EUR/USD Forecast and News
EUR/USD faces next resistance near 1.1930
EUR/USD has surrendered its earlier intraday advance on Thursday and is now hovering uncomfortably around the 1.1860 region amid modest gains in the US Dolla. Moving forward, markets are exoected to closely follow Friday’s release of US CPI data.
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EUR/USD Technical Overview
In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1859. The 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) rises above the 100- and 200-day SMAs, underscoring a bullish alignment. Price holds above these trend markers, with the 55-day SMA at 1.1744 offering initial dynamic support. The RSI stands at 55, above the midline, supporting upward momentum.
The slower 100- and 200-day SMAs slope higher at 1.1683 and 1.1632, reinforcing the broader uptrend and marking secondary support layers. The Average Directional Index at 31 indicates firm trend strength. Holding above the rising averages would keep the bias pointed higher, whereas a pullback through 1.1683 could expose the 1.1632 area.
Bottom line
For now, EUR/USD is being driven far more by the US narrative than by developments in the euro area.
With the Fed’s 2026 rate path still lacking clarity and the euro area yet to deliver a convincing cyclical rebound, upside progress is likely to remain gradual rather than morphing into a clean and sustained breakout.
Fundamental Overview
EUR/USD’s recent rebound appears to have stalled just above the 1.1900 mark, where some light resistance has capped the upside for now. Even so, the broader setup still leans constructive, and unless sentiment shifts materially, the 1.2000 handle remains the next natural upside target.
That said, EUR/USD is trading slightly on the back foot on Thursday, extending its pullback for a third consecutive session and finding some tentative support around the 1.1850 area.
The move lower comes as the US Dollar (USD) picks up humble traction, helped along by fresh headlines surrounding US-Iran tensions and speculation that Russia could potentially return to the US Dollar system. In that context, the US Dollar Index (DXY) briefly pushed above the 97.00 level before giving back part of the move, reflecting a market that is firm but not fully convinced.
Fed on hold, confidence up, but still in no rush
The Federal Reserve (Fed) left the Fed Funds Target Range (FFTR) unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% at its January 28 meeting, exactly as markets expected.
The tone, however, felt a touch more constructive. Indeed, policymakers sounded slightly more confident about growth, while still acknowledging that inflation remains somewhat elevated. Importantly, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) no longer sees employment risks as deteriorating. Furthermore, the decision passed 10 to 2, with two dissenters favouring a 25 basis points cut.
In his press conference, Chair Jerome Powell made it clear that the current stance is seen as appropriate. That said, policy will continue to be decided meeting by meeting, with no preset path. In addition, recent inflation overshoots were largely attributed to tariff effects, while services disinflation is still viewed as progressing. Importantly, no one on the Committee is treating a rate hike as the base case.
European Central Bank steady, sticking to the script
The European Central Bank (ECB) also stayed on hold, leaving its three key rates unchanged in a unanimous and widely expected decision.
The message was calm and consistent. On that, the medium-term outlook still points to inflation returning to the 2% objective, and recent data have not materially altered that view. Additionally, wage indicators are showing signs of stabilisation, although services prices and pay dynamics remain under close scrutiny. The central bank continues to anticipate a modest dip in inflation in 2026, reinforcing the idea that it can afford to wait.
President Christine Lagarde described risks as broadly balanced and reiterated that policy remains data dependent and agile when she faced the usual Q&A from the media. The Governing Council acknowledged recent foreign exchange (FX) moves, judged them to be within historical norms, and stressed again that there is no exchange rate target. In short: policy is not on autopilot, but it is not in a hurry either.
Positioning: still euro positive, but losing momentum
Positioning remains skewed in favour of the Euro (EUR), although the momentum behind that bias appears to be fading.
According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), speculative net long positions rose to around 163.4K contracts in the week to February 3, the highest level since August 2023. At the same time, institutional accounts, largely hedge funds, lifted short positions to nearly 218.5K contracts, levels not seen since May 2023.
Open interest edged lower to roughly 910.5K contracts. That subtle decline suggests participation may be plateauing rather than accelerating further.
Focus back to the US; dollar risks linger
Near term: The US Dollar remains the dominant driver, as labour market data, inflation releases and the broader geopolitical backdrop are likely to shape price action in the sessions ahead.
Risks: A Fed that stays cautious for longer continues to underpin the Greenback, particularly against an ECB that is effectively in wait and see mode. On the charts, a clear break below the 200 day Simple Moving Average (SMA) would increase the probability of a deeper corrective move.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly EUR/USD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Euro-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
EUR/USD: US Dollar to remain pressured until uncertainty fog dissipates Premium
The EUR/USD pair lost additional ground in the first week of February, settling at around 1.1820. The reversal lost momentum after the pair peaked at 1.2082 in January, its highest since mid-2021.
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Editors' picks
AUD/USD consolidates below 0.7100 as traders await US CPI report
AUD/USD stalls the previous day's retracement slide from the vicinity of mid-0.7100s, or a three-year high, as traders move to the sidelines ahead of Friday's release of the US consumer inflation figures. In the meantime, the divergent RBA-Fed outlooks might continue to support spot prices amid subdued US Dollar demand, though the risk-off impulse could act as a headwind for the Aussie.
