XRP price directionless, Ripple ruling at risk of being thrown out as it faces rejection by two federal judges

Ripple (XRP) ruling from July 2023 differentiates between XRP secondary market sales and institutional sales of the token by Ripple. Per the July ruling by Judge Analisa Torres, the altcoin is identified as a “non-security” in transactions on exchanges. 

The ruling is in jeopardy as two federal judges have thrown out Judge Torres's application of the Howey Test to XRP, and American Journalist Charles Gasparino highlights the incoherence. 

Daily digest market movers: Ripple ruling at risk of being thrown out

• Ripple Labs’ token XRP was classified as a “non-security” in secondary market sales and a “security” in institutional sales made by the payment remittance firm. 
• The classification by Judge Analisa Torres, in the July 13, 2023 ruling, relied on the US Supreme Court’s Howey test, a legal framework that helps identify whether an asset is an investment contract and therefore a security under securities laws. 
• Judge Torres applied Howey and divided XRP sales in two categories, however this application is being questioned by US Federal judges in the Coinbase and Terraform Labs’ lawsuits. 
• Charles Gasparino, an American journalist and XRP expert states that rejection of Judge Torres’ ruling by judges shows the “incoherence” of her Howey application. 
• Gasparino remarks that no one can guarantee the ruling, it may get thrown out and XRP may be declared as an unregistered security, he considers the reaction from the federal judges as a sign that Judge Torres’ legal analysis is “faulty.”

• Ripple’s Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty re-read the Coinbase ruling from Wednesday and said that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has sold the Judge a bill of good to accept in the Coinbase lawsuit. 
• The difficult part, where the SEC produces evidence, comes next, and Alderoty expects the regulator to face the heat at this stage.

• XRP price decline comes alongside whale accumulation of the altcoin. On-chain metrics point at whales “buying the dip.”
• Data from Santiment shows that XRP whales holding between 10 million and 100 million tokens added 190 million XRP tokens to their holdings between March 27 and April 1. This cohort is important because it typically accumulates during the dip and takes profits at local tops, as seen in the Santiment chart for a six-month timeframe. 
• A larger whale cohort, holding over 100 million XRP tokens was also seen accumulating, in the chart below. 

XRP supply distribution

Technical analysis: XRP price rangebound above key psychological level

Ripple price has been consolidating between a tight range, $0.9380 (July 13, 2023 peak) and $0.4226 (August 14, 2023 low) for over 460 days. The development has resulted in a flip of the $0.67 support level into resistance for the altcoin. 

Currently, XRP price is trading above the psychologically important $0.60 level, the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 42 for over a year, hinting that buyers remain in control of Ripple. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) is hovering above the zero level, its green bars consecutively taller, suggesting that there is a dominant bullish momentum in the altcoin. 

XRP price is likely primed for a recovery to the year-to-date peak of $0.7440 (March 11, 2024). This is roughly 16% away from the current price of $0.6233. 

XRP/USDT 1-week price chart 

There is a likelihood of a recovery in XRP price however traders need to watch Bitcoin price for cues. A Bitcoin price correction could jeopardize altcoin gains and take XRP and other large market cap tokens down with it. 

In the downside scenario, XRP price could tumble to the January 28 low of $0.4853 (a crash of nearly 20%) or the weekly support level at $0.4117.