EURUSD Forecast and News
EUR/USD rebounds from multi-week lows, trades above 1.0750
EUR/USD came under heavy bearish pressure and declined to its weakest level in three weeks below 1.0750 on Friday after the stronger-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls data. Week-end flows, however, helped the pair erase its daily losses.
Latest EUR News
Technical Overview
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart edged higher but remained below 50, pointing to a lack of recovery momentum in EUR/USD. The pair needs to make a decisive move above 1.0820 (200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the latest uptrend) and start using that level as support to extend its recovery toward 1.0860 (static level, 50-period SMA on the 4-hour chart) and 1.0900 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement, 100-period SMA).
On the downside, 1.0760 (Fibonacci 50% retracement, 200-period SMA) aligns as important support before 1.0700 (psychological level, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement).
Fundamental Overview
EUR/USD benefited from broad-based US Dollar (USD) weakness on Thursday and registered daily gains for the first time since November 28. Early Friday, the pair holds steady slightly below 1.0800 as market participants refrain from taking large positions ahead of the US November jobs report.
The positive shift seen in risk mood made it difficult for the USD to find demand in the second half of the day on Thursday and allowed EUR/USD to inch higher.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US are forecast to rise by 180,000 in November. A reading above 200,000 could force investors to reassess the possible timing of the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy shift and provide a boost to the USD with the initial reaction. On the other hand, a disappointing print below 150,000 could make it difficult for the USD to stay resilient against its rivals ahead of the weekend.
Meanwhile, annual wage inflation is expected to edge lower to 4% from 4.1% in October and the Unemployment Rate is seen staying unchanged at 3.9%.
The US economic docket will also feature the University of Michigan's preliminary Consumer Sentiment Survey for December. Nevertheless, investors are likely to ignore this report while assessing the details of the labor market data.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly EURUSD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the euro-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
EUR/USD: US Dollar turns north as central banks’ decisions loom Premium
The US Dollar turned north this past week, partially losing its pace on Thursday, as speculative interest took a break ahead of the United States (US) employment figures scheduled for Friday. On the contrary, the Euro remained on the back foot as the economic future remains uncertain. As a result, EUR/USD retreated below the 1.0800 mark, edging sharply lower for a second consecutive week.
Big Picture
EUR/USD Bullish Themes
EUR/USD Bearish Themes
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Editors' picks
EUR/USD rebounds from multi-week lows, trades above 1.0750
EUR/USD came under heavy bearish pressure and declined to its weakest level in three weeks below 1.0750 on Friday after the stronger-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls data. Week-end flows, however, helped the pair erase its daily losses.
GBP/USD remains on track to snap three-week winning streak
GBP/USD recovered toward 1.2550 after coming in within a touching distance of 1.2500 in the second half of the day after Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 199,000 for November. Despite the recent rebound, the pair remains on track to snap a three-week winning streak.
USD/JPY extends recovery above 144.00, US NFP in focus
USD/JPY is extending recovery above 144.00 in Friday's European trading. The pair is finding reprieve from downbeat Japan's Q3 GDP data, which checked the Yen's towering rally against the US Dollar amid hints of BoJ's policy pivot. US NFP awaited.
Gold retreats below $2,020 as US yields push higher
Gold broke below its daily range and declined toward $2,010 with the immediate reaction to the upbeat US November jobs report. Although XAU/USD managed to recover toward $2,020, rising US Treasury bond yields triggered another leg lower.
WTI recovers above $70.00 on Russia-Saudi joint statement on output cuts
WTI prices rebound to $70.85 after hitting the the six-month lows. Saudi Arabia and Russia called on all OPEC+ members to join an agreement on production cuts for the stability of global oil markets. China’s Crude oil Imports declined 9% year on year in November. Oil traders await the US Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday.
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EURUSD Yearly forecast
How could EURUSD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2023 EURUSD forecast!
EURUSD FORECAST 2023
In the EURUSD 2023 Forecast, our analyst, Valeria Bednarik, expects the EUR/USD long-term corrective advance will likely continue in the first quarter of 2023. By the end of the year 2022, the average outlook for the pair was 1.0538. Read more details about the forecast.
From Jan 2022 to Dec 2022, the maximum level for the EURUSD (Euro US Dollar) was 1.1455 (on 06/02/22), and the minimum, 0.9589 (on 27/09/22).
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2023 FOR EURUSD
Heading into 2023, there is uncertainty over central banks succeeding in guiding economies into a soft landing. That is, controlling inflation without triggering recessions. As said, price pressures are still too high, with inflation running over three times faster than tolerable. The European energy crisis could easily turn into a global one next winter, affecting both Euro and US Dollar. The worldwide economic growth is expected to keep slowing, which could also be a decisive key driver for the pair during the 2023.
Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD
The Euro US Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone and maintain price stability, so that the euro’s purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. The ECB aims to ensure that the year-on-year increase in consumer prices is less than, but close to 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is one of controlling the money supply. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde is the President of this organism.
ECB Official Website, on Twitter and YouTube
The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
On the other
FED Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
Christine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense and became President of the European Central Bank in November 1st 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007–2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005–2007).
Lagarde on ECB'S Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About EURUSD
The EURUSD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EURUSD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
Normally, it is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online. If there is important U.S. data we can expect quiet markets just ahead of the number. U.S. economic news have the ability to either reinforce an existing trend or reverse it depending on by how much it missed or beat expectations with the EURUSD news. By 5:00 GMT liquidity leaves the market once again as European traders close out positions and head home.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', reffering to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.
The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a widely observed and traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. After the result of the Brexit referendum, where the majority of the British voted to abandon the European Union, GBP/USD has been suffering some turbulence in the Forex market as a consequence of the associated risks of leaving the single market.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', the most important pairs in the world. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate, normally used in carry trades, that's why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.
Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when reffered to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is dued to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.