USD/JPY recovers from two-week low ahead of US inflation data
The USD/JPY gains some positive traction during the Asian session, snapping a four-day losing streak amid some repositioning ahead of the US CPI report. Meanwhile, expectations that Japan's PM Sanae Takaichi could be more fiscally responsible, along with bets that the BoJ will stick to its policy normalization path and the risk-off mood, could support the safe-haven Japanese Yen. The US Dollar, on the other hand, struggles to attract buyers amid dovish Fed expectations and threats to the central bank's independence, which, in turn, should cap the currency pair.
Gold falls to near $4,900 as selling pressure intensifies
Gold price faces some selling pressure around $4,910 during the early Asian session on Friday. The yellow metal tumbles over 3.50% on the day, with algorithmic traders appearing to amplify the precious metal’s sudden drop. Traders will closely monitor the release of the US Consumer Price Index inflation report for January, which will be released later on Friday.
Ethereum investors face huge unrealized losses following price slump
US spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds flipped negative again on Wednesday after recording net outflows of $129.1 million, reversing mild inflows seen at the beginning of the week, per SoSoValue data. Fidelity's FETH was responsible for more than half of withdrawals, posting outflows of $67 million.
A tale of two labour markets: Headline strength masks underlying weakness
Undoubtedly, yesterday’s delayed US January jobs report delivered a strong headline – one that surpassed most estimates. However, optimism quickly faded amid sobering benchmark revisions.
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EUR/USD Yearly forecast
How could EUR/USD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2025 EUR/USD forecast!
EUR/USD FORECAST 2025
In the EUR/USD 2025 Forecast , FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik suggests that the macroeconomic landscape favors the US Dollar (USD) over the Euro (EUR), with a potential return to parity between the currencies.
While Donald Trump’s upcoming presidency may introduce higher inflation-related risks for the United States (US), the US economy demonstrated the strongest pandemic recovery among G7 nations, as measured by GDP, starting under Trump’s previous administration and following under Joe Biden.
From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair faces a bearish outlook for 2025, with technical indicators suggesting further declines after breaking below key moving averages and encountering strong resistance near 1.1200. The pair could test the 1.0330 zone, with the potential for parity if selling pressure persists. While a bearish trend is most likely, a sudden EU economic recovery or US weakness could push the pair toward 1.0600, with a possible rally to 1.1000 later in the year, though not before mid-2025.
MOST INFLUENTIAL FACTORS IN 2025 FOR EUR/USD
The year will be politically marked by Trump’s return to the White House. A Republican government is seen as positive for financial markets, but Trump’s pledge to cut taxes and impose tariffs on foreign goods and services may introduce uncertainty to both the political and economic landscape.
In the Eurozone, attention will focus on political turmoil in Germany and France, the two largest economies in the bloc. Germany is set to hold snap elections following a no-confidence vote against Chancellor Olaf Scholz in the Bundestag.
Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD
The European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone. With its beginnings in Germany in 1998, the ECB’s mandate is to maintain price stability in the Eurozone, so that the Euro’s (EUR) purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. As an entity independent of individual European Union countries and institutions, the ECB targets a year-on-year increase in consumer prices of 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is controlling the money supply. This involves, for instance, setting interest rates throughout the Eurozone. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde has been the President of the ECB since November 1, 2019. Her speeches, statements and comments are an important source of volatility, especially for the Euro and the currencies traded against the European currency.
ECB official website , on X and YouTubeThe Federal Reserve (Fed)
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States (US) and it has two main targets: to maintain the unemployment rate at its lowest possible levels and to keep inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors and the partially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes eight scheduled meetings in a year to review economic and financial conditions. It also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The FOMC Minutes, which are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve weeks after the latest meeting, are a guide to the future US interest-rate policy.
Fed official website , on X and FacebookChristine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Lagarde, who graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense, became President of the European Central Bank (ECB) on November 1, 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007-2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005-2007).
Lagarde on ECB's Profile and WikipediaJerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. He was sworn in on May 23, 2022, for a second term as Chairman ending May 15, 2026. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and WikipediaECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
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About EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a term used t o describe the most important currency pairs in the world. This group also includes GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD , USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD . The popularity of the Euro Dollar pair stems from its representation of two of the world’s largest economies: the Eurozone and the United States.
The EUR/USD is one of the most widely traded currency pairs in the Forex market, where the Euro serves as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. It accounts for more than half of the total trading volume in the Forex market, making gaps almost inexistent, let alone sudden reversals caused by breakaway gaps.
The EUR/USD is usually quiet during the Asian session, as economic data influencing the pair is usually released during the European or US sessions. Activity increases as European traders begin their day, leading to heightened trading volume. This activity slows around midday during the European lunch break but picks up again when US markets come online.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', referring to the most important and widely traded pairs in the world. The pair is also known as “the Cable”, a term originating in the mid-19th century that refers to the first transatlantic telegraph connecting Great Britain and the United States. As a closely watched and widely traded currency pair, it features the British Pound as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. For that reason, macroeconomic data from both the United States and the United Kingdom significantly impacts its price. One notable event that affected the volatility of the pair was Brexit.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', a group of the most important currency pairs in the world. The Japanese Yen, known for its low interest rate, is frequently used in carry trades, making it one of the most traded currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY pair, the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen serves as the counter currency.
Trading USD/JPY is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although the latter nickname is more frequently associated with the GBP/JPY pair. USD/JPY usually has a positive correlation with other pairs like USD/CHF and USD/CAD, as all three use the US Dollar as the base currency. The value of the pair is often influenced by interest-rate differentials between the two central banks: the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).