on-year increase in consumer prices is less than, but close to 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is one of controlling the money supply. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde is the President of this organism. 

The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)

On the other hand we found The Federal Reserve System (Fed) wich is the central banking system of the United States. Fed has two main targets: to keep unemployment rate to their lowest possible levels and inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors, partially presidentially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions. Also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth.


Christine Lagarde

Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense and became President of the European Central Bank in November 1st 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007–2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005–2007).

Jerome Powell

Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.

ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS

FED NEWS & ANALYSIS

About EUR/USD

The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EUR/USD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.

Normally, it is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online. If there is important U.S. data we can expect quiet markets just ahead of the number. U.S. economic news have the ability to either reinforce an existing trend or reverse it depending on by how much it missed or beat expectations with the EUR/USD news. By 5:00 GMT liquidity leaves the market once again as European traders close out positions and head home.

Related pairs

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', reffering to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.

The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a widely observed and traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. After the result of the Brexit referendum, where the majority of the British voted to abandon the European Union, GBP/USD has been suffering some turbulence in the Forex market as a consequence of the associated risks of leaving the single market.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', the most important pairs in the world. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate, normally used in carry trades, that's why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.

Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when reffered to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is dued to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.