Record high uptober is over: Say hello to buoyant Moonvember

Following the good month of October nicknamed 'Uptober' among Bitcoiners, Bitcoin 'Moonvember' begins on a positive note after BTC saw the highest monthly close it has ever had.

Bitcoin has started this week in an uptrend, erasing slight losses it had over the weekend.

October 2021 has become the best month for BTC price since December 2020, even beating the Q1 performance. For the month of October, BTC posted a 39.9% gain to end at 61,330.0 on October 31, its first-ever monthly close above the psychological threshold of $60,000.

BTC/USD monthly chart. Source: TradingView

Overall, that adds to the positive outlook for the $2.62 trillion crypto market. At the time of writing, the crypto king traded at $61,741.39, up 0.7% so far this week. 

Bitcoin-to-the-moon traders expect that the number one crypto will enjoy another record-breaking month ahead.  

There's a relatively widespread view that BTC prices and US stocks prices correlate. Since November has traditionally been the best month for US stocks, the odds are in favor of equities acting as a catalyst for more gains in bitcoin. As can be seen in the chart below, there is a positive correlation between the S&P 500 and BTC prices in some time intervals. Although the patterns don’t exactly repeat throughout the chart, there’re definitely some common moves.   

Strong technicals support a bullish picture

Considering the Bitcoin network fundamentals, this week will be the eighth consecutive week to see a positive difficulty adjustment — something that hasn't happened since 2018. Since China cracked down on its miners in May, the mining difficulty has more than offset the losses it caused. This week, the difficulty will increase to 21.89 trillion, about 3 trillion below all-time highs.

The hash rate similarly continues to trend toward new all-time highs. Currently, the average hash rate stands at about 159 EH/s — closer than ever to the April record of 180 EH/s.

According to popular on-chain analyst Willy Woo, the crypto bull run could extend to 2022 because of a large number of long-term holders of Bitcoin among HNWIs who create buying pressure for BTC.

“We’re at that point now where all the new guys that bought in during the first half of this year, they’re now long-term holders and they’re at the peak. They’re providing the lock-up that’s necessary to drive us into the six-figure level,” he said.

According to Kraken's research, the unprecedented price gains and run to all-time highs weren't enough to convince holders to sell BTC. The September sell-off appeared to have been a retracement, rather than a full-blown trend reversal. “On-chain metrics and indicators such as BTC’s HODL Waves 1-Year Revived Supply indicate that demand from long-term holders remains strong, despite the latest more than +50% price rise offering a good profit-taking opportunity,” it said. 

Crypto technical analyst Matthew Hyland said that based on the Bollinger Bands Indicator, a huge move in BTC price could follow soon. The same thing has already happened this year every time bands squeezed that much.

In my view, resistance at $65,000 is likely to cap any upside in BTC this week. A sustained breakout could push bitcoin to test resistance at $70,000 before any pullback.

Alts to keep an eye on in November

As analysts note, November is clearly going to be a great month for altcoins since the weekly close confirmed the RSI breakout that started in February. Standing currently at 1.47 trillion, it appears that the altcoin market cap is about to surge.

Weekly crypto total market cap excluding BTC. Source: TradingView

Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum (ETH), the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, hit a new all-time high price on Friday when it rose beyond $4,400, a level unseen since May when it reached its previous record of $4,379. It managed to outperform bitcoin, posting a 42.93% monthly gain for the month of October. 

ETH/USD monthly chart. Source: TradingView

ETH recovered quickly from last week's short-lived correction, staying above the $3,969 support level. On the daily timeframe, the RSI hovers below 70 points, suggesting a bullish bias, with ETH heading to its psychological level at $5,000. At the time of writing, ETH traded at $4,364.64 with a $514.09 billion market cap, up 1.77% so far this week. 

Shiba Inu (SHIB)

A popular meme token’s 828% monthly gain in October made it the month’s top-performing crypto among those with a market cap of at least $10 billion. It reached an all-time high on Oct. 28. At the time of writing, it traded at $0.00007054 with a $38.75 billion market cap, up 5.42% so far this week. 

SHIB/USD monthly chart. Source: TradingView

Polkadot (DOT)

Polkadot is particularly worthy of attention as its para chain slot auctions will kick off in November. Parachains allow the Polkadot network to parallelize transaction processing and achieve scalability while sharing the network’s security. Polkadot has grown exclusively recently, cementing itself as the eighth-largest cryptocurrency in terms of market cap.

Monthly DOT/USD chart. Source: TradingView

For the month of October, the DOT price advanced by 49.35% trading at $49.12 at the time of writing, up 14.9% so far this week.  

Stellar Lumens (XLM)

Meanwhile, another strong performance in October came from Stellar Lumens. It marked a 33.9% monthly gain, closing at $0.37328 on Oct 31. November is a good time to closely watch Stellar, all the more so because it recently announced a partnership with MoneyGram, one of the world’s largest money-transfer services. 

Monthly XLM/USD chart. Source: TradingView

Sandbox (SAND)

Virtual worlds are becoming increasingly popular. A cryptocurrency is a perfect form of payment in these metaverses. Sandbox players can build, own, monetize their gaming experiences, and create NFTs. Sandbox gained a whopping 105.8% in October, currently trading at $2.72 per SAND, up 64.20% for the past 24 hours. 

SAND/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView

Decentraland (MANA)

Ethereum-based token, MANA allows users to create, experience, and monetize content and applications. It has been among the top gainers recently and is worth paying attention to. Decentraland surged by over 300% in October, hitting an all-time high price of $4.69 on October 31. Since the start of the year, MANA’s price has witnessed many bullish moves with each next one higher than the previous one. The current price is $3.25 per MANA, up 18.71% for the past 24 hours.

MANA/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView

Conclusion

According to ongoing developments in the crypto space and strong technical indicators favoring a bullish bias, it is likely that an uptrend will continue throughout the year, with BTC price possibly breaking it's all-time high at least once or more likely two or three times. Whenever price spikes, a correction is likely to follow, just like it did in October. Profit-taking always happens after a significant price increase when market participants lock in gains. However, these periods of correction have become shorter and less dramatic. So, the overall picture is obviously bullish.

Altcoins tend to follow in bitcoin's footsteps, with the bullish momentum in BTC catalyzing a bull run for other cryptocurrencies. This is what we currently see: Ethereum, Polkadot, Solana, Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, and others — they’re all heading towards or have already surpassed their all-time highs.