EUR/USD Forecast and News
EUR/USD deflates to three-day lows around 1.1130
The euro remains under heavy pressure on Friday, with EUR/USD retreating toward the 1.1130 level to hit new three-day troughs. Despite a weaker reading in the U-Mich index in May, the US Dollar found support as inflation expectations ticked higher.
Latest EUR News
EUR/USD Technical Overview
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator stays near 50, highlighting a lack of directional momentum in the near term.
The Fibonacci 50% retracement level of the latest uptrend aligns as the first support level at 1.1170. In case EUR/USD falls below this level and starts using it as resistance, technical sellers could show interest. In this scenario, 1.1080 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) and 1.1000 (round level, static level) could be seen as next support levels.
On the upside, resistances are located at 1.1260-1.1270 (200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), Fibonacci 38.2% retracement), 1.1290-1.1300 (100-period SMA, static level) and 1.1380 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement).
Fundamental Overview
The US Dollar (USD) failed to gather strength following the mixed macroeconomic data releases and allowed EUR/USD to hold its ground on Thursday.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that annual producer inflation, as measured by the change in the Producer Price Index, softened to 2.4% in April from 2.7% in March. Other data from the US showed that Retail Sales increased 0.1% on a monthly basis in April, while the weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in at 229,000, matching the previous week's reading and the market expectation.
The US economic calendar will feature Housing Starts and Building Permits data for April on Friday. More importantly, the University of Michigan (UoM) will publish the preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index data for May.
The UoM Consumer Sentiment Index declined for six consecutive months. If the data points to a further deterioration in consumer confidence, the USD could have a hard time finding demand heading into the weekend. On the other hand, a noticeable improvement could have the opposite impact on the currency's valuation.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly EUR/USD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Euro-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
EUR/USD: Optimism comes to the US Dollar rescue Premium
The EUR/USD pair gapped lower at the weekly opening and fell towards 1.1064 on Monday, as the US Dollar (USD) surged on the back of headlines indicating a de-escalation of trade tensions between the United States (US) and China.
Latest EUR Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD deflates to three-day lows around 1.1130
The euro remains under heavy pressure on Friday, with EUR/USD retreating toward the 1.1130 level to hit new three-day troughs. Despite a weaker reading in the U-Mich index in May, the US Dollar found support as inflation expectations ticked higher.
GBP/USD slips back to 1.3250 on USD-buying
GBP/USD recedes to the mid-1.3200s on Friday session, as the Greenback regains ground against the broadeer risk-linked universe. Supporting the upside in the US Dollar comes a rise in US consumer inflation expectations, according to the latest data from the U-Mich survey.
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Finds temporary support near 145.00
USD/JPY gains temporary ground near 145.00 as the US Dollar recoups initial gains. The Japanese economy contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter of the year. Investors await the flash US Michigan survey data for May.
Gold looks depressed below $3,200
Gold reversed course on Friday, falling sharply below the $3,200 mark after Thursday’s strong rally. The retreat came as a resurgent US Dollar and easing geopolitical tensions weighed on demand for the safe-haven metal. Furthermore, XAU/USD remained under pressure and is on track to log its biggest weekly loss of the year.
WTI falls to near $61.00, weekly gains capped by global oversupply concerns
West Texas Intermediate Oil price continues its losing streak for the third successive session, trading around 61.10 per barrel during the early European hours on Friday. However, crude Oil prices are set for a modest weekly gain, supported by renewed optimism over United States-China trade relations, which outweighed ongoing concerns about global oversupply.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
EUR/USD Yearly forecast
How could EUR/USD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2025 EUR/USD forecast!
EUR/USD FORECAST 2025
In the EUR/USD 2025 Forecast , FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik suggests that the macroeconomic landscape favors the US Dollar (USD) over the Euro (EUR), with a potential return to parity between the currencies.
While Donald Trump’s upcoming presidency may introduce higher inflation-related risks for the United States (US), the US economy demonstrated the strongest pandemic recovery among G7 nations, as measured by GDP, starting under Trump’s previous administration and following under Joe Biden.
From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair faces a bearish outlook for 2025, with technical indicators suggesting further declines after breaking below key moving averages and encountering strong resistance near 1.1200. The pair could test the 1.0330 zone, with the potential for parity if selling pressure persists. While a bearish trend is most likely, a sudden EU economic recovery or US weakness could push the pair toward 1.0600, with a possible rally to 1.1000 later in the year, though not before mid-2025.
MOST INFLUENTIAL FACTORS IN 2025 FOR EUR/USD
The year will be politically marked by Trump’s return to the White House. A Republican government is seen as positive for financial markets, but Trump’s pledge to cut taxes and impose tariffs on foreign goods and services may introduce uncertainty to both the political and economic landscape.
In the Eurozone, attention will focus on political turmoil in Germany and France, the two largest economies in the bloc. Germany is set to hold snap elections following a no-confidence vote against Chancellor Olaf Scholz in the Bundestag.
Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD
The European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone. With its beginnings in Germany in 1998, the ECB’s mandate is to maintain price stability in the Eurozone, so that the Euro’s (EUR) purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. As an entity independent of individual European Union countries and institutions, the ECB targets a year-on-year increase in consumer prices of 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is controlling the money supply. This involves, for instance, setting interest rates throughout the Eurozone. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde has been the President of the ECB since November 1, 2019. Her speeches, statements and comments are an important source of volatility, especially for the Euro and the currencies traded against the European currency.
ECB official website , on X and YouTubeThe Federal Reserve (Fed)
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States (US) and it has two main targets: to maintain the unemployment rate at its lowest possible levels and to keep inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors and the partially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes eight scheduled meetings in a year to review economic and financial conditions. It also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The FOMC Minutes, which are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve weeks after the latest meeting, are a guide to the future US interest-rate policy.
Fed official website , on X and FacebookChristine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Lagarde, who graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense, became President of the European Central Bank (ECB) on November 1, 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007-2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005-2007).
Lagarde on ECB's Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. He was sworn in on May 23, 2022, for a second term as Chairman ending May 15, 2026. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a term used t o describe the most important currency pairs in the world. This group also includes GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD , USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD . The popularity of the Euro Dollar pair stems from its representation of two of the world’s largest economies: the Eurozone and the United States.
The EUR/USD is one of the most widely traded currency pairs in the Forex market, where the Euro serves as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. It accounts for more than half of the total trading volume in the Forex market, making gaps almost inexistent, let alone sudden reversals caused by breakaway gaps.
The EUR/USD is usually quiet during the Asian session, as economic data influencing the pair is usually released during the European or US sessions. Activity increases as European traders begin their day, leading to heightened trading volume. This activity slows around midday during the European lunch break but picks up again when US markets come online.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', referring to the most important and widely traded pairs in the world. The pair is also known as “the Cable”, a term originating in the mid-19th century that refers to the first transatlantic telegraph connecting Great Britain and the United States. As a closely watched and widely traded currency pair, it features the British Pound as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. For that reason, macroeconomic data from both the United States and the United Kingdom significantly impacts its price. One notable event that affected the volatility of the pair was Brexit.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', a group of the most important currency pairs in the world. The Japanese Yen, known for its low interest rate, is frequently used in carry trades, making it one of the most traded currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY pair, the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen serves as the counter currency.
Trading USD/JPY is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although the latter nickname is more frequently associated with the GBP/JPY pair. USD/JPY usually has a positive correlation with other pairs like USD/CHF and USD/CAD, as all three use the US Dollar as the base currency. The value of the pair is often influenced by interest-rate differentials between the two central banks: the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).