- The declining trend unfolds into three sets of impulsive waves.
- Terra's volume remains skewed since the rug-pull crash in May.
- Invalidation of the bullish idea is a breach above $7.77.
Terra Luna's price may be headed lower than investors may be thinking. Key levels have been defined.
Tera's LUNA price could take investors by surprise in the coming days. Since August, the forecast was made that LUNA could potentially 10x in market value based on on-chain and technical analysis. During the second week of September, LUNA pulled off a whopping 3x rally within 24 hours, which was a positive affirmation of the flamboyant 10x hypothesis.
LUNA price currently auctions at $2.50 as the bulls are struggling to hold support at the 8-day moving average. Since the 3x bull run, the bears have taken over the market, forging a 65% decline within two weeks. When subdividing the wave count of the downtrend, it is possible to fit three sets of impulsive 5-wave structures.
This is a problematic signal for inventors in the market and a stay-out-of-the-way indicator for those that have remained. Additionally, the volume profile indicator remains skewed from the rug-pull crash during May. Thus, properly identifying the strength of the bulls amidst the recent 300% rise is even more challenging.
LUNA 4-Hour Chart
Although LUNA's on-chain metrics have shown considerable bullish gestures, having an alternative thesis can be beneficial when understanding when markets change. Based on the recent price action, this forecast considers an additional 35% decline as a possible outcome for the Terra LUNA price. Such a move would contribute to a much broader symmetrical triangle thesis that would lock LUNA's price into more range-bound price action between $1.65 and $4.00 throughout Q4.
Invalidation of the bearish thesis targeting $1.65 is a breach above the recent swing high at $7.77. If the bulls can breach this level, the 10x rally would likely be underway. A $28 target could result in a more than 1,000% increase from the current LUNA price.
In the following video, our analysts deep dive into the price action of LUNA, analyzing key levels of interest in the market. -FXStreet Team
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