EURUSD Forecast and News


EUR/USD slides to multi-month lows below 1.0650

EUR/USD stays under heavy bearish pressure and trades at its lowest level since November below 1.0650. Divergent ECB-Fed policy outlooks and the risk-averse market atmosphere keep the US Dollar strongly bid and weigh on the pair.

Latest EUR News


Technical Overview

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart dropped to 20, highlighting oversold conditions in the near term. 

1.0700 (static level, former 2024-low support) aligns as first resistance for EUR/USD. In case the pair stabilizes above that level, 1.0730 (static level) and 1.0770 (static level) could be seen as next hurdles.

On the downside, 1.0660 (static level from November) could be seen as next support before 1.0600 (psychological level) and 1.0550 (static level from October).


Fundamental Overview

EUR/USD came under renewed bearish pressure and dropped to its lowest level since November below 1.0700. Although the pair's technical outlook points to oversold conditions, it might be risky to bet on a Euro rebound amid diverging European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policies.

The ECB left key rates unchanged as expected following the April policy meeting. ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated the data-dependent approach to policy and refrained from confirming a rate cut in June. Nevertheless, citing three sources, Reuters reported that ECB policymakers were still expecting a rate cut in June.

Meanwhile, Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras said that he supports the divergence from the Fed's policies and called for four ECB rate cuts in 2024. Additionally, ECB policymaker Madis Muller noted that there were signs of the economy strengthening and added that slower inflation had raised the chances of a reduction in key rates in June.

On the other hand, market participants see a nearly 80% probability that the Fed interest rate will remain unchanged at 5.25%-5.5% after the June policy meeting. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said on Thursday that the latest inflation data did not increase his confidence that disinflation is spreading in the economy.



SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST

Interested in weekly EURUSD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the euro-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:

EUR/USD: The return of King Dollar Premium

EUR/USD: The return of King Dollar

The US Dollar (USD) soared this week, sending EUR/USD to its lowest since November. Hotter-than-anticipated inflation in the United States (US) was the main reason behind the renewed strength of the USD, although it was not the only one.

Read full analysis

Big Picture

EUR/USD Bullish Themes

EUR/USD Bearish Themes

Top Broker


FXS Signals

Latest EUR Analysis


Latest EUR Analysis

Editors' picks

EUR/USD slides to multi-month lows below 1.0650

EUR/USD slides to multi-month lows below 1.0650

EUR/USD stays under heavy bearish pressure and trades at its lowest level since November below 1.0650. Divergent ECB-Fed policy outlooks and the risk-averse market atmosphere keep the US Dollar strongly bid and weigh on the pair.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD extends decline below 1.2450 on sustained USD strength

GBP/USD extends decline below 1.2450 on sustained USD strength

GBP/USD extends losses and trades at fresh multi-month lows below 1.2450 even after the January month UK GDP was revised higher to 0.3%. The negative shift seen in risk mood fuels another leg higher in the USD and drags the pair lower.

GBP/USD News

Japanese Yen refreshes 34-year low against USD amid divergent BoJ-Fed policy expectations

Japanese Yen refreshes 34-year low against USD amid divergent BoJ-Fed policy expectations

The Japanese Yen drops to a fresh multi-decade low amid the divergent Fed-BoJ policy expectations. Intervention fears might hold back the JPY bears from placing fresh bets and cap the USD/JPY pair. Spot prices remain on track to register strong gains and end in the green for the fifth successive week.

USD/JPY News

Gold advances to new historic high above $2,400

Gold advances to new historic high above $2,400

Gold gathers bullish momentum ahead of the weekend and trades at a new record high above $2,400. Escalating geopolitical tensions help XAU/USD continue to push up despite the broad-based US Dollar strength.

Gold News

Oil rallies over 2% with Middle East tensions nearing war status

Oil rallies over 2% with Middle East tensions nearing war status

WTI trades back above $86 after whipsawing around it this week. Oil price rises near 1% despite EIA calls for a negative outlook on Oil demand. The US Dollar Index surges close to 106.00 and sets forth a fresh five-month high.

Oil News

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures


EURUSD Yearly forecast

How could EURUSD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2024 EURUSD forecast!

EURUSD FORECAST 2024

In the EURUSD 2024 Forecast, our analyst, Valeria Bednarik, anticipates gains for the next couple of months. The Eurozone economy would need to show steady signs of recovery to prevent EUR/USD from collapsing below 1.0390 in the year's second half. Read more details about the forecast.

The pair traded as low as 1.0447 and as high as 1.1275 throughout 2023, with currencies moving on sentiment.

MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2024 FOR EURUSD

There is a note of color that would stand out in the upcoming months: the US 2024 presidential election that will take place on November 5. The contest nomination will start as soon as January and run until June. The pinch of drama comes from Donald Trump’s desire to represent Republicans once again. A potential second government of Donald Trump could mean higher inflationary pressures as Trump could reintroduce tariffs on imports and push against the agreements between China and the Biden administration.


Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD

The Euro US Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:

The European Central Bank (ECB)

The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone and maintain price stability, so that the euro’s purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. The ECB aims to ensure that the year-on-year increase in consumer prices is less than, but close to 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is one of controlling the money supply. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde is the President of this organism. 

The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)

On the other hand we found The Federal Reserve System (Fed) wich is the central banking system of the United States. Fed has two main targets: to keep unemployment rate to their lowest possible levels and inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors, partially presidentially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions. Also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth.


Christine Lagarde

Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense and became President of the European Central Bank in November 1st 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007–2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005–2007).

Jerome Powell

Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.

ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS

FED NEWS & ANALYSIS

About EURUSD

The EURUSD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EURUSD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.

Normally, it is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online. If there is important U.S. data we can expect quiet markets just ahead of the number. U.S. economic news have the ability to either reinforce an existing trend or reverse it depending on by how much it missed or beat expectations with the EURUSD news. By 5:00 GMT liquidity leaves the market once again as European traders close out positions and head home.

Related pairs

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', reffering to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.

The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a widely observed and traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. After the result of the Brexit referendum, where the majority of the British voted to abandon the European Union, GBP/USD has been suffering some turbulence in the Forex market as a consequence of the associated risks of leaving the single market.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', the most important pairs in the world. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate, normally used in carry trades, that's why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.

Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when reffered to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is dued to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.